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Conference Previews: Sun Belt

lowercase — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 14:00:34 +0000

Until about a week ago, the Sun Belt looked like it belonged to Middle Tennessee State. Then it was discovered that star QB Dwight Dasher had taken a $1500 loan from a known gambler, lost it in a poker game, and failed to pay it back. He’s now been ruled ineligible by the NCAA and will be out at least 2-3 games depending on the success of MTSU’s appeals.

All is not lost for the Blue Raiders, as they have two experienced JuCo quarterbacks ready to go behind Dasher, and a talented backfield, so the suspension isn’t going to turn MTSU into Western Kentucky overnight, but it does close the gap back to the rest of the league. It does, however, diminish their chances for a big non-conference win.

Chasing down the Blue Raiders will be the Troy Trojans, who have shared or won the league outright each of the last three years, but face a big rebuilding project this year. Louisiana too will be a contender, with a lot of players returning from last year’s 6-6 club.

Key Sun Belt Games

Non-Conference

Minnesota at Middle Tennessee- September 2- The loss of Dasher is a big setback for MTSU’s chances of the upset, but it also means that Minnesota has less material to prepare with since they’ll face quarterbacks who haven’t played for the Blue Raiders yet. If MTSU can dig up a win, then they’ll have to feel like they’re still on track for a special season.

Troy at UAB- September 18- Troy starts off with a MAC opponent then Oklahoma State, but this is the next chapter in a growing rivalry with the only other non-BCS school in the state. Troy won it last year, but now we have two programs that are both replacing a lot of components. This week 3 challenge will be important to both schools before conference play ramps up

Middle Tennessee at Georgia Tech- October 16- Almost certainly the best team that MTSU will face, and if they don’t have Dwight Dasher to keep Tech off balance by then, it might not go well. Even if they do, Tech’s triple option is a tough scheme to break up, especially for smaller schools.

Louisiana at Ohio- October 30- Louisiana looks primed for a breakout year in the Sun Belt, but to get to bowl eligibility they may need to grab a win out of conference. Ohio is a solid program and this should be a quality non-conference game between good non-BCS teams.

Conference Play

The Sun Belt conference schedule is the reverse of most leagues, presumably by coincidence. The round-robin among the three favorites will be over by week 7- after that, it becomes a matter of who gets tripped up by the rest of the league.

Middle Tennessee at Louisiana- September 25- MTSU opens conference play here in week four, and by this point they should know the final status of Dasher. If they don’t have him, this is where they’ll find out if they’re still going to be the team to beat in the Belt.

Troy at Middle Tennessee- October 5- 2009′s 1 & 2 face off on a Tuesday night this year for what should be command of the conference. It is early in the season, so there’s a long way to go no matter who wins.

Louisiana at Troy- October 16- By this point in the year, the two teams will know what they have and get one last chance to show it off against the best in the league (depending on who else emerges, of course). If MTSU does fall away, this might be the clash for the league championship.

North Texas at Western Kentucky- October 30- Western Kentucky still hasn’t claimed a win as a FBS school, and the nonconference schedule doesn’t help much- four BCS league teams. I have said that North Texas should be improved this year, but still may be the lowest rated team that WKU is going to get at home. Both squads may be desperately looking for a win in what may be rough seasons for both.

Predictions

I will once again attempt to predict the final conference records across the league. I did try to guess at each league game to get here, so the numbers better add up. You probably won’t like them, but don’t worry- they’re almost certainly wrong. We’ll check back on them at the end of the year. Maybe.

I am banking somewhat on MTSU getting Dasher back after a few weeks of suspension time. If he’s not back, there’s no telling what they’ll put on the field over the long haul.

Middle Tennessee State 8-0
Louisiana 7-1
Troy 6-2
Florida International 4-4
Arkansas State 4-4
ULM 3-5
FAU 3-5
North Texas 1-7
Western Kentucky 0-8

As usual, I offer my 100% guarantee that these are wrong somehow or another. I will be surprised if WKU really goes 0-12 again, but they’ll have to pull an upset to get that win. And picking Troy to drop to third in a league they’ve owned for so long is probably dumb, but it has to happen some day. Either way, I think this is shaping up to be a very entertaining Sun Belt season.

Week 14 Wrapup: Sun Belt

lowercase — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 14:30:03 +0000

The last full week of the season came by with a bit of a whimper for the Sun Belt. The Louisianas both needed upsets to get up to 7-5 and into better bowl position, but both came up short and will almost certainly call their seasons over at this point. Middle Tennessee continues to be a big bright spot for the league, earning their 9th win, which gives them the best record in the at-large bowl pool by two games. Things aren’t all done yet, as there are a few games coming up this weekend, including Western Kentucky’s last chance to send their coach on his way with one win on Thursday night.

Sun Belt Standings

	Conf	Overall
Troy	8-0	9-3
Middle Tennessee State	7-1	9-3
Louisiana Monroe	5-3	6-6
Florida Atlantic	4-3	4-7
Louisiana Lafayette	4-4	6-6
Florida International	3-4	3-8
Arkansas State	2-5	3-8
North Texas	1-7	2-10
Western Kentucky	0-7	0-11

Week 13 Results

Arkansas State 30, North Texas 26- North Texas staged a valiant comeback at the end, but the Red Wolves held them off and went on to grab their third win of the year. North Texas concludes a disappointing season after the promising win over Ball State in the first weekend.

Florida Atlantic 29, Western Kentucky 23- WKU inches closer to finding a win, but it wasn’t there this week either. With a win over Florida International, FAU will actually share third place in the league with Louisiana Monroe, although the Warhawks did take their game earlier this year. FAU’s terrible start doomed them to a poor record.

Middle Tennessee State 38, Louisiana Monroe 19- This game was a de facto fight for 2nd in the league and very possibly a berth in the GMAC or even New Orleans bowl, from what I’ve read. If Monroe had gotten to 7 wins, they might have been a better pick for a game in New Orleans or Mobile, but the Blue Raiders capped off their best season since joining 1-A, and appear poised to move into an at-large bowl spot comfortably.

Troy 48, Louisiana Lafayette 31- The Sun Belt doesn’t really recognize tiebreakers in their historical records of league champions, meaning that a Troy loss here would have meant that MTSU would have been league co-champion. Troy appeared to want no part in that, racing to a 24 point lead in the second quarter. Lafayette rallied in an attempt to salvage postseason hopes, even clawing back to a 25-24 lead, but Troy dominated the fourth quarter to conclude the perfect league season.

Week 13 Power Rankings

Unchanged from last week, actually, as the teams ahead beat the teams behind evenly.

Troy
Middle Tennessee State
Louisiana Lafayette
Louisiana Monroe
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Arkansas State
North Texas
Western Kentucky

Two belt games this weekend that we’ll try to preview, or at least mention, then a season wrapup next week.

Mid-Season Report Cards: Western Kentucky, Troy, and FIU

lowercase — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:01:43 +0000

Let’s see how the new Report Card format is going to work today with a batch of Sun Belt teams. Not as in-depth, but most of the same information is there, just faster…

Western Kentucky
Wins: F	WKU has launched their first full season in D1-A by losing all their games. Not what the Hilltoppers had hoped for.
	Rushing	Rank	Passing	Rank	Total	Rank	Scoring	Rank
Offense: F	161	45	135	115	296	111	15.17	115
Defense: F	272	120	213	60	486	117	38.5	119
	Punting	Rank	Punt Ret	Rank	Kick Ret	Rank
Special Teams: C+	37	39	8	76	20.8	77
	Gained	Lost	Margin
Turnovers: D-	10	15	-5
Final Grade: F.	I don’t mean to be too negative on a team just breaking through, but compared to most D-1A programs, WKU just isn’t very good. Plenty of potential there, but this isn’t their year.

Remaining Games:	at Middle Tennessee
	at North Texas
	Troy
	at Louisiana Monroe
	at Florida Atlantic
	Arkansas State

Best Case Scenario:	1-5. North Texas and FAU aren’t great, so the Hilltoppers could steal one in there somewhere

Worst Case Scenario:	0-6. This is certainly possible.

Prediction:	0-6. I don’t think WKU is doomed to be a bottom feeder forever, just this year.

Troy
Wins: B	Troy started poorly, with a loss to Bowling Green and a blowout at Florida’s hands, but hasn’t lost since and is now tied for the lead in the Belt.
	Rushing	Rank	Passing	Rank	Total	Rank	Scoring	Rank
Offense: A-	137	69	282	15	420	29	25	80
Defense: D	122	45	261	108	383	85	28	88
	Punting	Rank	Punt Ret	Rank	Kick Ret	Rank
Special Teams: D	38.76	14	3.39	111	16.72	117
	Gained	Lost	Margin
Turnovers: D	10	14	-4
Final Grade: B.	A 4-2 start is probably as good as most would have expected, although I probably would have swapped the Bowling Green loss and the UAB win if I were to guess. Need to get more points out of a good offense. Good start overall.

Remaining Games:	North Texas
	Louisiana Monroe
	at Western Kentucky
	at Arkansas
	Florida Atlantic
	Louisiana Lafayette

Best Case Scenario:	5-1. Troy is good where they are, but they’re not going to compete with Arkansas. At least, probably not.

Worst Case Scenario:	3-3. Troy still has a couple of the better teams in the league left, and they aren’t invincible.

Prediction:	4-2. Not sure if Troy can get through the league without any losses, but more than one would surprise me.

Florida International
Wins: F	When the only win so far is against 0-6 Western Kentucky, you’re not having a good year.
	Rushing	Rank	Passing	Rank	Total	Rank	Scoring	Rank
Offense: C-	85	111	252	34	337	86	27.5	60
Defense: F	233	116	267	112	500	120	35.67	114
	Punting	Rank	Punt Ret	Rank	Kick Ret	Rank
Special Teams: C	37.38	33	16.15	12	18.9	112
	Gained	Lost	Margin
Turnovers: C-	9	10	-1
Final Grade: F	No running game and the worst defense in America. It’s bad down there.

Remaining Games:	at Arkansas State
	Louisiana Lafayette
	at Middle Tennessee St
	North Texas
	at Florida
	Florida Atlantic

Best Case Scenario:	1-5. I just don’t see any way they get more than one win against some of the Sun Belt’s best. And that Florida game? Only way UF doesn’t hang 70 is if they’re resting stars for the FSU game.

Worst Case Scenario:	0-6. Like WKU before them, also quite possible. Probably depends on that North Texas game.

Prediction:	1-5. Maybe N. Texas, maybe someone else, but eventually they’ll come across a team that can’t move the ball and can’t stop FIU’s passing game, so they’ll find one more win.

Fringe Hangover, Sunday, September 27

lowercase — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 12:11:37 +0000

Another eventful Saturday across the college football landscape. The top 25 got blown apart, but we had fewer upsets overall on the non-BCS side. A handful of quick hits on the day that was, with more thoughtful recaps to come this week:

The Houston finish was spectacular. We’re down to them, TCU, and Boise State to find their way to the BCS. Houston could come within striking range of Boise after that win.
Colorado State and Southern Miss lost, but neither was a big surprise.
The MWC is a mess again below the top 3, as Wyoming beat UNLV.
Marshall and ECU get big wins to lead CUSA East.
Idaho survived a Northern Illinois comeback to improve to 3-1.
Toledo beat FIU in a high scoring MAC vs. Sun Belt battle
Troy and La-Monroe won their Sun Belt openers to take the early lead in that conference.
Back on the Cougars- Houston’s remaining opponents include at Mississippi State, who gave LSU all it could handle yesterday, Southern Miss, and a road game at Tulsa. They’re not out of the woods yet.

More to come on these subjects and more this week on the fringe.

Week 4 Preview: Sun Belt

lowercase — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:00:29 +0000

Things get interesting in the Belt this week, with a matchup of conference favorites and some quality out of conference opponents lined up as well. There are teams that will take big steps forward towards the New Orleans Bowl bef0re Saturday is out.

Western Kentucky at Navy, 3:30 PM- WKU will need to be a different team than we’ve seen so far to beat Navy. Navy can be stopped, Pitt showed the way last week, but I doubt if WKU has what it will take to pull it off.

Louisiana Monroe at Florida Atlantic, 4 PM- Neither of these teams has played a game against a non-BCS school yet. In fact, neither team even put up much of a fight in their losses to the big boys. So while their wallets have been expanding, it’s tough to know what to expect out of this one.

Troy at Arkansas State, 4:30 PM- Troy stumbled out of the gate, but looked good against UAB, which puts them right back in the SBC title conversation. Meanwhile Arkansas State put up the 2nd highest point total anywhere in week 1, then got run out by Nebraska in week 2. After a bye week, they should be well prepared for this one.

Louisiana-Lafayette at Nebraska, 7 PM- I continue to think Nebraska has one of the lamest non-conference schedules I’ve ever seen. Fattening up on Sun Belt teams might help with bowl eligibility, but it sure didn’t get them ready to play against Virginia Tech last week.

Middle Tennessee State at North Texas, 7 PM- I was really high on North Texas after they beat Ball State, and I still think they should be a mid-pack or even better team in the Belt this year (that being said, we haven’t seen enough SBC teams face mid-major competition to really have a picture of future standings). Meanwhile MTSU is on a huge roll, beating Memphis and Maryland back to back. If the Mean Green can hang with Middle Tennessee, then we’ll know they’re legit, but I think MTSU will be tough to stop in this one.

Toledo at Florida International, 7 PM- I mentioned this in the MAC preview this morning, but FIU was hoping to make some noise this season. The week 1 bye and 2 BCS losses later, and we have no idea if they will. Toledo’s a pretty good MAC team, so a win here would give FIU some credibility, but I would count it as a substantial upset.

Week 3 Wrapup: The Sun Belt

lowercase — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 15:30:54 +0000

172-20. This is the combined score of the three Noon SEC vs. Sun Belt games that the SEC Network has shown the last three weeks. I have watched almost all of each game, rooting for the Belt teams, feeling the pain of their fans as the SEC defenses shut them down mercilessly. The good news is that the SEC Net is now turning to in-conference games, so we won’t be subjected to that kind of torture any more. Other good news is that the schools in question made a boatload of cash, so they can continue building, and the Sun Belt will sneak up on these teams more often.

What we learned this week

Middle Tennessee State is either pretty good or somebody there really does not like turtles. They knocked off Maryland for the second straight year, this time on the road. Heck of a game, too. Games like this don’t get the attention they deserve, but the reality is that good teams from the Belt, the MAC, and CUSA can compete with low to mid level teams in any conference.

Troy is on the rebound. Their win over UAB is a nice bounce back from losing to Bowling Green and then Florida in one of the three games I mentioned before. They’ve shown that they can play and beat mid-level non-BCS teams, which is exactly what they will be doing for the rest of the year (well, beating them is their job, but Florida isn’t on the conference schedule).

I might have been wrong about Western Kentucky. I figured them for a few wins this year, but after a 28-7 loss to 1-AA Central Arkansas, maybe not so much. Now, this same Central Ark team did push Hawaii to the brink in week 1, but WKU should be doing better than this.

FIU & FAU have given me almost nothing to work with. Losses to Nebraska, Alabama, South Carolina, and Rutgers were all to be expected. This week FAU gets Monroe while FIU hosts the enigmatic Toledo, so we’ll get a better picture of where these guys fit in the big picture.

Sun Belt Power Ratings

Middle Tennessee State
Arkansas State
Troy
Louisiana Lafayette
Louisiana Monroe
North Texas
Florida International
Florida Atlantic
Western Kentucky