NIU arrives by way of [...]]]> The Humanitarian Bowl pits 10-3 Northern Illinois against 8-4 Fresno State, tonight at 5:30 Eastern, on ESPN as usual. The teams take to the blue turf in Boise, Idaho, an outdoor field where the weather calls for a near 100% chance of snow and/or rain, with a high of 36 degrees.

Northern Illinois

NIU arrives by way of the MAC Championship game, where they lost to Miami in what has to be seen as a massive upset, following an 8-0 MAC season.  Along the way, they picked up a Big 10 win over Minnesota, joining the parade of teams to accomplish that feat this year.

The Huskies, except for the Miami game, have been near impossible to stop and just as hard to score on, still ranking in the top 20 nationally in both stats.  They haven’t been held under 20 since week 1, and beat the second best team in their division 65-30  a few weeks ago.  If they can bounce back from losing the championship game, they’ll be difficult to beat tonight.

Fresno State

The Bulldogs quietly put together another nice season in the shadows of Boise State and Nevada.  They picked up two BCS conference wins, taking down Cincinnati and Illinois, and went 5-3 in the conference.  They only lost consecutive games once, to the leagues top two teams over six days.

The defense may be a bit suspect, but facing Boise State & Nevada will wreck any defensive stats.  Fresno is giving up 29 points per game, matched with the 30 they’re scoring each week, which has left them in as many close games as you would imagine.

Prediction

On paper, this one should belong to Northern Illinois.  But the tough loss to end the year, Fresno’s familiarity with the blue turf (they were there less than a month ago), and their confidence coming in off two good wins could even the score.  NIU is favored by 1.5, but I think I’m going to predict a win for Fresno State, 34-30.

9:00 PM Friday, ESPN2- #4 Boise State at Idaho: The Kibbie Dome will be loud and generally unpleasant for the Broncos tonight, but unfortunately for Vandal fans, I suspect [...]]]> Boise State plays the first of three straight Friday games tonight, with three other conference tilts tomorrow including a big one featuring two of the league’s top teams.

9:00 PM Friday, ESPN2- #4 Boise State at Idaho: The Kibbie Dome will be loud and generally unpleasant for the Broncos tonight, but unfortunately for Vandal fans, I suspect that Boise State is going to do unspeakable things to the porous Idaho defense.  Line: Boise State by 35. Hawaii “held” the Broncos to 42 last week, the lowest score BSU has put up against a non-BCS team.  They’ll probably get back on the high side of 50 tonight.  Broncos 55, Vandals 14.

6:00 PM Saturday- Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State: With Nevada ahead, 3-6 Louisiana Tech’s bowl hopes are dim, but they’re more than NMSU has, for whatever that’s worth.  The Bulldogs should have the better team and keep hopes for a 6-6 year alive.  Line: Louisiana Tech by 15.5.  This one is going to be ugly no matter how you slice it, but that’s more points than I’m willing to take on a 3-6 team.  La Tech 28-14.

8:00 PM- Utah State at San Jose State: Like La Tech, Utah State could still technically become bowl eligible.  But they still have Boise on the slate, so let’s be serious. Utah State hasn’t won consecutive games since 2007, they should break the streak against a bad SJSU team. Line: Utah State by 3.5.  I’ll take that.  Aggies win it 24-17.

10:30 PM, ESPN- #21 Nevada at Fresno State: Finally, another decent game…and it’s on at 10:30 at night.  The good news is that on ESPN, they’ll get a decent lead-in and a little promotion throughout the evening.  Nevada has the horses to win this one, but Fresno has been quietly racking up wins against bad teams and should be ready for a challenge.  Line: Nevada by 8.5.  I expected this to be higher so I could say it was too high..but this seems about right.  I’ll say Nevada wins it 37-28.

Pick Summary:
Boise State -35 at Idaho
New Mexico State +15.5 vs. Louisiana Tech
Utah State -3.5 at San Jose State
Nevada -8.5 at Fresno State

Utah State 27, New Mexico State 22- The battle of the Aggies goes to the northern ones, as NMSU isn’t able to hold a 4th quarter lead to find it’s [...]]]> The big time matchup that we were supposed to have turned into another Boise rout, while the rest of the WAC is starting to sort itself out.

Utah State 27, New Mexico State 22- The battle of the Aggies goes to the northern ones, as NMSU isn’t able to hold a 4th quarter lead to find it’s second win in a row.  Next Week: Utah State at San Diego State, Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State

Boise State 42, Hawaii 7- The Bronco defense absolutely shut down the usually high flying Warrior offense, while the offense ran roughshod.  Nevada is the only team left on the schedule that could reasonably challenge Boise at this point. Next Week: Boise State at Idaho (Friday), Hawaii idle.

Fresno State 40, Louisiana Tech 34- Fresno opened up a back & forth game in the fourth quarter with three straight scores, then survived a rally from the other Bulldogs to become bowl eligible.  Next Week: Nevada at Fresno State, Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State

Nevada 63, Idaho 17- Idaho’s defensive struggles haunted them as Nevada racked up 844 yards of offense in the blowout.  Idaho will probably have to win out, including a date with Fresno State, to get bowl eligible after the Boise State game.  Next Week: Nevada at Fresno State, Boise State at Idaho (Friday)

WAC Standings

Conference Championship Picture

Forget, for a moment, that Boise State is straight up murdering everybody.  There.  In that case, the conference is still wide open, as Boise has two of the league’s best still to come.  However, only Boise State actually controls it’s own destiny at this point.  Fresno State and Nevada both need Hawaii to lose one more, even if either of them beats Boise State.  Hawaii needs Boise to lose twice to win the league outright.  If Fresno or Nevada do beat Boise State and win out, then Hawaii wins out, then we have a 3 way tie at 8-1.  The WAC would declare them all co-champions and be done with it.

Week 10 Power Rankings

These are pretty close to the standings, obviously.  Nevada gets back ahead of Hawaii, despite the head to head, based on Hawaii’s implosion on the blue turf.

1. Boise State
2. Nevada
3. Hawaii
4. Fresno State
5. Louisiana Tech
6. Idaho
7. Utah State
8. New Mexico State
9. San Jose State

2:00 PM, The Mtn- San Diego State at Wyoming: The season comes down to this for the Cowboys- find a way to beat SDSU, and they could conceivably win out and find a bowl home at 6-6.  Meanwhile, [...]]]> This is a quieter week in the western leagues, matchup-wise, before the fireworks start next week (TCU-Utah, Hawaii-Boise).

Mountain West

2:00 PM, The Mtn- San Diego State at Wyoming: The season comes down to this for the Cowboys- find a way to beat SDSU, and they could conceivably win out and find a bowl home at 6-6.  Meanwhile, the Aztecs are on the brink of bowl eligibility themselves, but they would rather get that 6th win before facing TCU and Utah.  Line: San Diego State by 10.  Wyoming’s record belies stats that suggest that they’re really a pretty good team, and maybe they finally prove that today.  Not sure they can win, but it’ll be closer than the 10.  SDSU escapes, 31-28.

6:00 PM, The Mtn- New Mexico at Colorado State: The 117th offense in the country heads north to face the 111th, but this isn’t even the worst matchup of the day.  CSU will be looking for some revenge, as they were New Mexico’s only win last year. Line: Colorado State by 16.  Let me just put this out there- if you’re wagering on this game, you have a problem.  CSU by 10, tops, 20-10.

7:30 PM, CBS College- #8 Utah at Air Force: Air Force has trailed off after a great start got them ranked, but they have TCU and Utah in back-to-back weeks, which would be tough for anyone.  Line: Utah by 7.  This should be a good game for a while, but I think Utah will pull away sooner or later.  38-14.

11:00 PM, CBS College- #4 TCU at UNLV: Your insomniac special for the week, but it may not help- TCU should pound the Rebels.  Line: TCU by 35.  I’m going to say that the odd time (10 PM TCU time) and a non-motivating opponent keep this one a little closer, TCU still runs away with it, 35-7.

WAC

4:00 PM- San Jose State at New Mexico State: Ladies and gentlemen, this might be the most unwatchable football game of the year.  The nation’s worst scoring offense (10 points per game) goes to face the second-worst (12 ppg).  You don’t get matchups like this every day.  Line: San Jose State by 3.  Going entirely based on that one statistic, I’m going to take NMSU in the upset, 13-10.

10:30 PM, ESPNU- Utah State at Nevada: Nevada has to wait all day after a 2 week gap since they last played, losing at Hawaii.  Utah State has been woeful since beating BYU, and this is a tough place to try to turn that tide. Line: Nevada by 26.  For my money, Nevada’s defense isn’t good enough to promise an almost four touchdown win.  31-10 for the Pack.

11:30 PM- Idaho at Hawaii: Hawaii is proving to be a tough place to play for WAC teams, especially ones as defensibly questionable as Idaho has been.  An upset is possible, but it might be a long night for the Vandals. Line: Hawaii by 15.  Idaho has surprised me several times this year, but usually by losing.  Hawaii will run away with this one, 42-21.

Pick Summary:
Wyoming +10 vs. San Diego State
New Mexico +16 at Colorado State
Utah -7 at Air Force
UNLV +35 vs. TCU
New Mexico State +3 vs. San Jose State
Utah State +26 at Nevada
Hawaii -15 vs. Idaho

Record: 7-0, 3-0 WAC Highlights: Wins against Virginia Tech and Oregon State, #1 in total defense nationally, leading conference in a great many stat categories. Weak Points: The schedule, also [...]]]> At long last, the final four teams that I haven’t attached an arbitrary grade to.  Here are Boise State, Fresno State, Idaho, and New Mexico State.

Boise State

Record: 7-0, 3-0 WAC
Highlights: Wins against Virginia Tech and Oregon State, #1 in total defense nationally, leading conference in a great many stat categories.
Weak Points: The schedule, also net punting is last in the WAC.
Grade: A. Nothing to find fault with.  Boise State hasn’t lost now in a season and a half and hasn’t shown any signs that they’re going to this year.
Remaining Games: Hawaii, at Idaho, Fresno State, at Nevada, Utah State
Best Case: 5-0 and jumping into the national championship game.
Worst Case: 4-1 and off to San Francisco for the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Prediction:5-0, but probably left out of the national championship yet again, facing an above-average Big 12 team in the Rose Bowl.

Fresno State

Record: 5-2, 3-1 WAC
Highlights: Season opening win over Cincinnati, lead the WAC in sacks
Weak Points: Defensive collapses allowing 55 and 49 points in two losses, mid-pack at best in all the major stat categories.
Grade: B. The loss to Hawaii was a bit surprising at the time, but Hawaii has proven to be a very strong team.  Meanwhile, Cincinnati is having a down year, but any win over a BCS school is a boost to a conference that needs credibility this year.
Remaining Games: At Louisiana Tech, Nevada, at Boise State, Idaho, Illinois
Best Case: 4-1 to finish 3rd in the league and head for a good bowl.
Worst Case: 1-4, which isn’t unthinkable given a quality lineup toward the end of the year.
Prediction: 3-2, which may relegate the Bulldogs to 4th in the league, and may mean a return trip to Boise, this time for the Humanitarian Bowl.

Idaho

Record: 4-3, 1-1 WAC
Highlights: 20+ point wins over UNLV and a decent Western Michigan team, #3 in the WAC for scoring defense, #2 passing offense behind only Hawaii.
Weak Points: Surprising losses to Colorado State and Louisiana Tech mean this team perhaps should be 6-1, almost no running game to be found, 118th in the country allowing sacks.
Grade: C+. If you had told me Idaho would be 4-3, I probably would have guessed they beat CSU and lost to WMU, but otherwise Idaho is playing like an above average, but far from stellar, football team.
Remaining Games: at Hawaii, Nevada, Boise State, at Utah State, at Fresno State, San Jose State
Best Case: 3-3. This is a brutal schedule for Idaho, and they have to find 3 wins to get to a bowl this year.
Worst Case: 1-5. Idaho may not be favored in any but the last game, although they shouldn’t finish this poorly.
Prediction:3-3.  I think the Vandals could pull an upset against one of Hawaii, Nevada, or Fresno State and make it into a bowl again.

New Mexico State

Record: 1-6, 0-3 WAC
Highlights: Beat rival New Mexico. Lead the league, 5th in the country, in kickoff returns.
Weak Points: Outscored 254-71 in six losses, 119th in scoring offense, ranked below 100 in most categories.
Grade: F. Despite beating New Mexico, the Aggies are one of the worst teams in America, no matter how you slice it.
Remaining Games: San Jose State, at Utah State, Louisiana Tech, at Nevada, Hawaii
Best Case: 2-3.  Their next two games are against other teams that range from very bad to capable-of-being-very-bad.
Worst Case: 0-5, which is almost certain if they lose to SJSU.
Prediction: 1-4.  NMSU is 119th in scoring offense. #120? San Jose State.

Louisiana Tech 48, Idaho 35- The Bulldogs surge continues, knocking off two would-be upstarts in back to back weeks.  La Tech trailed briefly in the second quarter, but dominated [...]]]> A late night upset rattles the standings in the WAC, while Boise continues its dominance, currently holding a combined score of 107-0 in two WAC games so far.

Louisiana Tech 48, Idaho 35- The Bulldogs surge continues, knocking off two would-be upstarts in back to back weeks.  La Tech trailed briefly in the second quarter, but dominated the second half to notch their second league win. Next Week: New Mexico State at Idaho, Louisiana Tech at Boise State (Tuesday 10/26)

Boise State 48, San Jose State 0- Boise State put up 41 in the first half, the other 7 early in the third quarter, and shut it down from there.  Next Week: Fresno State at San Jose State, Louisiana Tech at Boise State (Tuesday 10/26)

Fresno State 33, New Mexico State 10- The Aggies’ only touchdown came in the fourth, long after the game was out of reached.  New Mexico State just seems overmatched in the WAC so far.  Next Week: Fresno State at San Jose State, New Mexico State at Idaho

Hawaii 27, Nevada 21- Hawaii’s defense came to life this week, shutting out the Wolf Pack and giving the offense time to build a lead good enough to hold on when Nevada got things going.  Hawaii hasn’t lost since week 3.  Next Week: Nevada at Utah State, Hawaii is idle.

The picks were 2-2, as I thought Idaho could get the job done in Ruston and that Nevada would play better on the island.  Oh well.

WAC Standings

WAC Championship Race

The WAC race is wide-open, if we pretend we think anybody can beat Boise State.  I will add Hawaii to the list of teams that could give the Broncos a hard time, along with Nevada.  If they were to win out, Nevada, Fresno State and Louisiana Tech both need 2 losses from Hawaii.  Idaho needs just one more loss from La Tech to get back ahead if they start winning. The three at the bottom need more help.

Week 7 Power Rankings

Hawaii has climbed to the number two spot after an impressive run the last four weeks.  Sorting through those one loss teams isn’t so easy.

1. Boise State
2. Hawaii
3. Nevada
4. Fresno State
5. Louisiana Tech
6. Idaho
7. Utah State
8. New Mexico State
9. San Jose State

4:00 PM- Idaho at Louisiana Tech: La Tech showed it’s first signs of life last week when they knocked off Utah State, while Idaho comes in off a bye week, beating Western Michigan handily two weeks ago.  Line: Idaho by 1.  The Vandals [...]]]> The WAC is into full-blown league play, which means only four games this weekend.

4:00 PM- Idaho at Louisiana Tech: La Tech showed it’s first signs of life last week when they knocked off Utah State, while Idaho comes in off a bye week, beating Western Michigan handily two weeks ago.  Line: Idaho by 1.  The Vandals played well on their last long road trip, and I look for a repeat performance today.  Idaho wins this one 31-20.

8:00 PM- #3 Boise State at San Jose State: Another round of “how many will Boise score?”  They’ve comfortably sailed past whatever line Vegas puts up in the last few weeks.  Line: Boise by 40.  They’re taking on one of the worst teams in the WAC, although SJSU did slow down Nevada a little last week.  Either way, Boise should win by a ton.  55-10.

10:30 PM, ESPNU- New Mexico State at Fresno State: Your ESPNU dud of the week.  And ESPNU puts on a lot of duds.  New Mexico State will be coming in off a win over rival New Mexico, but I don’t think they’re on their way to a win this time.  Line: Fresno State by 30.  I could see this being a little closer than that.  Fresno State wins 35-14.

11:30 PM- #19 Nevada at Hawaii: This is a fascinating matchup- Nevada’s near unstoppable run game versus Hawaii’s near unstoppable passing game.  I think Nevada has the better defense, which should be the advantage today.  Line: Nevada by 6.5.  I think it will be close to this number, but I’ll take Nevada to win it by a touchdown, 42-35.

Pick Summary:
Idaho -1 at Louisiana Tech
Boise State -40 at San Jose State
NM State +30 at Fresno State
Nevada -6.5 at Hawaii