Southern Miss 31, UCF 21- USM came in and stunned UCF on their home field, rallying from an early 14-0 deficit to run [...]]]> In a week that offered the chance to finalize a few things in the league, the exact opposite happened, and now nothing will be set in stone until the final whistle on November 27.

Southern Miss 31, UCF 21- USM came in and stunned UCF on their home field, rallying from an early 14-0 deficit to run off 31 consecutive points with a smothering defense and a seemingly unstoppable offensive attack.  Having now seen both in person, I’m baffled as to how they lost to UAB.  Next Week: UCF at Tulane, Houston at Southern Miss

Marshall 28, Memphis 13- Another game that swung wildly, as Memphis lead 10-0 then accomplished nothing else until a 4th quarter field goal.  Marshall is now on a 3 game win streak, but a tough road trip might derail their bowl aspirations once and for all. Next Week: Marshall at SMU, Memphis at UAB.

Tulane 54, Rice 49- Another C-USA West shootout that ends with Tulane clinging to hopes of getting back to 6-6, dropping Rice to the bottom of the division.  Next Week: UCF at Tulane, East Carolina at Rice

Arkansas 58, UTEP 21- UTEP hung around for a while in the first half, but once Arkansas got things going, it was over for the Miners.  Next Week: UTEP at Tulsa

Tulsa 28, Houston 25- Tulsa keeps rolling, but in close fashion this time.  A late review reversed what could have been a devastating fumble for Tulsa, and the Golden Hurricane keep their conference hopes alive.  Next Week: UTEP at Tulsa, Houston at Southern Miss

Conference USA Standings

Conference Championship Scenarios

East

UCF (Tulane, Memphis) remains in charge of the east despite the loss, but the pressure is on now.

East Carolina (Rice, SMU) will win the division if they win out and UCF loses another game

Southern Miss’ (Houston, Tulsa) needs a lot of help. They need ECU to drop both remaining games and for UCF to lose at least once.

Three Way Tie at 6-2: If that happened, the first tiebreaker they come to is the record vs. divisional teams.  UCF stands at 3-1 right now, ECU is done at 4-1, while USM sits at 3-2. If UCF loses to Tulane and beats Memphis, they’re ok at 4-1. Southern Miss would be dropped off, and UCF would win the head-to-head tiebreaker with ECU.  But, if UCF should beat Tulane and lose to Memphis, they’ll finish 3-2 in the division and ECU wins that tiebreaker.  Southern Miss can’t win a 3 way tie.

West

SMU (Marshall, ECU) is in charge thanks to a tiebreaker against Tulsa- win out and the division is theirs.

Tulsa (UTEP, Southern Miss) needs to win out and get a SMU loss to advance.

Houston needs a lot of help too, particularly for Tulsa to lose twice and SMU at least once, as they do have the tiebreaker over SMU.

Three Way Tie at 5-3: Like the East, we’d have a 1-1 round robin result there, so it’s down to divisional results.  Tulsa is at 3-1, SMU 3-2, and Houston 3-2.  If Tulsa beats UTEP, they would win the division out of a 3 way tie.  If Tulsa lost to UTEP but beat USM to set up the tie, then they compare records against divisional opponents in order of finish.  First up would almost certainly be UTEP, who already beat SMU and now Tulsa, which would give the division over to Houston.

Championship Game Home Field

If UCF or ECU win out, the division winner will host the conference championship.  If both teams drop to 6-2, then the first tiebreaker would be head-to-head play.  UCF would host the game vs. Houston, ECU would host a game against Tulsa, the winner of ECU-SMU would host that rematch, etc.  If the teams have not played each other, home field goes to the team with a higher BCS ranking.  At the moment, I think Tulsa could be the favorite (assuming ECU & UCF lose along the way), then the East winner, then the rest of the west, but that’s just conjecture.

Week 11 Power Rankings

As usual, we have a group of teams at the top who are not terribly separate from each other, then a big drop to the mid-pack bunch, then a freefall to Memphis.

1. Tulsa
2. Southern Mississippi
3. UCF
4. ECU
5. Houston
6. SMU
7. UTEP
8. Marshall
9. UAB
10. Tulane
11. Rice
12. Memphis

8:00 PM Thursday- East Carolina at UAB: [...]]]> Conference USA is hurtling toward its championship game, and the East division could be wrapped up by dinnertime Saturday (but probably not).  The West is still wide open, as the teams over there have plenty of good games coming up, but one this week could alter the course there too.

8:00 PM Thursday- East Carolina at UAB: UAB has been bizarre lately, pounding UTEP, nearly beating Mississippi State,  and edging Southern Miss in overtime, then getting beaten soundly by Marshall last week.  Meanwhile, ECU is reeling off a loss to UCF and an embarrassing afternoon against Navy.  The Pirates should have the talent advantage here, but are their heads still in the game?  Line: UAB by 2.  This is a tough one to read, but having seen both teams play in person, I have to think ECU should win this one.  I just don’t think that UAB can keep up if and when it turns into a shootout.  Pirates take this one 38-27.

12:00 PM Saturday, CBS College- Southern Miss at #23 UCF: USM stands as UCF’s last, and possibly biggest, obstacle to the division championship.  UCF has been vulnerable to spread attacks the last few weeks, but hasn’t faced a defense as good as what the Golden Eagles have since entering conference play.  An ECU loss tonight paired with a UCF win would clinch the division for the Knights.  Line: UCF by 10.  My first thought is that 10 seems high, but UCF happens to be 5-0 against the spread in conference play, so I’ll take this one by another big margin, 42-24.

3:00 PM- Memphis at Marshall: Marshall looks to continue a 2 game winning streak that has them alive in the bowl picture, with SMU and Tulane to close out the season.  Memphis is just excited that basketball is starting. Line: Marshall by 17.  That’s a big number, but Memphis is really bad at football, so I’ll go with it.  34-10 for the Herd.

3:30 PM- Rice at Tulane: Tulane can win this one to stay in the bowl picture for one more week until UCF comes in, while Rice seems to have peaked back when they beat Houston and are now just gliding to the finish.  Line: Tulane by 4.  Tulane has shown flashes of brilliance this year, and while they were fleeting, they should still be better than Rice.  24-17 Green Wave.

7:00 PM, ESPNU: UTEP at #14 Arkansas: UTEP crossed into bowl eligibility last week, which is good because this one could be rough.  They’re just pretty well outgunned in this one.  Line: Arkansas by 28.5.  That extra half point is the kicker, because I think (just like LSU playing ULM) that Arkansas will coast before they get a lead as big as 28.  Razorbacks 35-14.

8:00 PM, CBS College- Tulsa at Houston: CBSC’s second league game of the day will give one team an edge in the west.  Tulsa is flying high after beating Notre Dame and Rice as part of a 3 game win streak, while Houston is picking themselves up after a competitive loss to UCF last week.  If Tulsa wins, they’ll still need a SMU loss to get to the title game, while Houston still has Southern Miss ahead.  Line: Houston by 2.  I haven’t seen much of Tulsa lately, but Houston looked a little mistake prone last week in the UCF game.  I think Tulsa keeps the momentum up and steals this one, 33-30, but I could definitely be wrong there.

Pick Summary:
ECU + 2 at UAB (Thursday)
UCF +10 vs. Southern Miss
Marshall -17 vs. Memphis
Tulane -4 vs. Rice
UTEP +28.5 at Arkansas
Tulsa +2 at Houston

UCF 40, Houston 33- UCF survived a shootout with the Cougars, [...]]]> C-USA had a busy week, with 7 games going on and only 1 of the league’s ‘Big 4′ getting through unscathed.  UCF, meanwhile, has earned its first Top 25 rankings in school history, sitting 23rd in the coaches and 25th in the AP and Harris polls.

UCF 40, Houston 33- UCF survived a shootout with the Cougars, in the second straight game where UCF has given up over 30 but scored over 40.  Luckily for Houston, they got some help on Saturday to keep control of the West, which means this game is very likely a conference championship preview.  Next Week: Tulsa at Houston, Southern Miss at UCF

Tulsa 64, Rice 27- Tulsa is storming through the second half of their schedule, setting up a very big game with Tulsa this weekend, as Rice fades into the background.  Next Week: Tulsa at Houston, Rice at Tulane

Navy 76, East Carolina 35- Three straight turnovers in their own territory turned into points for Navy, and turned a shootout into a disaster for the Pirates.  Next Week: East Carolina at UAB, Thursday night

Southern Miss 46, Tulane 30- Two touchdowns and a safety broke a 30-30 tie in the 4th quarter for Southern Miss as they keep their conference hopes alive, especially with ECU staggering and a big game with UCF this week.  Next Week: Rice at Tulane, Southern Miss at UCF

Marshall 31, UAB 17- A mildly surprising result from two teams that have been up and down all year, but UAB had shown signs of life lately.  Next Week: East Carolina at UAB, Thursday, Memphis at Marshall

Tennessee 50, Memphis 14- There’s nothing worse than getting a game against a BCS rival when you’re in a down year.  Next Week: Memphis at Marshall

UTEP 28, SMU 14- UTEP gets bowl eligible by knocking SMU off their perch atop the West, which lasted less than 24 hours after Houston handed it to them.  UTEP never trailed in this one.  Next Week: UTEP at Arkansas, SMU idle.

Conference USA Standings

Conference Championship Picture

East

UCF is in control, needing to win two of the last three games.  If ECU loses Thursday and UCF wins Saturday, UCF will clinch the East.

East Carolina must go unbeaten and needs two UCF losses to capture the division.  Southern Miss also must win out, including beating UCF Saturday, and have UCF lose one other game to win or create a three-way tie, depending on ECU’s results.

UCF can clinch home field advantage for the championship game by winning the next two games.

West

Houston currently controls its own destiny ahead of this week’s game with Tulsa.

SMU needs a Houston loss to take control of its own destiny.

Tulsa needs to beat Houston, win out, and have SMU find another loss to win the division.

Week 10 Power Rankings

Things are very fluid, both in the top half and the bottom half, with so many contenders taking a loss this weekend.

1. UCF
2. Tulsa
3. Houston
4. SMU
5. East Carolina
6. Southern Miss
7. UTEP
8. Marshall
9. UAB
10. Tulane
11. Rice
12. Memphis

UAB 50, Southern Miss 49- Since getting shelled at UCF a few weeks ago, [...]]]> The weekend was a good one for Conference USA.  Despite a lack of national TV coverage, the UCF-ECU game lived up to the hype, Tulsa knocked off a big opponent on a national stage, and two other games came down to the wire.

UAB 50, Southern Miss 49- Since getting shelled at UCF a few weeks ago, UAB is 2-1 and nearly beat a ranked Mississippi State team.  Southern Miss had to rally from 14 down in the 4th quarter to send the game to overtime, where the teams traded touchdowns until UAB opted for a 2 point conversion which won the game for them in OT2.  Next Week: Southern Miss at Tulane, Marshall at UAB

Tulsa 28, Notre Dame 27- Tulsa took the lead with 3 minutes to go in this one after a back and forth battle all afternoon, then intercepted Notre Dame’s backup quarterback on the final drive to seal the victory.  Notre Dame had never lost to a C-USA team, and hasn’t lost to a current member since SMU in 1984, back in the SWC days. Next Week: Rice at Tulsa

Marshall 16, UTEP 12- UTEP’s collapse is in full swing, and it could cost Mike Price his job if it doesn’t stop and stop soon.  UTEP took the lead in the fourth quarter, but a 2 point conversion attempt was intercepted for a safety, which turned what should have been 13 or 14 to 7 lead into a 12-9 game, but Marshall took the win outright with a touchdown instead of a tying field goal late in the game.  Next Week: SMU at UTEP, Marshall at UAB

UCF 49, East Carolina 35- The UCF offense has not been stopped, except by the clock running out, on a first half drive in two games.  Against ECU, UCF scored touchdowns on 7 of 8 drives that didn’t involve kneeling down.  ECU was nearly as explosive on offense, but UCF made just a few stops, particularly in the first half, that provided the difference in the game.  Next Week: UCF at Houston (Friday night), Navy at East Carolina

SMU 31, Tulane 17- SMU gets things back on track against the Green Wave, but they had to rally back from a 17-3 deficit late in the third quarter.  Four straight touchdowns put the game away for the Mustangs. Next Week: Southern Miss at Tulane, SMU at UTEP

Houston 56, Memphis 17- A 28 point second quarter removed all doubt in this one, while 14 of Memphis’ points came in the 4th quarter with the outcome long since decided.  Next Week: UCF at Houston (Friday night), Tennessee at Memphis

Conference USA Standings

Conference Championship Races

East

UCF is now in charge of the East, with a two game lead over Southern Mississippi and East Carolina (with the tiebreaker).  East Carolina needs to win out and see UCF lose twice, while Southern Miss needs to beat UCF in two weeks, win out, and have ECU lose two more.  UAB needs a complete collapse from UCF to vault all the way into the title game.

West

Houston is still in the driver’s seat, but they still have UCF, Tulsa and Southern Miss ahead.  SMU needs just one Houston loss if they can get past UTEP, Marshall and East Carolina.  Tulsa is still hanging around, but needs two more SMU losses which is looking increasingly unlikely.

Conference Championship Game Home Field

Home field goes to the team with the best conference record, which means that this week’s UCF-Houston game could be decisive- if Houston wins and both teams then win out, both sides will be 7-1 meaning the game will happen in Texas.  If UCF wins, SMU takes charge of the west and will have to see if UCF drops one of their final games.  If they do, then the tiebreaker would become BCS ranking since SMU and UCF will not play this year.

Week 9 Power Rankings

Things are starting to sort themselves out, but C-USA is consistently mayhem in November, so nothing is set in stone just yet.

1. UCF
2. East Carolina
3. Houston
4. SMU
5. Tulsa
6. UAB
7. Southern Miss
8. Marshall
9. Tulane
10. UTEP
11. Rice
12. Memphis

12:00 PM, CSS- UAB at Southern Miss: Southern Miss has been playing well lately, but UAB [...]]]> We’re finally getting into the meat of the conference schedule, although even this week we have C-USA teams going out of conference for games.  Nonetheless, the results of the games tomorrow will have a profound impact on the league championship race.

12:00 PM, CSS- UAB at Southern Miss: Southern Miss has been playing well lately, but UAB has improved rapidly since their loss to UCF a few weeks ago.  I don’t think they’ve jumped to the level of USM, but if Southern Miss is taking the Blazers for granted, they could get in trouble.  Line: Southern Miss by 9.5.  Ultimately, I think 10 or more is a comfortable prediction for this one.  USM takes it 35-20.

2:30 PM, NBC- Tulsa at Notre Dame: The Golden Hurricane jump onto the national stage for the first time since their opener against ECU, taking on a Notre Dame team that just got throttled by Navy and is fighting for their bowl lives.  Line: Notre Dame by 8.5.  I have to be honest- I know almost nothing about this year’s Notre Dame team. Don’t care, don’t really want to know.  But Tulsa has a really good offense, so I’m going to blindly guess that they can keep up with the domers.  Notre Dame hangs on 28-24.

3:00 PM- UTEP at Marshall: UTEP is in freefall after losing to UAB and Tulane, stuck at 5 wins.  Marshall has also lost their last games, and badly, so this game turns into an ugly tossup.  Line: Marshall by 2.5.  In a contest of who has been playing worse, that has to go to Marshall, so I’m foolishly going with UTEP again.  Miners win this one 23-20.

3:30 PM- East Carolina at UCF: Game of the Year of the Week in C-USA.  This is the latest point that conference unbeatens have faced off in the current C-USA era, etc, etc.  UCF has an elite defense, ECU has an elite offense.  I’ve been waiting for this game for ages, and it can’t get here soon enough.  Line: UCF by 7.5.  This seems a little high to me, but UCF has covered each of the last three games. UCF has proven very successful at shutting down one-dimensional offenses, and that’s what ECU brings- a passing game with almost no ground attack.  I think they do it again this weekend and send the Pirates packing 34-20.

3:30 PM- SMU at Tulane: SMU is reeling after the Houston loss, but their schedule is easier from here than the Cougars.  They have to take care of business against a dangerous Tulane team to stay alive for the league title.  Line: SMU by 8.  I think Tulane might hang around in this one.  I’ll say SMU wins it by a touchdown, 35-28

7:00 PM, CSS- Houston at Memphis: The horribleness that is Memphis football cannot be overstated.  Line: Houston by 14.  I really expected it to be around 21, which might have been tough to decide, but 14 is easy.  Houston 31-10.

Picks went 2-3 last week.  This week:
USM -9.5 vs. UAB
Tulsa +8.5 at Notre Dame
UTEP +2.5 at Marshall
UCF -7.5 vs. ECU
Tulane +8 vs. SMU
Houston -14 at Memphis

My conclusion- the gap [...]]]> Last night NC State rallied to beat #16 FSU.  Ordinarily, I would care very little about this game, but since NC State has faced both ECU and UCF, who play tomorrow, the game became a bit of a measuring stick for the state of non-BCS college football, at least at the top end.

My conclusion- the gap is closing.  I’m not going to go all transitive on you and say that ECU is automatically better than FSU, although it’s distinctly possible for actual football reasons.  UCF came 11 yards from taking NC State to overtime, despite starting the wrong quarterback.  I’m not trying to play the what if game, but as a UCF fan, I’d love to have that game back.

The reality is this- UCF, ECU, NC State, FSU, and an array of teams in that range are would all play very competitive games against each other.  Would the ACC teams win more of those games? Certainly- they did go 2-1 against ECU and 1-0 against UCF.  But every one of those games was competitive, at least for a half and generally more than that.   ECU, of course, has been doing this for years, and UCF finally looks like they might not have to rebuild every other season.  We’ll get more opportunity to keep an eye on these things next year, when ECU gets UNC and Va Tech at home, plus a Charlotte game against South Carolina, while Boston College will venture into Orlando.

Oh, remember Tulsa, who played ECU to a two point hail-mary game on opening weekend? They have Notre Dame this weekend.  Stay tuned.

UCF 41, Rice 14- Rice couldn’t sustain any momentum from their win [...]]]> More chaos in C-USA West this weekend, as the clear leader steps aside for the pre-season favorite while UTEP appears to be in freefall.  On the East side, everything went according to plan as the Game of the Year of the Week looms this Saturday.

UCF 41, Rice 14- Rice couldn’t sustain any momentum from their win over Houston, as UCF scores touchdowns on it’s first six possessions, including 5 for 5 in the first half.  Next Week: ECU at UCF, Rice is idle.

Houston 45, SMU 20- This game could be considered close until Houston stretched a 7 point lead into the final margin over the last 20 minutes or so.  Houston now regains control of the division, although both teams now sit on one loss.  Next Week: Houston at Memphis, SMU at Tulane

East Carolina 37, Marshall 10- Marshall finishes a 3 game stretch against the best of the East, losing all 3 by a 113-40 margin.  ECU avoids any kind of trap to stay in control of the league.  Next Week: ECU at UCF, UTEP at Marshall

Mississippi State 29, UAB 24- UAB let this one slip away, leading 24-23 in the fourth quarter, before the Bulldogs ground away two more field goals that UAB couldn’t respond to.  UAB has looked like a different team since they lost to UCF, but is there enough time to salvage the season? Next Week: UAB at Southern Miss

Tulane 34, UTEP 24- Tulane’s up & down season continues, while UTEP appears stuck on five wins despite not playing a difficult schedule before or since.  UTEP had this one tied early in the fourth, but Tulane scored 10 unanswered to win this one.  Next Week: UTEP at Marshall, SMU at Tulane

C-USA Standings

Conference Championship Race

East

For now, UCF & ECU looks like the game that will decide the championship, although neither team is done after Saturday.  UCF has Houston and Southern Miss in the following weeks, while ECU’s season ends hosting SMU.  Southern Miss is right back in the race if UCF wins this weekend, but would still need one more loss from ECU if they win out.

West

The West race is still very much alive, and while Houston has the edge with the tiebreaker over SMU, they face a tougher road to the finish with UCF & Southern Miss both coming over from the East.  SMU’s schedule softens substantially before that season ender in Greenville.  Tulsa still has an outside chance, although they probably need SMU to lose twice, because a 3-way tie may not be resolved in their favor.

Week 8 Power Rankings

1. East Carolina
2. UCF
3. Southern Miss
4. Houston
5. SMU
6. Tulsa
7. Tulane
8. UTEP
9. UAB
10. Rice
11. Marshall
12. Memphis