As an aside, Air [...]]]> San Diego State came within 5 points of ruining TCU’s perfect season, not to mention potentially removing about a million bucks from their own budget next year (although they might have done that anyway).  Also, Utah got embarrassed, New Mexico returned to its losing ways, and Wyoming is not very good at football.

As an aside, Air Force’s regular season ends this Thursday night.  Do the folks at the MWC office know that without a championship game, you’re allowed to keep playing football until December 4? Because CSU and Wyoming will both call it a year after Saturday too.

BYU 49, Colorado State 10- So much for the Rams putting up a fight and possibly sending BYU out with a loss.  The Cougars are now back to 5-5 and in nice position to find a bowl this year after all.  Next Week: New Mexico at BYU, Colorado State at Wyoming

Notre Dame 38, Utah 3- Utah looked bad beginning, middle, and end of this one.  Meanwhile, C-USA is giddy over there, considering unranked Tulsa took down the Irish a couple weeks ago.  The loss was enough to drop the Utes to the very edge of the major polls, and it doesn’t get any easier next week.  Next Week: Utah at San Diego State

TCU 40, San Diego State 35- SDSU jumped out early, faded through the middle, then staged a furious rally to get back into the game.  TCU escaped by recovering the final onside kick and running out the clock from there.  Next Week: Utah at San Diego State, TCU is idle.

Air Force 48, New Mexico 23- Air Force continues its winning ways with a one that was never in doubt.  Next Week: New Mexico at BYU, Air Force at UNLV (Thursday)

UNLV 42, Wyoming 16- Wyoming follows up its loss to struggling New Mexico with a blowout to struggling UNLV, and takes their place as the surprisingly worst team in the MWC.  Next Week: Air Force at UNLV (Thursday), Colorado State at Wyoming

Mountain West Standings

2010 Mountain West Champions

There are no more championship scenarios, as TCU has clinched the league crown for the second consecutive year, no small feat in a season where San Diego State and Air Force elevated their level of play to new heights, Utah was still dangerous, and even BYU, with a dismal start, has surged to the finish.  Congratulations to TCU, now one win away from their second undefeated regular season.

Mountain West Power Rankings

1. TCU
2. San Diego State
3. Utah
4. Air Force
5. BYU
6. Colorado State
7. UNLV
8. New Mexico
9. Wyoming

2:00 PM, The Mtn.- BYU at Colorado State: This may be the end of an old rivalry, with the two [...]]]> The Mountain West is being totally boring and playing all their games on Saturday.  All 9 teams are in action, with Utah heading to South Bend looking for redemption after getting knocked around by TCU last week.

2:00 PM, The Mtn.- BYU at Colorado State: This may be the end of an old rivalry, with the two playing 69 times since 1922.  Neither team is having much of a season, although BYU has a chance at reaching a bowl if they can beat CSU and then New Mexico next week (Utah awaits later, and I don’t think the Cougars want their season riding on that game).  No doubt the Rams would love to send BYU packing by wrecking their final season in the MWC. Line: BYU by 6.5.  BYU has been so up and down this season, that a CSU win would not surprise me at all, and I think they might just be competitive in this one.  I’ll take the Rams to keep it close, but BYU edges it out, 31-28.

2:30 PM, NBC- # 15 Utah at Notre Dame: Notre Dame is in the same boat as BYU- 4-5 with a very difficult game (USC) to end the season, although Utah is a much stouter test than CSU would pose.  That being said, Utah should be the better team if they don’t a) lose interest or heart after the loss to TCU and b) get swept up in all the Notre Dame mystique nonsense.  Line: Utah by 5.5.  I am pretty concerned about a Utah letdown, but I think they’ll get through it and claim the win a lot like Tulsa did.  31-24.

4:00 PM, Versus- San Diego State at #3 TCU: San Diego State has had a great season, will play in a bowl game, and could even challenge Utah for second in the league later on.  TCU will roll them.  Line: TCU by 27.5.  Sounds about right.  35-7 TCU, maybe worse.

6:00 PM, The Mtn- New Mexico at Air Force: I suspect that New Mexico will follow in the footsteps of Western Kentucky and Eastern Michigan, after they got their first wins in a long time- by losing, and losing a lot.  Line: Air Force by 33.  I don’t think the Falcons will be challenged, but I’m not sure they bother running it up that much.  I think they win a comfortable 35-10 kind of game.

10:00 PM, The Mtn- Wyoming at UNLV: Two teams on the wrong end of dismal seasons, just playing out the string.  I think UNLV is primed for the upset, such as it is.  Line: Wyoming by 5.  I think UNLV sneaks up on them in a resoundingly uninteresting game.  21-20 UNLV.

Pick Summary:
CSU +6.5 vs. BYU
Utah -5.5 at Notre Dame
TCU -27.5 vs. San Diego State
New Mexico +33 at Air Force
UNLV +5 vs. Wyoming

Air Force 42, Army 22- Things started slow in West Point, with Army leading 6-0 [...]]]> Much like the matching game happening on the blue turf, the big showdown in the Mountain West became a dud when TCU blew the doors off of Utah.  Elsewhere, the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy returns to Colorado Springs, and New Mexico won a game.

Air Force 42, Army 22- Things started slow in West Point, with Army leading 6-0 after a quarter.  Air Force turned things around quickly, and dominated the remaining 45 minutes to claim military academy supremacy for the first time in eight years. Next Week: Army at Kent State, New Mexico at Air Force

BYU 55, UNLV 7- BYU suddenly has a very good chance to become bowl eligible, with CSU and New Mexico ahead.  Meanwhile, UNLV can only hope for a better season next year.  Next Week: BYU at Colorado State, Wyoming at UNLV

TCU 47, Utah 7- There isn’t much to say about this game that hasn’t been said, but TCU made an emphatic statement about their place in the national picture, and now become the biggest Alabama fans in the country.  Next Week: San Diego State at TCU, Utah at Notre Dame

New Mexico 34, Wyoming 31- The Lobos broke the losing streak (leaving Akron alone with the longest) with a final-seconds field goal, which may leave Wyoming as this year’s trivia answer.  Next Week: Wyoming at UNLV, New Mexico at Air Force

San Diego State 24, Colorado State 19- No winning streak for the Rams, as San Diego State wins their fourth in a row.  The fun stops there for the Aztecs, staring down consecutive games with TCU and Utah.  Next Week: BYU at Colorado State, SDSU at TCU

Mountain West Standings

Conference Championship Picture

Football on the Fringe is boldly projecting TCU to be your 2010 Conference Champions.  San Diego State could actually say something about all that, but we don’t see that as being very likely.  A win this weekend seals the deal for TCU, while Utah still has a chance if both SDSU and New Mexico were to stop the Frogs. All other teams are mathematically eliminated.

Mountain West Power Rankings

Utah may have been beaten badly Saturday, but there’s little to suggest that any of the other 7 deserve the #2 spot yet.  SDSU will get their shot in a couple weeks, but unless the Utes get annihilated by Notre Dame, they’re the second best team in the league.

1. TCU
2. Utah
3. San Diego State
4. Air Force
5. BYU
6. Colorado State
7. UNLV
8. New Mexico
9. Wyoming

2:00 PM, The Mtn- San Diego State at Wyoming: The season comes down to this for the Cowboys- find a way to beat SDSU, and they could conceivably win out and find a bowl home at 6-6.  Meanwhile, [...]]]> This is a quieter week in the western leagues, matchup-wise, before the fireworks start next week (TCU-Utah, Hawaii-Boise).

Mountain West

2:00 PM, The Mtn- San Diego State at Wyoming: The season comes down to this for the Cowboys- find a way to beat SDSU, and they could conceivably win out and find a bowl home at 6-6.  Meanwhile, the Aztecs are on the brink of bowl eligibility themselves, but they would rather get that 6th win before facing TCU and Utah.  Line: San Diego State by 10.  Wyoming’s record belies stats that suggest that they’re really a pretty good team, and maybe they finally prove that today.  Not sure they can win, but it’ll be closer than the 10.  SDSU escapes, 31-28.

6:00 PM, The Mtn- New Mexico at Colorado State: The 117th offense in the country heads north to face the 111th, but this isn’t even the worst matchup of the day.  CSU will be looking for some revenge, as they were New Mexico’s only win last year. Line: Colorado State by 16.  Let me just put this out there- if you’re wagering on this game, you have a problem.  CSU by 10, tops, 20-10.

7:30 PM, CBS College- #8 Utah at Air Force: Air Force has trailed off after a great start got them ranked, but they have TCU and Utah in back-to-back weeks, which would be tough for anyone.  Line: Utah by 7.  This should be a good game for a while, but I think Utah will pull away sooner or later.  38-14.

11:00 PM, CBS College- #4 TCU at UNLV: Your insomniac special for the week, but it may not help- TCU should pound the Rebels.  Line: TCU by 35.  I’m going to say that the odd time (10 PM TCU time) and a non-motivating opponent keep this one a little closer, TCU still runs away with it, 35-7.

WAC

4:00 PM- San Jose State at New Mexico State: Ladies and gentlemen, this might be the most unwatchable football game of the year.  The nation’s worst scoring offense (10 points per game) goes to face the second-worst (12 ppg).  You don’t get matchups like this every day.  Line: San Jose State by 3.  Going entirely based on that one statistic, I’m going to take NMSU in the upset, 13-10.

10:30 PM, ESPNU- Utah State at Nevada: Nevada has to wait all day after a 2 week gap since they last played, losing at Hawaii.  Utah State has been woeful since beating BYU, and this is a tough place to try to turn that tide. Line: Nevada by 26.  For my money, Nevada’s defense isn’t good enough to promise an almost four touchdown win.  31-10 for the Pack.

11:30 PM- Idaho at Hawaii: Hawaii is proving to be a tough place to play for WAC teams, especially ones as defensibly questionable as Idaho has been.  An upset is possible, but it might be a long night for the Vandals. Line: Hawaii by 15.  Idaho has surprised me several times this year, but usually by losing.  Hawaii will run away with this one, 42-21.

Pick Summary:
Wyoming +10 vs. San Diego State
New Mexico +16 at Colorado State
Utah -7 at Air Force
UNLV +35 vs. TCU
New Mexico State +3 vs. San Jose State
Utah State +26 at Nevada
Hawaii -15 vs. Idaho

BYU 25, Wyoming 20- BYU pulled away early, but had to scratch and claw to hold onto the lead as Wyoming nearly [...]]]> If you knew nothing of the season so far, the results on Saturday would be exactly what you would have expected.  But if you have been following along, the scores would at least be surprising.

BYU 25, Wyoming 20- BYU pulled away early, but had to scratch and claw to hold onto the lead as Wyoming nearly took the lead late in the 4th quarter.  This was a game Wyoming had to have if they hoped to make the postseason, while BYU still has some hope of making it back to 6-6. Next Week: San Diego State at Wyoming, BYU is idle.

Utah 59, Colorado State 6- Perhaps intending to make a statement, Utah had a much easier time with CSU than TCU did a few weeks ago, although neither game was ever in doubt.  Next Week: Utah at Air Force, New Mexico at Colorado State

TCU 38, Air Force 7- The result is no surprise here, but I expected the Falcons to put up a bigger fight than they ultimately did- a year ago, AFA was the closest team to the Frogs in the regular season.  Next Week: TCU at UNLV, Utah at Air Force

San Diego State 30, New Mexico 20- This one goes in the “bigger blowout than the score suggests” pile, as SDSU was up 30-13 until the final seconds.  The Aztecs are now one win away from bowl eligibility. Next Week: SDSU at Wyoming, New Mexico at Colorado State

Mountain West Standings

Conference Championship Race

Air Force has fallen away with consecutive losses, and San Diego State has a loss already before facing the leaders, which means the season is essentially down to TCU and Utah, just like everyone expected all along.  We are now 11 days from that showdown, although Utah still has the season ender with BYU, never a game to take lightly.  They face Notre Dame along the way, although that game has no impact on the MWC race.

Week 8 Power Rankings

1. TCU
2. Utah
3. San Diego State
4. Air Force
5. BYU
6. Wyoming
7. Colorado State
8. UNLV
9. New Mexico

Colorado State 43, UNLV 10- CSU’s second win of the year is their first resounding win in a very [...]]]> Week 7 in the Mountain West saw business as usual at the top, but some shuffling of the rest of the league.  I could have just copied my WAC intro sentence and changed some of the words, really.

Colorado State 43, UNLV 10- CSU’s second win of the year is their first resounding win in a very long time.  UNLV seems to somehow be getting worse as the season goes on.  Next Week: Colorado State at Utah, Wyoming is idle.

TCU 31, BYU 3- BYU slowed TCU’s offense for a while, but the Horned Frogs defense was smothering.  BYU’s press release was proud of the fact that they disrupted TCU’s shutout streak.  TCU has now outscored 3 MWC opponents 103-3.  Next Week: Wyoming at BYU, Air Force at TCU

Utah 30, Wyoming 6- Wyoming’s defense played well, but the offense was entirely too inept and couldn’t take advantage of opportunities handed to them by the Utes.  Next Week: Wyoming at BYU, Colorado State at Utah

San Diego State 27, Air Force 25- SDSU bounces back from their loss at BYU to pin one on Air Force, who might have tied the game if not for two failed 2 point conversion attempts.  Next Week: San Diego State at New Mexico, Air Force at TCU

I managed to go 0-4 in my picks this week, the first time I’ve done that in one conference.  Picked blowouts to be close games, and vice versa.  This lowered my total for the week to 14-12-1, which brings the year-long record to 87-76-2 against the spread.

Mountain West Standings

Conference Championship Race

TCU and Utah are obviously in full control, heading toward their November 6 showdown.  San Diego State controls its own destiny still, while Air Force needs to win out and see SDSU drop one more game to win the league.  Everybody else in the league is one or two losses from being eliminated from bowl eligibility.

Week 7 Power Rankings

SDSU moves back ahead of BYU, as they now have a 3 way, 1-1 round robin with Air Force and BYU has had a substantially inferior season otherwise.

1. TCU
2. Utah
3. San Diego State
4. Air Force
5. BYU
6. Colorado State
7. Wyoming
8. UNLV
9. New Mexico

2:00 PM, The Mtn- UNLV at Colorado State: Two teams looking to turn their seasons around after bad starts, with moments of hope. Neither has given reason to be very confident that they’ll win this one.  Line: Colorado State by [...]]]> Just four games in the Mountain West, just like the WAC, as it’s all league play today.

2:00 PM, The Mtn- UNLV at Colorado State: Two teams looking to turn their seasons around after bad starts, with moments of hope. Neither has given reason to be very confident that they’ll win this one.  Line: Colorado State by 3.5.  That’s the direction I was leaning, only since it’s a home game.  If the line were 2.5, I’d take CSU, but I think this could be a 3 point game either way.  CSU 23-20.

4:00 PM, Versus, BYU at #5 TCU: BYU bounced back a little bit with a win over San Diego State last week, but it seems unlikely that they’ll be competitive today.  Line: TCU by 29.5.  My first thought was that 29 was too much, but TCU has relished stomping rivals this year, and I could see them doing it again today.  TCU 49-13.

6:00 PM, The Mtn- #10 Utah at Wyoming: Wyoming is a better team than their record shows, and they may slow Utah down for a while, but it won’t be enough in the end.  Line: Utah by 21.  I think Wyoming could keep this one closer than that.  Utah 28-14.

8:00 PM, CBS College- #23 Air Force at San Diego State: SDSU fell back to earth last week at the hands of BYU, while Air Force continues their roll.  Their scoring production has been down, and they’re going to need to pick it up to win in San Diego.  Line: Air Force by 1.  Vegas seems skeptical of the Falcons offense too, but I think they have enough to win by a little more than that.  31-24 Air Force.

New Mexico will go a week without a loss for the first time all year.

Record: 5-1, 3-0 Mountain West Highlights: Wins over BYU and Navy, both for the first time in years.  #1 rushing offense in [...]]]> Most of the Mountain West has reached the halfway point, so we’ll take a look at how the first six games have gone for Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, TCU, UNLV, and Wyoming.

Air Force

Record: 5-1, 3-0 Mountain West
Highlights: Wins over BYU and Navy, both for the first time in years.  #1 rushing offense in America, well ranked in most stats.
Weak Points: Offense yards aren’t always turning into points- 3 game stretch only scoring 24, 20, and 14 before Colorado State game.
Grade: A. Nothing to complain about with Air Force- their only loss is by 3 to an unbeaten Oklahoma, by 3 and closing fast.
Remaining Games: at San Diego State, at TCU, Utah, at Army, New Mexico, at UNLV
Best Case: 5-1 for a 10-2 season and a trip to the Las Vegas Bowl.  I think they might be able to turn back TCU or Utah, but doing both is pretty unthinkable
Worst Case: 4-2 and still landing a nice bowl.  Air Force will be big favorites over everybody who isn’t TCU or Utah.
Prediction:4-2.  I think they’re still a step down from those two, but clearly the third best team in the MWC.  I think the Vegas bowl will think hard about picking the Falcons, but probably the Independence against an ACC opponent.

BYU

Record: 2-4, 1-1 Mountain West
Highlights: Opened the season with a win over a decent Washington team, also beat a decent SDSU group last week.  Pass defense ranked 33rd nationally.
Weak Points: Loss to rival Utah State for the first time in forever, bad losses to Nevada and Florida State.  Offense and defense both rate in the lowest 25% of the country.
Grade: D. BYU is in a rebuilding season and played a lot of good teams in the first half (four are nationally ranked), but the fact is they’re not delivering on the field.  Need to start scoring some points if they want to compete in the second half.
Remaining Games: at TCU, Wyoming, UNLV, at Colorado State, New Mexico, at Utah
Best Case: 4-2 and probably bowl bound somewhere.  BYU hasn’t given any evidence that they might beat TCU or Utah.
Worst Case: 2-4, home for the postseason for the first time in ages.
Prediction: 3-3, just missing bowl eligibility.  BYU isn’t so bad as to lose to the likes of New Mexico, but I think there’s an extra loss somewhere in the Wyoming-UNLV-CSU stretch.

Colorado State

Record: 1-5, 0-2 Mountain West
Highlights: Surprise win over a decent Idaho team, #3 passing offense in the league.
Weak Points: All five losses have been ugly, including rival Colorado and previously lowly Miami (Oh).  Worst pass efficiency defense in America, 115th in scoring offense.
Grade: F. The win over Idaho is good, but otherwise the Rams have been utterly dismal.  They can’t score, they can’t stop anybody…and the opposition hasn’t been nearly as good as what BYU or Air Force has seen so far.
Remaining Games: UNLV, at Utah, New Mexico, at San Diego State, BYU, at Wyoming
Best Case: 3-3, which would be considered salvaging the season.
Worst Case: 0-6, which is possible, but less likely as long as New Mexico is on the schedule.
Prediction:2-4.  CSU has shown they can pull an upset once in a while, and I think there are teams left that they might catch out.

New Mexico

Record: 0-6, 0-2 Mountain West
Highlights: Almost won a game. 42nd nationally in kickoff returns.
Weak Points: Everything.  Ugly losses despite a tough schedule, 13 out of the 17 stats the NCAA tracks are 100th or worse, dead last in scoring defense and, oddly, net punting.
Grade: F. Another dismal year underway in the Mike Locksley year.  Surely he has six games left in his career there.
Remaining Games: San Diego State, at Colorado State, Wyoming, at Air Force, at BYU, TCU
Best Case: 1-5.  They might upset CSU or maybe Wyoming.
Worst Case: 0-6.  This seems more likely.
Prediction:0-6.  CSU has shown signs of life, New Mexico hasn’t, so I’m not seeing a repeat of last year’s win.

TCU

Record: 6-0, 2-0 Mountain West
Highlights: Nice wins over Oregon State and blowout over Baylor.  Top total offense and total defense in the league, #1 total defense in the country.
Weak Points: Passing offense struggling a bit, 4th in the league but 74th overall.
Grade: A. No losses, no problems.  One Boise State upset away from a decent chance at the national title game.
Remaining Games: BYU, Air Force, at UNLV, at Utah, San Diego State, at New Mexico
Best Case: 6-0 and into a BCS Bowl.  With the right combination of losses, maybe even the national title game.
Worst Case: 4-2 and off to the Las Vegas Bowl.
Prediction:6-0.  I think they have the edge over Utah and should run the table for the second year in a row.  Not sure yet which BCS Bowl they might land- any could be possible.

UNLV

Record: 1-5, 1-1 Mountain West
Highlights: Big win over New Mexico, total defense is 5th in the MWC.
Weak Points: Bad losses across the board, including rival Nevada and by 39 at West Virginia.  Offense is ranked 112th in the country, turnover margin is only stat better than 5th in the league.
Grade: D+. Bonus points for a brutal schedule while rebuilding under a new coaching staff.  All five losses came to teams with winning records.
Remaining Games: TCU, at BYU, Wyoming, Air Force, at San Diego State, at Hawaii
Best Case: 3-4, if they really surge somehow.
Worst Case: 0-7.  With New Mexico out of the way, none of the games are easy ones.
Prediction: 1-6.  I think there’s one more win in that group for UNLV, but this is clearly a tough season no matter how it comes out.

Wyoming

Record: 2-4, 0-2
Highlights: Win over a good Toledo team on the road, good punting stats.
Weak Points: Last in America in rushing and total offense (118th in scoring), 116th in total defense.
Grade: C-. Giving the grade a boost for another brutal schedule that won’t get easier this week- four losses to teams that were ranked at the time.  Somewhat remarkable to have even two wins with such bad stats on both sides of the ball.
Remaining Games: Utah, at BYU, San Diego State, at New Mexico, at UNLV, Colorado State
Best Case: 5-1 and back into a bowl game
Worst Case: 1-5 and back to square one.
Prediction: 4-2 for a 6-6 season and hoping for a bowl opening somewhere.  Despite the ugly numbers so far, I think a turnaround is coming against the back half of the league. I could be wrong.

Air Force 49, Colorado State 27- A tidy seven touchdowns in three [...]]]> Business as usual for the Mountain West this week, with the only mildly surprising result being BYU’s win over San Diego State.  Utah obliterated a Big 12 opponent while TCU, Air Force, and New Mexico did exactly what you would expect each team to do.

Air Force 49, Colorado State 27- A tidy seven touchdowns in three quarters meant the Falcons could coast through the 4th quarter, where CSU picked up two of their scores.  CSU has had a better showing in the last three games compared to their first three, but they’re still only 1-5. Next Week: UNLV at Colorado State, Air Force at San Diego State

West Virginia 49, UNLV 10- UNLV wasn’t able to repeat or improve on Marshall taking WVU to overtime a few weeks ago, and found themselves simply overmatched on the East Coast.  Next Week: UNLV at Colorado State

TCU 45, Wyoming 0-  This was about what we expected considering Wyoming was without their starting quarterback, and considering how well the TCU defense has been playing.  Next Week: BYU at TCU, Utah at Wyoming

BYU 24, San Diego State 21- BYU shut down the SDSU run game, and opened the game with 14 points in the first quarter.  The Aztecs rallied back, drawing within 3 at the end, but couldn’t find the winning score at the end.

Utah 68, Iowa State 27- This one was close for a while- ISU led 14-10 after the first quarter, but Utah scored 31 unanswered points in the second quarter, and the rout was on.  This is an important win, especially by this margin, for Utah and for the MWC at large.  Next Week: Utah at Wyoming

New Mexico State 16, New Mexico 14- The Aggies got the job done with a late field goal after trailing for most of the game in a matchup that was just as ugly as we all expected. Next Week: New Mexico State at Fresno State

Picks: 4-2 overall, thinking UNLV would keep it closer and New Mexico State would have an easier time with New Mexico.  All told, 15-13-1 for Week 6 and 73-64-1 for the season.

Mountain West Standings

Week 6 Power Rankings

Not a lot changing here, although we can edge BYU up some and slow down on the San Diego State enthusiasm, at least for now. As close as this one was, in Provo, I won’t hesitate to move SDSU back ahead of the Cougars if conditions warrant later in the season.  I suspect they’ll both lose this week, so it shouldn’t matter too soon.

1. TCU
2. Utah
3. Air Force
4. BYU
5. San Diego State
6. Wyoming
7. UNLV
8. Colorado State
9. New Mexico