NIU arrives by way of [...]]]> The Humanitarian Bowl pits 10-3 Northern Illinois against 8-4 Fresno State, tonight at 5:30 Eastern, on ESPN as usual. The teams take to the blue turf in Boise, Idaho, an outdoor field where the weather calls for a near 100% chance of snow and/or rain, with a high of 36 degrees.

Northern Illinois

NIU arrives by way of the MAC Championship game, where they lost to Miami in what has to be seen as a massive upset, following an 8-0 MAC season.  Along the way, they picked up a Big 10 win over Minnesota, joining the parade of teams to accomplish that feat this year.

The Huskies, except for the Miami game, have been near impossible to stop and just as hard to score on, still ranking in the top 20 nationally in both stats.  They haven’t been held under 20 since week 1, and beat the second best team in their division 65-30  a few weeks ago.  If they can bounce back from losing the championship game, they’ll be difficult to beat tonight.

Fresno State

The Bulldogs quietly put together another nice season in the shadows of Boise State and Nevada.  They picked up two BCS conference wins, taking down Cincinnati and Illinois, and went 5-3 in the conference.  They only lost consecutive games once, to the leagues top two teams over six days.

The defense may be a bit suspect, but facing Boise State & Nevada will wreck any defensive stats.  Fresno is giving up 29 points per game, matched with the 30 they’re scoring each week, which has left them in as many close games as you would imagine.

Prediction

On paper, this one should belong to Northern Illinois.  But the tough loss to end the year, Fresno’s familiarity with the blue turf (they were there less than a month ago), and their confidence coming in off two good wins could even the score.  NIU is favored by 1.5, but I think I’m going to predict a win for Fresno State, 34-30.

Ohio 34, Buffalo 17- Thursday’s game held no great surprise, as Ohio keeps itself in the chase by handling Buffalo comfortably.  Next Game: Ball State at [...]]]> The MAC is into it’s completely insane November schedule, but since I didn’t write last week, I’ll cover the weeknight games we missed here as well as the games from Saturday.

Ohio 34, Buffalo 17- Thursday’s game held no great surprise, as Ohio keeps itself in the chase by handling Buffalo comfortably.  Next Game: Ball State at Buffalo, November 12; Ohio at Temple, November 16

Central Michigan 26, Western Michigan 22- Central Michigan rallied in the fourth quarter Friday night to win and sweep the Michigan MAC group, a nice highlight in a down year for the Chips.  Next Game: Central Michigan at Navy, Saturday; Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan, Saturday

Ball State 37, Akron 30- Ball State edges Akron to confirm that Akron is probably the worst team in the MAC.  Next Game: Ball State at Buffalo, November 12; Miami at Akron, November 17

Temple 28, Kent State 10- Temple extinguishes any hopes KSU might have had of hanging around for the conference championship and is now full steam ahead toward Ohio next week.  Next Game: Army at Kent State, Saturday; Ohio at Temple, November 16

MAC Standings

MAC Championship Picture

East

Nothing changed at the top- Ohio and Temple control their own destiny, and they’ll face off on November 16.  If Temple wins that one, and Miami keeps winning, then you get a division championship game between them on November 23.  If Ohio wins, only Kent State stands between them and another trip to Detroit.  Kent State, Buffalo, Bowling Green and of course Akron are all eliminated from the division race (Kent State cannot finish better than 5-3, while the winner of Ohio-Temple will have six wins).

West

The West is a two-team show, as everyone else has 3 losses already.  NIU and Toledo play tomorrow night in the MAC game of the week/month/year?  Neither team has a winning team left on the schedule after Tuesday, so the path to Detroit is pretty clear. Western Michigan, Ball State, Central and Eastern Michigan are all eliminated.

Week 10 Power Ranking

1. Northern Illinois
2. Toledo
3. Temple
4. Ohio
5. Miami
6. Kent State
7. Central Michigan
8. Western Michigan
9. Ball State
10. Buffalo
11. Bowling Green
12. Eastern Michigan
13. Akron

Northern Illinois 28, Western Michigan 21- This was a back & forth affair, with WMU leading 21-20 inside six minutes to play, but the Huskies responded with the winning touchdown to [...]]]> Things went mostly according to plan in the MAC this weekend, with only a mild upset at the bottom of the standings disrupting the favorites’ day.

Northern Illinois 28, Western Michigan 21- This was a back & forth affair, with WMU leading 21-20 inside six minutes to play, but the Huskies responded with the winning touchdown to remain unbeaten in the MAC heading into next weekend’s showdown.  Next Game: Toledo at Northern Illinois (Tuesday 11/9), Western Michigan at Central Michigan (Friday 11/5)

Temple 30, Akron 0- This result is of course, remarkably unsurprising.  Akron is bad at football this year.  Next Game: Temple at Kent State (Saturday), Akron at Ball State (Saturday)

Ohio 38, Louisiana 31- Louisiana led much of this game, but a wild 4th quarter saw Ohio grab the lead and pull away for the win.  Still, a surprisingly competitive game for a Rajin’ Cajuns team that appeared to be done a week ago.  Next Game: Buffalo at Ohio (Thursday 11/5)

Miami 21, Buffalo 9- Miami bounces back from the loss to Ohio and is now one game from bowl eligibility.  The Redhawks never trailed in this one, as Buffalo struggled to make it interesting as the game wound down. Next Game: Buffalo at Ohio (Thursday 11/5), Miami at Bowling Green (Wednesday 11/10)

Bowling Green 17, Central Michigan 10- Bowling Green gets a last minute touchdown to secure their first MAC win of the season. Next Game: Western Michigan at Central Michigan (Friday 11/5), Miami at Bowling Green (Wednesday 11/10)

Kent State 33, Ball State 14- Ball State hung around for a while, trailing 14-20 heading into the fourth, but Kent State put the game away with a pair of touchdowns.  Next Game: Temple at Kent State (Saturday), Akron at Ball State (Saturday)

Toledo 42, Eastern Michigan 7- Toledo coasted through the Ball State game last week, but had no trouble dismantling Eastern Michigan.  Next Game: Toledo at Northern Illinois (Tuesday 11/9), Eastern Michigan idle.

MAC Standings

Conference Championship Races

East

Everything is coming down to the final few weeks in the East, with Temple still waiting to face off with Miami and Ohio.  If Temple fades, Ohio does have the tiebreaker over Miami, but if Miami can top Temple but get the Owls to beat Ohio, Miami takes the league.

West

NIU and Toledo have pulled away from the pack and will most likely settle the issue on November 9.  Western Michigan has lost to both teams, and the rest of the division is deplorable.

Week 9 Power Rankings

This has become a league of two halves- the top half has some pretty good football teams in it, while the bottom half could lose to anybody in the country on most weekends.

1. Northern Illinois
2. Toledo
3. Temple
4. Ohio
5. Miami
6. Kent State
7. Western Michigan
8. Buffalo
9. Bowling Green
10. Eastern Michigan
11. Ball State
12. Central Michigan
13. Akron

12:00 PM- Northern Illinois at Western Michigan: The marquee game of the week in the MAC, as Western will [...]]]> The MAC has finally reached the end of its loaded Saturday schedules, which is cool because previewing & recapping 7 or 8 MAC games every week gets a little tedious.  Weeknight play begins next Thursday for the league.

12:00 PM- Northern Illinois at Western Michigan: The marquee game of the week in the MAC, as Western will get their chance to beat a MAC team that isn’t mired in the bottom of the standings.  Their pass offense has been on fire lately, but the NIU defense is the real deal.  NIU then goes on to face Toledo, but they can’t get ahead of themselves tomorrow.  Line: NIU by 8.5.  I do think the Huskies should win, but a touchdown seems more appropriate.  NIU will have to score points to do it though, so I’ll say 35-28.

1:00 PM- Akron at Temple: Temple came alive last week when they shut out Buffalo, and the schedule stays easy when Akron comes to town. Line: Temple by 29.5.  I hate lines this big, even with a 42 point win against a better Buffalo team last week, since there’s always the potential for Temple to go up 24 at halftime and coast to the finish.  That being said, I’ll reluctantly assume that they want to keep the momentum up before the schedule clamps down, and call it Temple 41-6.

2:00 PM- Louisiana at Ohio: Louisiana takes it’s struggling operation out of conference to face a rapidly improving Ohio team.  Ohio came out of the gate slowly, but is back in the division race, while Louisiana watched Western Kentucky terminate their losing streak on the Cajuns field last week.  Line: Ohio by 14.5.  If Western Kentucky can do it, Ohio should too.  38-14 for the Bobcats.

3:30 PM- Miami at Buffalo: Miami hasn’t lost two games in a row all season, and I don’t think they’ll start this week, despite Buffalo looking to turn things around after last week’s loss.  Line: Miami by 2.5.  I’ll take that. RedHawks win this one 28-20.

3:30 PM- Bowling Green at Central Michigan: Bowling Green is already ineligible for postseason play, and CMU will be soon.  My guess is that the Chips break the losing streak, but who knows. Line: Central Michigan by 11.5.  That’s a lot of points for two bad teams.  At most, CMU wins by 10, 24-14.

3:30 PM- Ball State at Kent State: Ball State can sneak up on teams that look past them, but ultimately Kent State should have no trouble handling them.  Line: Kent State by 10. Ten is what I would have guessed.  But if I had to lean one way, it’s always against Ball State, so let’s say Kent State wins this one 38-24.

4:00 PM- Toledo at Eastern Michigan: Toledo should have beaten Ball State by three touchdowns, but only managed a 7 point win.  They should win this one, and maybe this is the week they don’t give their opponents a head start, but one of these days their carelessness is going to cost them. Line: Toledo by 11.  Toledo is more than 11 points better than Eastern Michigan, but that doesn’t mean they’ll cover that.  Either way, I’ll stick with them, against my better judgment.  Toledo 31-10.

My picks went 3-4 last week, 6-10 total, reducing the overall record to 93-86-2.  This week, they are summarized as such:
Western Michigan +8.5 vs. Northern Illinois
Temple -29.5 vs. Akron
Ohio -14.5 vs. Louisiana
Miami -2.5 at Buffalo
Bowling Green +11.5 at Central Michigan
Kent State -10 vs. Ball State
Toledo -11 at Eastern Michigan

Miami 27, Central Michigan 20- This one should have gone to overtime, but the Chips missed a wide-open Miami receiver who sprinted away for a 71 yard game winner with 19 seconds left.  [...]]]> Another eventful weekend in the MAC, with further shifting in the balance of power, big comebacks, and the end of a miserable losing streak.

Miami 27, Central Michigan 20- This one should have gone to overtime, but the Chips missed a wide-open Miami receiver who sprinted away for a 71 yard game winner with 19 seconds left.  Miami is just two games away from bowl eligibility.  Next Week: Ohio at Miami, Central Michigan at Northern Illinois

Temple 28, Bowling Green 27- Bowling Green decided to go for two after scoring what should have been the tying touchdown late in the game, came up short, and saw Temple escape with this one.  Of course, it shouldn’t have been that close, but Temple’s offense remains questionable.  Next Week: Temple at Buffalo, Kent State at Bowling Green

Eastern Michigan 41, Ball State 38- This was a bizarre game.  Ball State couldn’t protect a 21-0 lead, as EMU stormed back to lead 35-28, but couldn’t hold that as Ball State tied the game and sent it to overtime.  Ball State kicked a field goal to start things off, but the Eagles responded with a touchdown to win their first game since 2008.  Next Week: Eastern Michigan at Virginia (why?), Ball State at Toledo

Ohio 38, Akron 10- Akron was noncompetitive once again as Ohio went up big early and coasted to the finish.  Next Week: Ohio at Miami, Western Michigan at Akron

Notre Dame 44, Western Michigan 20- The Broncos lost ground in the first half giving up big plays and short fields to the Irish, and couldn’t keep up as Notre Dame finished them off in the second half.  Next Week: Western Michigan at Akron

Northern Illinois 45, Buffalo 14- Buffalo hung around a while, trailing 21-14 at halftime, but NIU shut them out in the second half and stays unbeaten in MAC play. Next Week: Central Michigan at Northern Illinois, Temple at Buffalo

Toledo 34, Kent State 21- I thought Toledo 2009 was back, the inconsistent club that could have won or contended for the MAC title but kept losing winnable games. Kent State led at halftime, 21-7, but Toledo stomped them in the 2nd half, with 27 unanswered points and their third MAC win.  Next Week: Ball State at Toledo, Kent State at Bowling Green

MAC Standings

Division Title Races

East

No big changes atop the East leaderboard, as Miami, Ohio, Temple, and Buffalo still control their destiny, as the only losses are to West teams and none have played each other.  Kent State could rally with help, but Bowling Green and of course Akron are toast.

West

Toledo and Northern Illinois are barreling toward their November 9 Tuesday showdown which could decide the division.  Western Michigan is still alive, but already needs Toledo to lose twice even if they win out.

Week 7 Power Rankings

No big changes at the top, although the bottom end is a bigger mess than ever- in terms of 1A wins, Ball State’s only win is over CMU, CMU’s only win is over EMU, and EMU’s only win is over Ball State.

1. Northern Illinois
2. Toledo
3. Temple
4. Miami
5. Ohio
6. Western Michigan
7. Buffalo
8. Kent State
9. Bowling Green
10. Central Michigan
11. Eastern Michigan
12. Ball State
13. Akron