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The Sun Belt has their first league game on Saturday, and two of the schools are just now starting their seasons. Nobody gets a week off and everybody plays on Saturday, so here’s what to look for (all times Eastern, lines as of Thursday morning on Vegas.com).
12:00 PM, ESPNU- Florida Atlantic at Michigan State (Detroit): The Owls head north again, a bit farther this time, after last Thursday’s big upset over UAB. Their offensive attack looked good in Birmingham, but a Big 10 defense is going to be a big step up in competition. Line: Michigan State by 28. I think the Spartans will win comfortably, but Western Michigan did put up 14 on them. I see this one going more like 31-10.
3:30 PM, CSS/Regional TV- Arkansas State at Louisiana: Arkansas State is coming off a good offensive performance against Auburn, while both teams allowed over 50 to SEC schools last week. This one may come down to which team’s defense comes to life this week. Line: Louisiana by 2. Games against bigger and better schools are really not a good place to judge a team, but the Red Wolves still looked the better last week. So I think they win this outright, 34-24.
7:00 PM- Rice at North Texas: Read Post
In the end, the Sun Belt won only two games this weekend, but that’s more than the MAC won against FBS competition so it wasn’t all bad. They didn’t get the big upset they wanted against the BCS leagues, but they’ll take one against C-USA from opening night.
Minnesota 24, Middle Tennessee State 17: I had imagined MTSU winning this game, starting off with four or five wins and breaking into the top 25. That may not play out, but MTSU did come back from 14 down to even things out, depth and mistakes just got them in the end (Predicted: MTSU to cover 2, incorrect). Next Week: Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee State
Florida Atlantic 32, UAB 31: Lost in the excitement of the ESPN games was a great effort by FAU, who engineered a fourth quarter comeback and blocked UAB’s final field goal. Of the teams I thought would be bad in rebuilding years, UAB might be living up to the hype the most, but a road win is a big step in the right direction for FAU regardless (Predicted: UAB to cover 14. Wrong again). Next Week: FAU at Michigan State Read Post
It was not a pretty night for non-BCS teams across the country last night, particularly those going up against BCS conference schools. It could have been worse- nobody lost to a FCS school, although some tried. A quick rundown of last night’s action follows.
Lots of good stuff lined up for today- Friday night football preview and weekend previews for four conferences, at the very least. Happy College Colors Day. Flags up!
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There are so many games going on tonight that it’s going to take at least two posts. It’s a beautiful thing. Happy College Football Day, everyone. We’ll go vaguely from east to west on this thing. My plan for this year is to offer a little more opinion on potential outcomes, for better or for worse. All times Eastern, lines courtesy of Vegas.com. Let’s go.
7:00 PM – Southeast Missouri State (FCS) at Ball State: The SE Missouri Redhawks went 2-9 last year. That is the extent of my knowledge of Ball State’s opponents. The Ball State Cardinals might be a decent team this year and should win easily. No line.
7:00 PM – Rhode Island (FCS) at Buffalo: The Rhode Island Rams went 1-10 last year, and that is all I know about Buffalo’s guests. Once again, they should be no match for Buffalo, new coach and all. No line.
7:00 PM – Hampton (FCS) at Central Michigan: As you have probably figured out, there won’t be much time spent researching these 1-AA opponents. The Hampton Pirates were 5-6 last year, and again should not stand in the Chippewas way. As usual for FCS games, no line. If you find one offshore, just stay away, Vegas dodges them for a reason.
7:00 PM – Murray State (FCS) at Kent State: The Murray State Racers went 3-8 last year. I could have just copy/pasted these first four, huh? Kent State better not lose. No line.
Now, on to the good stuff.
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Today is the day. All the talk of recruiting, GPA, realignment, coaching changes, Senate hearings, lawsuits, transfers, arrests and everything else goes out the window. At least until Tuesday because there’s no games Tuesday. Football is finally ready to kick off.
Here on the Fringe, we attempt to preview any given weeknight game as best we can, and we will have our Weeknight Football preview a little later today. But for now, the first of our weekly features including the BCS Buster Watch and my non-BCS Top 25. So here we go.
BCS Buster Watch
Currently on the watch: Everybody. All 54 teams are presently undefeated. So instead, here are 10 teams besides Boise State, TCU, and Utah that could make a run at the dream season, or at least stay undefeated long enough to garner a little attention. These teams are picked because they could (not will) make it to about 4-0 and do it with a worthwhile resume. In no particular order, except for alphabetical by the order their conference pages are sitting on my desk:
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Until about a week ago, the Sun Belt looked like it belonged to Middle Tennessee State. Then it was discovered that star QB Dwight Dasher had taken a $1500 loan from a known gambler, lost it in a poker game, and failed to pay it back. He’s now been ruled ineligible by the NCAA and will be out at least 2-3 games depending on the success of MTSU’s appeals.
All is not lost for the Blue Raiders, as they have two experienced JuCo quarterbacks ready to go behind Dasher, and a talented backfield, so the suspension isn’t going to turn MTSU into Western Kentucky overnight, but it does close the gap back to the rest of the league. It does, however, diminish their chances for a big non-conference win.
Chasing down the Blue Raiders will be the Troy Trojans, who have shared or won the league outright each of the last three years, but face a big rebuilding project this year. Louisiana too will be a contender, with a lot of players returning from last year’s 6-6 club.
Football on the Fringe Season Previews were ranked, then delivered in random order.
The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders enjoyed a record setting year in 2009, becoming the first team to win 10 games in Sun Belt Conference history and grabbing their first bowl in win nearly 50 years. An early season loss to Troy would ultimately cost them the conference championship, but after falling to Mississippi State the next week, the Blue Raiders never lost again, all the way through the New Orleans Bowl where they topped Southern Miss 42-32.
This is the part where I have to write about how they’re all gone and there’s a new coach and this year is going to be a dropoff for a lot of these teams. Not MTSU. Double-threat QB Dwight Dasher is back and MTSU has a deep RB corps. Rick Stockstill was rumored for Memphis and ECU openings, but has stayed put in Murfreesboro. The defense has some holes to fill but returns a lot of players with experience to do it.
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The last full week of the season came by with a bit of a whimper for the Sun Belt. The Louisianas both needed upsets to get up to 7-5 and into better bowl position, but both came up short and will almost certainly call their seasons over at this point. Middle Tennessee continues to be a big bright spot for the league, earning their 9th win, which gives them the best record in the at-large bowl pool by two games. Things aren’t all done yet, as there are a few games coming up this weekend, including Western Kentucky’s last chance to send their coach on his way with one win on Thursday night.
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Here’s our final projection before bowl bids start pouring in. As always, all I have to work with is public information- I have no info on backroom dealings or unofficial alternate arrangements. And as before, I’m making guesses as to the reps from the big leagues, but those are harder since I don’t know as much about the politics involved in each of the big 6.
The At-Large Situation & Notre Dame
We have a few bowls with openings, and a few leagues with extra teams:
Openings:
- EagleBank Bowl (ACC 8th Spot, possibly Army’s spot). CUSA will get one of the openings, the other will be at-large.
- GMAC Bowl (ACC 9th Spot)
- Humanitarian (MWC 5th Spot- MWC has 5 teams, but TCU to the BCS empties a bowl spot)
Overflowing Conferences:
- Southeastern- Right now, 10 eligible teams for 9 spots. 7-5 teams include Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Arkansas and Auburn. No 6-6 teams. However, if both Florida and Alabama do go to BCS games, problem solved. Projecting that they will.
- Pac-10- 7 teams for 6 spots, and unlikely to get a second BCS bowl. However, UCLA is 6-6 and cannot be placed ahead of a 7-5 team, and the Pac-10 can’t pick them for a bowl over one of their own, then putting a 7-5 team on the at-large market (NCAA Division I Bylaw 30.9.2.1). So the problem does solve itself, really.
- Mid-American- 5 teams for 3 spots. 7-5 teams are Bowling Green and Northern Illinois. No 6-6 teams.
- WAC- 3 bowls, could have 5 eligible teams. 7-5 teams are Idaho, possibly Fresno State. If Hawaii loses and Boise State goes to the BCS, problem solved.
- Sun Belt- 1 bowl, 2 nine win teams, 2 more at 6-6. Middle Tennessee is 9-3, Louisianas Monroe & Lafayette both 6-6.
So if you project Hawaii to lose and send Boise & Alabama to the BCS, what you’re left with is 9-3 Middle Tennessee, 7-5 Bowling Green and NIU, and a couple 6-6 Sun Belt teams. I think the first three are off to the bowls listed above, while the Belt pair are done for the year. UCLA is also out of luck.
Then there’s the Notre Dame factor. The Gator Bowl has the right to take Notre Dame based on some sort of contractual deal, and if they do, the Big East could have somebody fall down into the at-large pool. Right now, that team looks like it could be UConn, currently at 6-5. They play South Florida this week, putting the non-BCS world in the horribly uncomfortable position of rooting for the Bulls in order to put UConn at 6-6 and out of the way of the 7-5 non-BCS schools. If UConn wins, and the Gator picks ND, consider UConn or USF projected to the Humanitarian bowl, and give my regards to Northern Illinois.
The Sun Bowl also has an agreement with Notre Dame, but that spot is assigned to a Big 12 team, and if ND is picked there, it will drop a 6-6 Kansas State or Texas A&M team down and out of the bowl picture, not threatening our three teams.
As far as I can tell, most bowls won’t be able to pick the Domers without a contract in place, since they’re 6-6, which is why it almost has to be the Gator Bowl. However, the Gator may prefer to have a good team there instead, and they have second pick from the Big East, which means that most likely two of Pitt, Cincinnati, and West Virginia will be available.
BCS Bowls
Boise now just needs favorites to win their conference title games, and they should be in. There is, of course, a bit of a conundrum as a neutral fan of non-BCS teams- if Nebraska upsets Texas, TCU could get a title shot (although Cincinnati could jump them, playing a respectable Pitt team Thursday night), but if that happens, then Boise’s BCS chances are on the rocks. Read Post
For most of America’s 1-A college football teams, the regular season has come to a close. The conferences with no championship game have a few games here and there over the next few weeks, and four non-BCS teams have appointments with championship games next week. Here are some of the highlights from yesterday’s action:
Troy and TCU [...]
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