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The Sun Belt has their first league game on Saturday, and two of the schools are just now starting their seasons. Nobody gets a week off and everybody plays on Saturday, so here’s what to look for (all times Eastern, lines as of Thursday morning on Vegas.com).
12:00 PM, ESPNU- Florida Atlantic at Michigan State (Detroit): The Owls head north again, a bit farther this time, after last Thursday’s big upset over UAB. Their offensive attack looked good in Birmingham, but a Big 10 defense is going to be a big step up in competition. Line: Michigan State by 28. I think the Spartans will win comfortably, but Western Michigan did put up 14 on them. I see this one going more like 31-10.
3:30 PM, CSS/Regional TV- Arkansas State at Louisiana: Arkansas State is coming off a good offensive performance against Auburn, while both teams allowed over 50 to SEC schools last week. This one may come down to which team’s defense comes to life this week. Line: Louisiana by 2. Games against bigger and better schools are really not a good place to judge a team, but the Red Wolves still looked the better last week. So I think they win this outright, 34-24.
7:00 PM- Rice at North Texas: Read Post
We still have 27 teams that haven’t lost a game, so they’re still contenders to bust the BCS. I was getting pretty sure that Boise State was coming off the list until Virginia Tech gifted them more than enough time to take the win, and I’m glad they did. But instead of trying to profile all 27, we’re just going to check in on the guys from last week’s list and add a few to fill it back in to 10. We bid a fond farewell to Middle Tennessee State and Northern Illinois, and also to Navy who wasn’t on the list but should have been. They may still have great seasons, but they won’t be in the BCS picture.
Since we’re calling it a watch, we’ll name it for the week coming up. The top 25 (later) is named for the week gone by. It makes no sense, I know.
Like last week, we’re skipping Boise State, TCU, and Utah and sticking with 10 teams that could make a run, or at least win enough games to get noticed before the schedule tears them down. For now, these are presented in no particular order.
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In the end, the Sun Belt won only two games this weekend, but that’s more than the MAC won against FBS competition so it wasn’t all bad. They didn’t get the big upset they wanted against the BCS leagues, but they’ll take one against C-USA from opening night.
Minnesota 24, Middle Tennessee State 17: I had imagined MTSU winning this game, starting off with four or five wins and breaking into the top 25. That may not play out, but MTSU did come back from 14 down to even things out, depth and mistakes just got them in the end (Predicted: MTSU to cover 2, incorrect). Next Week: Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee State
Florida Atlantic 32, UAB 31: Lost in the excitement of the ESPN games was a great effort by FAU, who engineered a fourth quarter comeback and blocked UAB’s final field goal. Of the teams I thought would be bad in rebuilding years, UAB might be living up to the hype the most, but a road win is a big step in the right direction for FAU regardless (Predicted: UAB to cover 14. Wrong again). Next Week: FAU at Michigan State Read Post
The Weekly Wrapups will look back at the games of the weekend, such as it is, and present my conference power rankings. They get shorter when conference play starts.
The MAC went 6-7 against 13 out of conference teams this weekend, a much better start than they had in 2008. Broken down, the league was 6-0 against FCS teams, 0-1 v. Pac-10, SEC, Sun Belt, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, and independent Army. So it wasn’t great, since nobody in the MAC beat a FBS team. That will change Thursday, no matter what. Let’s look at the games.
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This was going to be a longer post until I accidentally deleted it. The short version of the first half of that post- several teams blew out lesser competition, many more got blown out, but credit to Miami, Utah State, and Arkansas State for putting up a fight on the way down. We’ll cover all the [...]
The Sun Belt got an upset last night, although not the one they might have preferred. They’ll have a lot more opportunities this weekend, but I don’t have a good feeling about any of them. Also, I said I’d put Navy & Army here when they don’t play Fringe schools, but Navy plays on Monday so I’ll get them then.
12:21 PM, SEC Network- Louisiana at #21 Georgia: The Rajin’ Cajuns could make a game of this one for a while, but these games against the SEC always come down to depth, and most non-BCS teams just don’t have enough. Line: Georgia by 28. Seems high to me, Georgia should win comfortably but not by that much. Probably something like 38-17.
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Weekend previews will appear in this space on Thursdays and Fridays, to look at the games happening on Saturday and some Sundays. Of course, weeknight games will get special attention, with posts of their own.
Last year, the Mid American Conference had an abysmal opening week. This one should be better, with a ton of FCS games and even some upset potential in the bigger games. We hit the Ball State, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Kent State and Northern Illinois games from tonight in our earlier posts, and we’ll give Toledo & Temple a once-over tomorrow. For now, let’s see what the weekend holds for the rest of the MAC. All games are Saturday, all times Eastern, all rankings USA Today, and lines are from Vegas.com and subject to change before kickoff.
*When Army & Navy play a non-BCS team, we’ll just lump them in with their opponents. When they play against the BCS, I’ll probably include them with the Sun Belt, since they have only 9 teams and are generally in the East.
12:00 PM, ESPN- Miami at #3 Florida: Obviously, this is not a game that many people have the RedHawks penciled in to win. Keeping it close to halftime will be an accomplishment, but after that it’s tough to compete against the depth of an elite program, especially in the 2 PM Florida heat. Line: Gators by 36.5. That’s a lot of points for a team that’s going to probably lead early and get some young players on the field. I’d take Miami plus more than five touchdowns.
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Until about a week ago, the Sun Belt looked like it belonged to Middle Tennessee State. Then it was discovered that star QB Dwight Dasher had taken a $1500 loan from a known gambler, lost it in a poker game, and failed to pay it back. He’s now been ruled ineligible by the NCAA and will be out at least 2-3 games depending on the success of MTSU’s appeals.
All is not lost for the Blue Raiders, as they have two experienced JuCo quarterbacks ready to go behind Dasher, and a talented backfield, so the suspension isn’t going to turn MTSU into Western Kentucky overnight, but it does close the gap back to the rest of the league. It does, however, diminish their chances for a big non-conference win.
Chasing down the Blue Raiders will be the Troy Trojans, who have shared or won the league outright each of the last three years, but face a big rebuilding project this year. Louisiana too will be a contender, with a lot of players returning from last year’s 6-6 club.
Football on the Fringe Season Previews were ranked, then delivered in random order.
Troy University comes to 2010 after four consecutive seasons winning or sharing the Sun Belt Conference championship. Last year, they rebounded from early losses to Bowling Green and the Gators to win seven in a row and nine of their last ten regular season games, sweeping the Sun Belt and setting up a conference-champions showdown against Central Michigan. CMU got the better of the Trojans by 3 points in double overtime, in a game that was much more exciting than some BCS Championship drudgery that happened the next night.
2010 presents a lot of obstacles for the Trojans- holes at quarterback and a defense decimated by graduations (only three starters return, compared with six on the offense) will mean a young, inexperienced team all the way around. Troy has dealt with this well in the past, but the Sun Belt is going to be a difficult league to win this year, especially with such a young team.
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The last full week of the season came by with a bit of a whimper for the Sun Belt. The Louisianas both needed upsets to get up to 7-5 and into better bowl position, but both came up short and will almost certainly call their seasons over at this point. Middle Tennessee continues to be a big bright spot for the league, earning their 9th win, which gives them the best record in the at-large bowl pool by two games. Things aren’t all done yet, as there are a few games coming up this weekend, including Western Kentucky’s last chance to send their coach on his way with one win on Thursday night.
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