Season Previews- #4: Houston

Football on the Fringe Season Previews were ranked, then delivered in random order.

Today is apparently the day where I recap horrifyingly inconsistent 2009 seasons, because now we come to Houston.  The Cougars started out the year beating Oklahoma and Texas Tech, only to fall UTEP.  They rebounded by beating Mississippi State on their own field, then four conference teams by steadily decreasing margins.  They’d worked back to #12 nationally before losing to UCF, who was at least a bowl team.  They also lost to East Carolina in the conference championship game and seemed uninterested in their bowl against Air Force, falling 47-20.

The storylines for Houston this year all revolve around QB Case Keenum.  He led the Cougars to the #1 total, passing, and scoring offense in the country in 2009 and he will probably be setting NCAA records in this, his senior season.  He gets 3 of his starting WRs back as well as experienced players in the backfield.  But while Keenum gets all the attention, the season hinges on the play of the defense.  They weren’t good enough last year to keep the Cougars ahead of everybody, no matter how sharp the offense was, and Houston can’t count on winning every game in a shootout.  Seven defensive starters return- if they can improve, Houston could be unstoppable.

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Season Previews- #27: Toledo

Football on the Fringe Season Previews were ranked, then delivered in random order.

Toledo might have been the most incomprehensible team we covered in 2009.  They beat Colorado and got to midseason at 3-3, then knocked off Northern Illinois to get to their fourth win.  Yet somehow, they lost to Miami and some of the conference powers down the stretch to only finish 5-7, home for bowl season.

The Rockets are staring down a 2010 season with some important holes to fill on the roster, as they look for a new starting QB and RB.  They do have sophomore Eric Page back at WR, where he was the top freshman receiver in the country in 2009.  If coach Tim Beckman can get the new players up to speed quickly, they may be able to approach last year’s offensive output, which was 13th nationally.

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Season Previews- #40: Ball State

Football on the Fringe Season Previews were ranked, then delivered in random order.

It’s tough to imagine a more disappointing run for a college team than what Ball State endured from the end of 2008 through 2009.  After a 12-0 regular season, the Cardinals lost in the MAC Championship Game and in their bowl, then started 2009 with seven more losses.  The season ended with only two wins, but six of the losses came by a touchdown or less.

2010 is a season with a lot of upside for the Cardinals- Ball State has 10 starters back on offense and seven on the defense, making them one of the most experienced starting lineups in the country.  The question, as with a lot of teams looking to rebound, is can that experience translate into wins?

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Season Previews- #53: Western Kentucky

Football on the Fringe Season Previews were ranked, then delivered in random order.

This blog was openly rooting for Western Kentucky by the end of last year, hoping they’d find their first win as a full fledged 1-A member.  Sadly, they did not, although they came painfully close in each of their last three games, losing by three, six, and four in their final game, giving away a ten point fourth quarter lead.  Despite the odds being stacked against him from the beginning, coach Dave Elson was fired at the end of the season.

The Hilltoppers will have the opportunity to build on the foundation laid in the tough 2009 season, with 9 starters on each side of the ball returning for 2010.  New coach Willie Taggart will have to install a new quarterback, along with getting his new system in place.  And he’ll have to do it without the benefit of a 1-AA team on the schedule to get things warmed up.

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Season Previews- #25: Army

Football on the Fringe Season Previews were ranked, then delivered in random order.

The US Military Academy Black Knights had a respectable 2009 campaign for a team with a new coach and a new scheme.  They lost some games in the early going that they no doubt wished they could have back, but still wound up 5-7 and just missed out on a bowl bid.

2010 looks promising for the Black Knights, as they enter their second year of the Rich Ellerson triple option era.  They return seven offensive starters, including sophomore QB Trent Steelman (perhaps the perfect name for a football player, especially at Army) and senior runner Patrick Mealy.  The defense comes back strong as well, with 8 players back on the #16 total defense from 2009.

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Season Previews- #34: Florida Atlantic

Football on the Fringe Season Previews were ranked, then delivered in random order.

Florida Atlantic had a respectable 5-3 finish in the Sun Belt in 2009, but the Owls were swept in their nonconference schedule to keep them out of bowl contention.  The Owls were only a few close losses away from a more favorable result.

Unfortunately, 2010 looks like it may be a challenging season.  Jeff Van Camp, who started a portion of 2009, is back to lead the offense with only two other returning starters.  The defense has more experience, with nine players back, but the offense will have to come together fast to have a productive year.

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Season Previews- #43: Miami

Football on the Fringe Season Previews were ranked, then delivered in random order.

Miami University is 116 years older than a certain similarly-named school in Florida, and is in fact a larger and arguably more prestigious school.  So we shall primarily refer to them as Miami, not Miami (OH), especially when discussing the MAC or non-BCS football.  If we are discussing Miami (FL), they will be designated as such.

Right then.  That’s about as much positive energy as we can generate for Miami.  They failed to score a point in the first ten quarters of a dismal 2009 season, with their only win coming over a fairly talented Toledo team.  They did come close on other occasions, losing to Temple by only two and Northern Illinois by five.

2010 offers the chance for the RedHawks to bounce back, perhaps in dramatic fashion.  Experienced players are back at every offensive position, including the entire offensive line QB Zac Dysert, who may be poised for a breakout year nationally.  The defense returns nine starters as well, although they will need improvement even with the experience. Read Post

Season Previews- #16: UCF

Football on the Fringe Season Previews were ranked, then delivered in random order.

First, a disclaimer: UCF is my Alma Mater, I live four miles from the campus, and attend as many games as I can each year.  I am undoubtedly biased, although often in the too-negative direction on account of being too close.  So there.

Now then, the University of Central Florida Knights followed a win-then-lose pattern for the first half of the season until they broke the pattern with a last second win over Marshall.  Texas stomped them, but recovered by shocking then #12 Houston, who had lost only once to that point.  The Knights finished second in Conference USA East, and went on to lose to Rutgers in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

2010 is a year of promise for UCF, but, as usual, a question mark hangs over the quarterback position.  Junior QB Rob Calabrese is hoping it’s finally his time in the spotlight, but freshman Jeffrey Godfrey is considered perhaps UCF’s most promising recruit- ever- and the position is still up for grabs.  Otherwise, 8 offensive starters join 7 returnees on the defensive side for a team that should be ready to compete in the division. Read Post

Season Previews- #21: East Carolina

Football on the Fringe Season Previews were ranked, then delivered in random order.

At 21st, ECU is my lowest rated defending conference champion.  The Pirates had an outstanding 2009 season, running through C-USA at 7-1 and taking Arkansas to overtime in the Liberty Bowl.  But 2010 has too many question marks to expect the same performance again.

Head Coach Skip Holtz left for the USF job, and most of their defense is gone too.  The offense loses the starting QB and RB, with a 3 way fight for the new quarterback job underway between two freshmen and a sophomore.   ECU has always outperformed expectations, but this year may be their biggest challenge in a while. Read Post

Season Previews- #27: FIU

Football on the Fringe Season Previews were ranked, then delivered in random order.

The Florida International University Panthers took a step backwards in 2009, following up a 5 win season with a 3-9 record.  The nonconference pounding they took from the likes of Alabama and Florida wasn’t enough to yield results against the Sun Belt, although they did topple rising power Louisiana, which kept the Rajin’ Cajuns from posting a seven win season and getting to a bowl.

This is the paragraph where I talk about how many starters are coming back, because I think that’s helpful in making guesses about the team.  According to the Sun Belt Media Guide, the Panthers have 16 starters back on offense.  Which is fascinating, because most teams are only allowed to start 11.  Maybe the NCAA is allowing an exemption.  I would then check the FIU media guide for clarification, but they don’t have one.  And their website is useless.  But apparently they have only five starters back on defense, which based on the FIU conversion rate, would be at most 3.4 starters on a regular team. Read Post