The At-Large Situation & Notre Dame

We have a few bowls with openings, and a few leagues with extra teams:

Openings:

• EagleBank Bowl (ACC 8th Spot, possibly Army’s spot).  CUSA will get one of the openings, the other will be at-large.
• GMAC Bowl (ACC 9th Spot)
• Humanitarian (MWC 5th Spot- MWC has 5 teams, but TCU to the BCS empties a bowl spot)

Overflowing Conferences:

• Southeastern- Right now, 10 eligible teams for 9 spots.  7-5 teams include Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Arkansas and Auburn. No 6-6 teams. However, if both Florida and Alabama do go to BCS games, problem solved.  Projecting that they will.
• Pac-10- 7 teams for 6 spots, and unlikely to get a second BCS bowl.  However, UCLA is 6-6 and cannot be placed ahead of a 7-5 team, and the Pac-10 can’t pick them for a bowl over one of their own, then putting a 7-5 team on the at-large market (NCAA Division I Bylaw 30.9.2.1).  So the problem does solve itself, really.
• Mid-American- 5 teams for 3 spots.  7-5 teams are Bowling Green and Northern Illinois.  No 6-6 teams.
• WAC- 3 bowls, could have 5 eligible teams.  7-5 teams are Idaho, possibly Fresno State. If Hawaii loses and Boise State goes to the BCS, problem solved.
• Sun Belt- 1 bowl, 2 nine win teams, 2 more at 6-6.  Middle Tennessee is 9-3, Louisianas Monroe & Lafayette both 6-6.

So if you project Hawaii to lose and send Boise & Alabama to the BCS, what you’re left with is 9-3 Middle Tennessee, 7-5 Bowling Green and NIU, and a couple 6-6 Sun Belt teams.  I think the first three are off to the bowls listed above, while the Belt pair are done for the year.  UCLA is also out of luck.

Then there’s the Notre Dame factor.  The Gator Bowl has the right to take Notre Dame based on some sort of contractual deal, and if they do, the Big East could have somebody fall down into the at-large pool.  Right now, that team looks like it could be UConn, currently at 6-5.  They play South Florida this week, putting the non-BCS world in the horribly uncomfortable position of rooting for the Bulls in order to put UConn at 6-6 and out of the way of the 7-5 non-BCS schools.  If UConn wins, and the Gator picks ND, consider UConn or USF projected to the Humanitarian bowl, and give my regards to Northern Illinois.

The Sun Bowl also has an agreement with Notre Dame, but that spot is assigned to a Big 12 team, and if ND is picked there, it will drop a 6-6 Kansas State or Texas A&M team down and out of the bowl picture, not threatening our three teams.

As far as I can tell, most bowls won’t be able to pick the Domers without a contract in place, since they’re 6-6, which is why it almost has to be the Gator Bowl.  However, the Gator may prefer to have a good team there instead, and they have second pick from the Big East, which means that most likely two of Pitt, Cincinnati, and West Virginia will be available.

BCS Bowls

Boise now just needs favorites to win their conference title games, and they should be in.  There is, of course, a bit of a conundrum as a neutral fan of non-BCS teams- if Nebraska upsets Texas, TCU could get a title shot (although Cincinnati could jump them, playing a respectable Pitt team Thursday night), but if that happens, then Boise’s BCS chances are on the rocks.

Sugar- TCU vs. SEC runner up

Fiesta- Boise State vs. Iowa or Penn State.  Boise fans

Conference USA

C-USA, as I understand it, operates a little differently from some of the other leagues- after the Liberty Bowl makes its pick, the league office actually assigns teams to the other bowls in cooperation with bowl leadership, so the order of selection from Hawaii to St. Pete is a little less clear.  The bowls below there, however, get lesser picks since they’re conditional.

Liberty- Houston vs. Arkansas in an old Southwest Conference reunion.  Could also be Auburn.

Hawaii- SMU vs. Idaho.  But if Hawaii beats Wisconsin this weekend, the Warriors automatically take the bowl.

Armed Forces (Ft. Worth, TX)- Southern Mississippi vs. Air Force.  Only two bowl-eligible teams coming out of CUSA West this year, and USM is the westernmost team in the East division.

New Orleans- East Carolina vs. Troy – word is that the N.O. Bowl would rather have a team from farther away this year, since the Southern Miss crowd just comes for the day, and they’d like to grab a team that will stick around and spend some money in the city.  Eaglebank would probably like to have ECU, but they may not have the option.

St. Petersburg – UCF vs. Connecticut.  There’s some buzz for a UCF vs. USF matchup, but I think USF will get picked higher in the Big East shuffle- the St. Pete bowl is 6th in line, and they also had USF there last year.

EagleBank (Washington, DC)- Marshall vs. Bowling Green.  At least one of the EagleBank bids is going to have to be conditional, or just delayed, because it could go to Army if they upset Navy in a strangely scheduled December 12 game.  The MAC does not have any official tie to the bowl this year, and since the ACC can’t fill it’s spot, that position will go to CUSA, so some team will get invited quickly but probably not know who the other side is going to be for another week.  If Army beats Navy on December 12 (why on earth did the NCAA ok that?), Army is in the game against the CUSA team.

Texas (Houston, TX)- Texas A&M vs. Navy.

Mid-American

The MAC also seems to have some control over which team goes where, although I can’t say I completely understand their system.

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl (Detroit, formerly Motor City Bowl) – Central Michigan vs Minnesota.  This would be a great matchup for the bowl, with both teams within at least a long days drive of Detroit.

GMAC Bowl (Mobile, AL)- Ohio vs. Middle Tennessee State- With Ohio advancing to the title game, I think the GMAC would like to have at least a division champion to put up against a good MTSU team.

International (Toronto)- Temple vs. Rutgers- this would be a pretty good game for Toronto, with two 8+ win teams and an old Big East rivalry of sorts.

EagleBank- Bowling Green vs. Marshall- I think this game will go to a 7 win MAC school, either BGSU or NIU, but they’re going to be left hanging for a week waiting to see if Army loses against Navy as expected.  If Army does upset Navy for the first time in a bunch of years, then the team that would have gone here will be out of luck, since the other bowls will probably be filled up by December 6 or 7.

Humanitarian- Projecting Northern Illinois to head west to play Fresno State.  If the Big East team does have an at-large team, I think they’re here and NIU is probably at home.

Mountain West

As mentioned, I think TCU is Sugar Bowl bound.

Las Vegas- Utah vs. Arizona.  No change from my last estimation, despite BYU winning, I’ve seen discussion from those in the know that suggest Vegas and BYU are ready for a break from each other.

Poinsettia (San Deigo)- BYU vs. California.  Again, not changing here, I think this would be a good fit for Team, Fans, and Bowl.

Armed Forces- Air Force vs. Southern Mississippi.  It will be AFA’s third consecutive Armed Forces bowl, but they’re a good fit there and the only other option is Wyoming.

New Mexico (Albuquerque)- Wyoming vs. Nevada.  It’s a tough spot to have to send a mid-pack MWC team, since the top bunch in the WAC is really good, but this game might draw a pretty good crowd.

Humanitarian (Boise, ID)- This game will go to an at-large team, probably all the way from the Sun Belt or MAC.  Right now, I’m thinking Ohio since Bowling Green played Boise State earlier this year.

Alternate MWC/WAC bowl possibility: The MWC has five bowls but only four teams for them after TCU heads to the BCS.  The WAC has just three bowls but four teams for them, if Boise doesn’t go to the BCS.  One of the MWC bowls will therefore go at large, but the last two already have WAC ties, so perhaps the Armed Forces bowl will actually go to Fresno State instead of Air Force.  It would make sense to me, but maybe not for the bowl.  This would send Air Force up to the Humanitarian bowl, which would be as good of an at-large matchup as Boise State is going to find at this point.

Sun Belt

New Orleans- Troy vs. East Carolina.  Troy has locked up the bid.

The Sun Belt has deals with the St. Pete, Papa Johns, and Independence bowls if any of those three come up short from their first-choice conferences.  Unfortunately, none of them are going to.

I am projecting Middle Tennessee State to the GMAC bowl, which will have an extra slot available from the ACC and no contractual fill-in.  Nobody else in the league got to the 7 win mark, and I think they’ll all be at home for the winter.

Western Athletic

As noted, I am now fairly confident that Boise is going to get into the Fiesta.

Humanitarian- Really not sure on this one.  Idaho just lost again, so in their last 5 games, they’ve lost four and beat Louisiana Tech by a single point, which isn’t a great resume for getting into the league’s top bowl.  But on the other hand, the league’s #2 team was just here, and would then play back-to-back games on the blue turf- not so appealing for traveling fans.  So I think those two get shuffled out, and I’m putting Fresno State into the spot, against Northern Illinois.

New Mexico- Nevada vs. Wyoming.  I think it’s a good match up, despite being a not-so-prestigious bowl.

Hawaii- Assuming Hawaii doesn’t beat Wisconsin, Idaho vs. SMU. If they do, then Idaho is probably heading east for an at-large spot.  Maybe the Eaglebank out in DC.

Poinsettia- won’t be available to the WAC.

As always, comments are welcome- where are you hoping your team winds up?