Here’s our final projection before bowl bids start pouring in. As always, all I have to work with is public information- I have no info on backroom dealings or unofficial alternate arrangements. And as before, I’m making guesses as to the reps from the big leagues, but those are harder since I don’t know as much about the politics involved in each of the big 6.
The At-Large Situation & Notre Dame
We have a few bowls with openings, and a few leagues with extra teams:
Openings:
- EagleBank Bowl (ACC 8th Spot, possibly Army’s spot). CUSA will get one of the openings, the other will be at-large.
- GMAC Bowl (ACC 9th Spot)
- Humanitarian (MWC 5th Spot- MWC has 5 teams, but TCU to the BCS empties a bowl spot)
Overflowing Conferences:
- Southeastern- Right now, 10 eligible teams for 9 spots. 7-5 teams include Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Arkansas and Auburn. No 6-6 teams. However, if both Florida and Alabama do go to BCS games, problem solved. Projecting that they will.
- Pac-10- 7 teams for 6 spots, and unlikely to get a second BCS bowl. However, UCLA is 6-6 and cannot be placed ahead of a 7-5 team, and the Pac-10 can’t pick them for a bowl over one of their own, then putting a 7-5 team on the at-large market (NCAA Division I Bylaw 30.9.2.1). So the problem does solve itself, really.
- Mid-American- 5 teams for 3 spots. 7-5 teams are Bowling Green and Northern Illinois. No 6-6 teams.
- WAC- 3 bowls, could have 5 eligible teams. 7-5 teams are Idaho, possibly Fresno State. If Hawaii loses and Boise State goes to the BCS, problem solved.
- Sun Belt- 1 bowl, 2 nine win teams, 2 more at 6-6. Middle Tennessee is 9-3, Louisianas Monroe & Lafayette both 6-6.
So if you project Hawaii to lose and send Boise & Alabama to the BCS, what you’re left with is 9-3 Middle Tennessee, 7-5 Bowling Green and NIU, and a couple 6-6 Sun Belt teams. I think the first three are off to the bowls listed above, while the Belt pair are done for the year. UCLA is also out of luck.
Then there’s the Notre Dame factor. The Gator Bowl has the right to take Notre Dame based on some sort of contractual deal, and if they do, the Big East could have somebody fall down into the at-large pool. Right now, that team looks like it could be UConn, currently at 6-5. They play South Florida this week, putting the non-BCS world in the horribly uncomfortable position of rooting for the Bulls in order to put UConn at 6-6 and out of the way of the 7-5 non-BCS schools. If UConn wins, and the Gator picks ND, consider UConn or USF projected to the Humanitarian bowl, and give my regards to Northern Illinois.
The Sun Bowl also has an agreement with Notre Dame, but that spot is assigned to a Big 12 team, and if ND is picked there, it will drop a 6-6 Kansas State or Texas A&M team down and out of the bowl picture, not threatening our three teams.
As far as I can tell, most bowls won’t be able to pick the Domers without a contract in place, since they’re 6-6, which is why it almost has to be the Gator Bowl. However, the Gator may prefer to have a good team there instead, and they have second pick from the Big East, which means that most likely two of Pitt, Cincinnati, and West Virginia will be available.
BCS Bowls
Boise now just needs favorites to win their conference title games, and they should be in. There is, of course, a bit of a conundrum as a neutral fan of non-BCS teams- if Nebraska upsets Texas, TCU could get a title shot (although Cincinnati could jump them, playing a respectable Pitt team Thursday night), but if that happens, then Boise’s BCS chances are on the rocks. Read Post