Troy (7-5, 6-2) will call themselves [...]]]> The New Orleans Bowl sees Ohio come south to play Troy, who returns to the game after a year away.  The game will be played indoors at the Superdome, which sound a lot better than the weather at the two earlier games today.  Kickoff is at 9 PM Eastern, on ESPN.

Troy

Troy (7-5, 6-2) will call themselves co-champions of the Sun Belt, but the fact is they tied with FIU, who beat them straight up, so the co-champions bit is absurd.  Nonetheless, this was a solid year for the Trojans, who had to replace a ton of players from their (actual) championship team from last year.  Troy was only 1-3 out of conference, but they beat the only MAC team they played, woeful Bowling Green.

Troy gets their work done in the air, #12 nationally in passing yardage.  They’re giving up 31 points per game, although getting wrecked by South Carolina for 69 points has something to do with that average.  On the flipside, even with the USC loss, they haven’t been held under 24 since October.

Ohio

Ohio started 1-3, then ran off 7 straight wins and appeared ready to waltz into the MAC championship game after taking down Temple.  Then, completely inexplicably, they lost to Kent State and finished 2nd in the division behind Miami.  They racked up the wins quietly, but did beat their only Sun Belt foe when Louisiana came to town.

Ohio is a fairly balanced team, but generally a run first orientation.  Each win in their seven game streak saw them score over 30, but in three of their losses they were held to 6, 7, and 13, so there are ways to put the Bobcats off their game.

Prediction

I feel like this should actually be a very competitive football game, and maybe too close to call.  It won’t be what you think Oregon-Auburn is going to be, but it should be a good game nonetheless.  Vegas gives the nod to Troy by 2.5, and I was leaning towards Troy, but I wouldn’t bet big on it.  Troy 30-27.

Arkansas [...]]]> Real Life wrecked the Fringe last week, many apologies if you were looking forward to my WAC wrapup of week 9 or my always mediocre picks for week 10.  But for now, we’ll pretend like everything is normal and get right on with our looks back at Week 10.  Bowl projections and maybe some commentary tomorrow.

Arkansas State 51, Middle Tennessee 24- A-State led most of the way in this one, then turned it into a blowout in the second quarter. Middle Tennessee’s season just gets darker and darker, while Arkansas State is still alive in the hunt for a bowl game. Next Week: Western Kentucky at Arkansas State, North Texas at Middle Tennessee

Florida Atlantic 17, Western Kentucky 16- FAU took the lead early in the 4th, and all WKU needed to do was find a field goal after that, but never got closer than the FAU 40, where an interception ended that drive.  Next Week: Western Kentucky at Arkansas State, Louisiana at Florida Atlantic

Mississippi 42, Louisiana 21- A 24-7 first quarter effectively ended this one, although the Rajin’ Cajuns did get the score as close as 27-21, but managed no points in the second half as Ole Miss pulled away.   Next Week: Louisiana at Florida Atlantic

Troy 41, North Texas 35- Troy bounces back from a loss with a narrow win over a North Texas team that has started to turn around after dismissing their coach.  Next Week: FIU at Troy, North Texas at Middle Tennessee

FIU 42, ULM 35- It took two overtimes, but FIU clings to its hopes of a conference title with a shootout win over the Warhawks.  Next Week: FIU at Troy, ULM at LSU

Sun Belt Standings

Conference Championship Race

Troy and FIU face off Saturday in Alabama for the lead in the conference, and are the only two teams left that control their own destinies.

Arkansas State needs Troy to lose all 3 of their remaining games to have a chance to win the league.

Middle Tennessee State needs Troy to lose all 3 remaining games, and have Arkansas State lose again.  Both MTSU and Arkansas State have opportunities to beat FIU later this season.  A Troy win Saturday eliminates both schools.

ULM could still come back into the picture, but would need Troy to lose twice and FIU to lose all of its remaining games.  An FIU win Saturday eliminates ULM.

Florida Atlantic could re-enter the scene if FIU loses at least two more, and Troy loses at least once before facing FAU.  However, if that happens, there is a distinct possibility of a multi-way tie at 5-3, which would be a huge mess.

Week 10 Power Rankings

Some of the head-to-head results from a couple weeks ago are fading away as the conference championship race sorts itself out.

1. Troy
2. Arkansas State
3. FIU
4. ULM
5. Middle Tennessee
6. FAU
7. Louisiana
8. North Texas
9. Western Kentucky

2:00 PM- Louisiana at Ohio: Louisiana takes it’s struggling operation out of conference [...]]]> Busy week for the Belt, with four games Saturday and a national game Tuesday night (which is technically week 10, but who’s counting).  The highlight of the weekend should be the Shula Bowl, as FIU continues trying to make up ground toward bowl eligibility.

2:00 PM- Louisiana at Ohio: Louisiana takes it’s struggling operation out of conference to face a rapidly improving Ohio team.  Ohio came out of the gate slowly, but is back in the division race, while Louisiana watched Western Kentucky terminate their losing streak on the Cajuns field last week.  Line: Ohio by 14.5.  If Western Kentucky can do it, Ohio should too.  38-14 for the Bobcats.

3:00 PM- North Texas at Western Kentucky: North Texas comes in with an interim coach, while the Hilltoppers have momentum for the first time as a FBS school.  The offense has come to life in recent games, and that should continue Saturday.  Line: Western Kentucky by 6.  For the first time all year, I’m going to pick WKU to win and cover.  35-27.

3:30 PM, CSS/espn3- Troy at ULM: Troy is now into a stretch of games where they simply have to not screw it up.  ULM has beaten weak teams this year, but I don’t see them outgunning Troy, even at home.  Line: Troy by 15.5.  MTSU is the only team Troy has blown out this year, so I’m not so inclined to jump on that line.  I think Troy wins by about 10, 38-28.

4:00 PM- FIU at Florida Atlantic: I’m on the FIU bandwagon, but the reality is that their two wins have come over the worst teams in the Sun Belt.  FAU will be a slightly tougher challenge, not to mention the rivalry aspect, but I think the Panthers should edge this one out.  Line: FIU by 4.5.  I’ll lay the points in this one, I think this one is more like 28-17.

Last week I sputtered to a 1-2 picks record during a dismal 6-10 weekend, my worst yet.  I’ll blame it on not picking the western games. This week, summarized:
Ohio -14.5 vs. Louisiana
Western Kentucky -6 vs. North Texas
ULM +15.5 at Troy
FIU -4.5 at Florida Atlantic

Record: 2-4, 2-0 Sun Belt Highlights: Consecutive wins over Sun Belt teams after 0-4 start against BCS schools.  Had legitimate [...]]]> The rest of the Sun Belt has reached or passed the midpoint of their seasons- FIU, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana, ULM, Middle Tennessee State, Troy, and Western Kentucky are all finally into the last half of their seasons.

FIU

Record: 2-4, 2-0 Sun Belt
Highlights: Consecutive wins over Sun Belt teams after 0-4 start against BCS schools.  Had legitimate chance to win at least 3 of those games.  #1 Total Defense in the league despite schedule.
Weak Points: Big loss to Pittsburgh, special teams numbers low, last in Sun Belt passing efficiency.
Grade: C-. If FIU had a 1-AA, or even a low end C-USA or MAC school, they could be 3-3 by now.
Remaining Games: at Florida Atlantic, ULM, at Troy, at Louisiana, Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee
Best Case: 6-0 for an 8-4 season and the New Orleans Bowl.  Troy will be a tough game, but we don’t know just how good FIU can be yet.
Worst Case: 3-3 for a 5-7 year, home for the postseason.
Prediction: 5-1, 7-5 on the season and off to the first winning season and bowl in FIU history.

Florida Atlantic

Record: 1-5, 0-3 Sun Belt
Highlights: Last second victory over UAB to start the season, #2 pass defense in the league.
Weak Points: 5 game losing streak since opening weekend including to struggling North Texas, worst offense in the league, worst rushing defense.
Grade: D-. After an optimistic start, things have gone badly for the Owls.
Remaining Games: FIU, at Western Kentucky, Louisiana, at Texas, at Middle Tennessee, Troy
Best Case: 2-4 with a rough stretch at the end.
Worst Case: 0-6, now that Western Kentucky has managed to win, there are no easy wins for FAU.
Prediction: 1-5, I think they can win one of the next three, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it.

Louisiana

Record: 2-5, 2-3 Sun Belt
Highlights: 7 point win over decent Arkansas State team, #2 rushing defense in the league.
Weak Points: Blown out by Western Kentucky, last in scoring defense.
Grade: D+. There’s still time to salvage a little of the season, but things are looking bleak right now.
Remaining Games: at Ohio, at Mississippi, at Florida Atlantic, FIU, at ULM
Best Case: 4-1 to piece together a 6-6 season, with a slim chance of picking up a leftover bowl bid somewhere.
Worst Case: 0-5- once you lose to WKU, any loss is possible.
Prediction: 1-4 and probably a new coach for 2011.

ULM

Record: 3-4, 2-2 Sun Belt
Highlights: 4th quarter comeback to avoid being WKU’s first win
Weak Points: Several blowout losses, last in the league in scoring offense, 7th scoring defense.
Grade: C-. Their record is actually better than the statistics might lead one to believe, but it means the Warhawks are on thin ice.
Remaining Games: Troy, at FIU, at LSU, North Texas, Louisiana
Best Case: 3-2 and into the 6-6 pile hoping for something in the postseason.
Worst Case: 0-5. They shouldn’t fall that hard, but the possibility does exist.
Prediction: 2-3 for a 5-7 finish, with a good chance to win over their collapsing rival.

Middle Tennessee State

Record: 3-4, 2-1 Sun Belt
Highlights: Beat both Louisiana schools easily.  #2 total defense, #3 total offense in Sun Belt.
Weak Points: Dismally underachieving vs. expectations, blown out by Troy & Georgia Tech, lost to a terrible Memphis team.
Grade: D+. Points off for falling so far below expectations.  You can’t lose to Troy by 29 at home in a year you’re supposed to win the league.
Remaining Games: at Arkansas State, North Texas, at Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, at FIU
Best Case: 5-0 for an 8-4 year and a bowl bid.
Worst Case: 2-3, well down the league standings, and home for the holidays.
Prediction: 4-1 and invited to the GoDaddy or Birmingham bowls.

Troy

Record: 4-2, 3-0 Sun Belt
Highlights: Avenged 2009 loss to Bowling Green, blowout win over MTSU, #1 in total and scoring offense.
Weak Points: Inexplicable loss to UAB early on, pass defense 8th in the league causing total & scoring defenses to be lower ranked.
Grade: A-. Points off for the UAB loss, but bonus points for nearly coming away from Oklahoma State with a win.  Good start to the season for Troy in a rebuilding year.
Remaining Games: at ULM, at North Texas, FIU, at South Carolina, Western Kentucky, at Florida Atlantic
Best Case: 5-1, Sun Belt Champs again, and off to New Orleans.
Worst Case: 4-2, but still in the postseason. Birmingham Bowl might be a good fit.
Prediction: 5-1. I think FIU will be surging, but getting that game at home might be the difference.

Western Kentucky

Record: 1-6, 1-2 Sun Belt
Highlights: Demolishing Louisiana to break the nation’s longest losing streak. #2 in the league in turnover margin.
Weak Points: 4th quarter collapse against ULM, bottom half or third of the league in most categories.
Grade: D. The season hasn’t been great, but this is a much better team than we saw last year and they’re decisively moving in the right direction, which not every school in the Belt can say.
Remaining Games: North Texas, Florida Atlantic, at Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee State, at Troy
Best Case: 2-3 with a bit of a win streak in there.
Worst Case: 0-5 for a 1-11 season.
Prediction: 1-4, although I think they’ll be competitive in both of their next two or even three games.  It is good that the streak has been broken before they get to those last two games.

The biggest development out of the Belt this week is obviously the Hilltoppers’ surprising win over Louisiana.  I stated before that WKU [...]]]> The Fringe is back after a minor hand injury took us out of commission over the weekend, killing the MWC & WAC previews and any other side-writing.  Hopefully that will all get done this week.

The biggest development out of the Belt this week is obviously the Hilltoppers’ surprising win over Louisiana.  I stated before that WKU should find a win somewhere this year, but I would have guessed North Texas, ULM, or maybe FAU- not the Rajin’ Cajuns, who were considered a pre-season top 3 Sun Belt team.  Elsewhere, Middle Tennessee finally got back on track, as did Arkansas State before the two face off next week.

Arkansas State 37, Florida Atlantic 16- FAU looked like they might have turned a corner, leading 16-9 heading into the fourth quarter.  The Owls then collapsed spectacularly, committing three straight turnovers as A-State put up four touchdowns in about five minutes, leaving with what looked like a blowout. Next Week: Middle Tennessee at Arkansas State (Tuesday 11/2), FIU at FAU

Middle Tennessee 38, ULM 10- The Blue Raiders opened the game up with a 21 point second quarter, and the Warhawks never recovered as Middle Tennessee picks up its second conference win of the year.  Next Week: Middle Tennessee at Arkansas State (Tuesday 11/2), Troy at ULM

Western Kentucky 54, Louisiana 21- There would be no fourth quarter collapse this week as WKU went up early, including a 24 point second quarter that mixed in a defensive touchdown, and even put in 14 in the 4th to keep any hope of a comeback away from the Cajuns.  The longest losing streak in the country now belongs to Akron, and in the Sun Belt it’s just FAU with 5.  Next Week: North Texas at Western Kentucky (can WKU pair up a winning streak?), Louisiana at Ohio

Sun Belt Conference Standings

Sun Belt Championship Race

No change at the top, as Troy and FIU both control their own destinies ahead of their November 13 showdown (both had their second and final bye weeks Saturday).  MTSU showed some signs of life this weekend, but would need Troy to drop two games to claim the conference title outright.  Arkansas State would need Troy to drop 3 games to make a comeback, which is looking pretty unlikely.

Week 8 Power Rankings

WKU’s win only served to muddle the bottom four teams even more, who still have only 5 wins between them.

1. Troy
2. FIU
3. Middle Tennessee State
4. Arkansas State
5. ULM
6. Western Kentucky
7. Louisiana
8. North Texas
9. Florida Atlantic

1:00 PM, CSS- Florida [...]]]> Strange week at Fringe HQ, so most of what was planned for this week will hopefully appear next week.  We didn’t get much chance to cover the firing of Todd Dodge over at North Texas, which surprises me only because it’s come mid-season.  Mike Canales, the offensive coordinator, will take over interim duties.

1:00 PM, CSS- Florida Atlantic at Arkansas State: A-State has been looking for a breakthrough win all season, and while beating ULM and North Texas are good, neither are near the top of the league.  FAU is also off to a slow start, and this is a tough road trip that probably won’t be a season highlight either.  Line: Arkansas State by 8.  FAU hasn’t scored over 17 since week 1, while the Red Wolves offense has been strong. I think they’ll win by plenty, 28-14.

4:30 PM- ULM at Middle Tennessee State: If MTSU is going to turn things around and chase bowl eligibility, it has to start this weekend against a Warhawk team that also has postseason aspirations.  Before the season, this would be considered an easy win for the Blue Raiders, but it’s not that simple anymore.  Line: Middle Tennessee State by 12.  I just don’t trust this team to win by that much.  They should win, and should win by plenty, but I’ll believe it when I see it after two duds from Dwight Dasher.  MTSU squeaks by, 28-27.

5:00 PM- Western Kentucky at Louisiana: Can WKU recover from their fourth quarter collapse last week against ULM and compete this week?  I’m inclined to doubt it, as they get the better of the two Pelican State teams this week.  Line: Louisiana by 6.  I’m comfortable predicting more than that for this one.  Louisiana wins this one 30-14.

Pick Summary:
Arkansas State -8 vs. Florida Atlantic
ULM +12 at Middle Tennessee Stae
Louisiana -6 vs. Western Kentucky