Football on the Fringe » bcs busting

BCS Buster Watch – Week 2

lowercase — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 14:19:53 +0000

We still have 27 teams that haven’t lost a game, so they’re still contenders to bust the BCS. I was getting pretty sure that Boise State was coming off the list until Virginia Tech gifted them more than enough time to take the win, and I’m glad they did. But instead of trying to profile all 27, we’re just going to check in on the guys from last week’s list and add a few to fill it back in to 10. We bid a fond farewell to Middle Tennessee State and Northern Illinois, and also to Navy who wasn’t on the list but should have been. They may still have great seasons, but they won’t be in the BCS picture.

Since we’re calling it a watch, we’ll name it for the week coming up. The top 25 (later) is named for the week gone by. It makes no sense, I know.

Like last week, we’re skipping Boise State, TCU, and Utah and sticking with 10 teams that could make a run, or at least win enough games to get noticed before the schedule tears them down. For now, these are presented in no particular order.

Team	W	L	Last Week	This Week	Coaches Poll
Houston	1	0	d. Texas State	UTEP (Fri)	26th
Houston gave up some points to Texas State, and their defense is the big question mark. This week’s game with UTEP has revenge written all over it- UTEP was the first team to beat the Cougars a year ago. Future games: at UCLA, Miss State, at Texas Tech
UCF	1	0	d. South Dakota	NC State	NR
One of the biggest games of the week on the Fringe is in Orlando Saturday night, as the only team in CUSA to hold anyone under 10 points takes on a passing attack from the ACC. Future Games: at Kansas State, at Houston
Central Michigan	1	0	d. Hampton	at Temple (Thu)	NR
The Chips start with a top MAC team, then Eastern Michigan next week, before heading out to play against BCS level competition. Future Games: at Northwestern, at Virginia Tech, at Northern Ill, at Navy
Temple	1	0	d. Villanova	Central Michigan (Thu)	52nd
The MAC will narrow down it’s list of unbeaten contenders in a hurry. Things only get worse from here for Temple with UConn and Penn State lurking before September ends.
Air Force	1	0	d. Northwestern State	BYU	52nd
We may have to add the big three back to this list next week, because it’s going to get short in a hurry. Air Force hasn’t beaten BYU since 2003 and have to like their chances, but the Cougars looked pretty good against Washington. Future Games: at Oklahoma, Navy, at TCU, Utah
BYU	1	0	d. Washington	at Air Force	24th
If BYU can overcome Air Force on the road on September 11, then we’ll know they’re immune to almost any distraction or home field advantage. That won’t automatically make them better than TCU or Utah, but it will speak volumes about mental toughness. Future Games: at Florida State, Nevada, at TCU, at Utah
Fresno State	1	0	d. Cincinnati	idle	45th
Fresno picked up a handful of votes for knocking of Cincinnat, the first of three BCS foes they’ll face. They get a week off before heading over to face plucky Utah State in week 3. Future Games: at Ole Miss, at Boise State, Illinois
Nevada	1	0	d. Eastern Washington	Colorado State	52nd
Nevada took their time putting away Eastern Washington, raising a few questions about this year’s defense. If they can’t hold Colorado State down this weekend, then there’s trouble ahead. Future Games: Cal, at BYU, at Fresno State, Boise State
East Carolina	1	0	d. Tulsa	Memphis	NR
Our first newcomer this week, earns the spot on account of beating an FBS opponent. In high flying, if defense-free fashion. They did get a sole vote in the AP, and what should be an easy home game against Memphis means they’ll be on this list at least a little while. Future Games: at Virginia Tech, at North Carolina, NC State, at UCF
Troy	1	0	d. Bowling Green	at Oklahoma State	NR
Troy gets the last spot for beating a MAC opponent, even if I don’t think BGSU is up for a very good year. If Troy can go out and beat Oklahoma State, well, now we’re talking. That doesn’t seem terribly likely, but we’ll keep an eye on them for now. Future Games: at Middle Tennessee, at South Carolina

Season Preview- #1: Boise State

lowercase — Fri, 20 Aug 2010 17:00:18 +0000

Football on the Fringe Season Previews were ranked, then delivered in random order.

Boise State comes into the year as one of the most talked about teams in America- 14-0 last year after beating TCU in the Fiesta Bowl, ranked #5 in the Coaches Poll (AP poll is expected tomorrow), and a huge season opener against #6 Virginia Tech as the centerpiece of Week 1.

To further support the anticipation, Boise State is coming back loaded. 9 offensive starters including star QB Kellen Moore- still only a junior- and four running backs that each had at least one 100 yard game last year. The defense is similarly stacked- 10 starters are back on that side.

Schedule

9/6/2010   vs. Virginia Tech
9/18/2010   at Wyoming
9/25/2010   Oregon State
10/2/2010   at New Mexico State
10/9/2010   Toledo
10/16/2010   at San Jose State
10/26/2010   Louisiana Tech
11/6/2010   Hawaii
11/12/2010   at Idaho
11/19/2010   Fresno State
11/26/2010   at Nevada
12/4/2010   Utah State

This is as good a schedule as Boise could reasonably be expected to put together. The season practically rides on the Monday night showdown with Virginia Tech- win that and there shouldn’t be anyone left to stop the Broncos. But if they want to be in the BCS Championship Game, the reality is that they’re going to have to blow the snot out of every team in the WAC. It’s a completely unfair expectation, and not very sporting, but I saw what happened last year when Tulsa and La Tech gave the Broncos tough games- the media had a fit about how unimpressed they were with BSU and they lost votes. If you’re reading this, you know Nevada is going to be good this year, and that Idaho and Fresno State should be tough games, but you and I don’t have poll votes.

Coaching

Chris Peterson has been at Boise State since 2001, and head coach since 2006. His team has lost four games since he took over. Four. His name does come up every year in conjunction with BCS jobs, but all signs point to Peterson being happy and comfortable with what he has there in Boise. The impending move to the Mountain West (at least as of right this very second) should keep things interesting there for a while, but it also seems like eventually someone’s going to come at Peterson with an ungodly pile of cash and a very difficult decision.

Rankings

The WAC Coaches & Media both picked Boise State to win the league, and as noted the USA Today Coaches Poll has Boise #5. Alabama (1) and Florida (3) will play during the regular season, which means that Boise needs losses from Ohio State and Texas (or the winner of Bama vs. UF) to move up into the top two. Behind them lurks Virginia Tech and TCU, but if Boise State takes care of business they should stay clear of both.

Outlook

Boise State should go undefeated. They have the talent to beat Virginia Tech, perhaps convincingly. They’ll need to if they want a crack at the title game, because their schedule strength is going to be a problem in the national media, despite the track record. It seems very realistic that the top four could all pick up a loss this year, so a 12-0 Boise State should have a chance, but only if they are head & shoulders above everybody else on their schedule.

Boise State Connections

Official Football Site

Official Twitter Feed

Bronco Country – Scout message board

Idaho Statesman – Local coverage of the Broncos

The Weekend Ahead: What Big Conference Games Mean

lowercase — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 13:35:10 +0000

Before we get into previews of the games that our conferences have lined up this weekend, let’s take a look at what the implications are of the other games on the docket for this week and weekend.

Oregon State at Oregon (Thursday): National Implications: Winner advances to the Rose Bowl. Non-BCS Implications: Virtually none. The loser will be down to at least three losses, and the winner will take a spot that was never available for a non-BCS team.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh:National Implications: Winner is Big East Champ & Earns BCS Auto-Bid. Non-BCS Implications: If Cincy wins as expected, it should not affect either team (Boise State or TCU). If Pitt wins, you then have an 11-1 Cincinnati making a decent case for inclusion in the BCS, which could knock Boise out.

Alabama vs. Florida: National Implications: Winner likely advances to BCS Championship Game, loser likely advances to Sugar Bowl. Non-BCS Implications: Most likely, only in determining an opponent. It seems likely that one or the other will wind up in the Sugar, so they will likely expect to see the SEC runner up.

Clemson vs. Georgia Tech: National Implications: Winner advances to BCS bowl, loser likely out of consideration. Non-BCS Implications: Most likely none. If Tech loses, that’s their third loss of the year, and the consensus is that a 3 loss team will not get picked over a 13-0 Boise State.

Nebraska vs. Texas: National Implications: If Texas wins, likely to advance to BCS Championship Game. If Nebraska wins, they earn a BCS bowl bid and relegate Texas to at-large. Non-BCS Implications: Huge. If Nebraska pulls off the upset, Boise State is very likely out of the running- they’ll be competing with Iowa/Penn State and Texas for only 2 spots. But if that happens, then TCU has an open door to the Championship Game unless they get jumped by Cincinnati, which is a possibility. But if Texas wins, especially if Cincy wins earlier in the day, then Boise State can finally take a breath, and both teams should find homes in the BCS mix.

Fringe Hangover, Sunday, November 29

lowercase — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 16:17:09 +0000

For most of America’s 1-A college football teams, the regular season has come to a close. The conferences with no championship game have a few games here and there over the next few weeks, and four non-BCS teams have appointments with championship games next week. Here are some of the highlights from yesterday’s action:

Troy and TCU claimed their league titles outright, both at 8-0 in their respective conferences.
East Carolina and Houston both won, advancing to the CUSA title game which will be hosted by ECU.
Hawaii beat Navy last night, climbing to 6-6, and can advance to the Hawaii Bowl if they beat Wisconsin at home next week.
Middle Tennessee State won again, ending their year at 9-3 and with only one league loss, looking like a lock for an at-large bowl bid.
UAB came up short in its bid for bowl eligibility, losing to UCF, who ends the year at 8-4.
Oklahoma’s shutout of Oklahoma State clears a path for Boise State to advance to a BCS game, while Georgia’s upset of Georgia Tech means that a Clemson upset in the ACC-CG should not be a problem for Boise. Their main problems right now would be a Nebraska upset over Texas, or a Pitt surprise over Cincinnati.
Utah State beat Idaho, meaning that the Vandals have gone from 7-2 to 7-5. I’m no longer thinking they’ll go to the Humanitarian bowl, although if that bowl does pick Nevada, it would be back-to-back games in Boise for the Wolfpack, so who knows.
This happened Friday, but Eastern Michigan is the first 0-12 team of the year. Western Kentucky will try to avoid that fate Thursday night at home with Arkansas State in town.

Fringe Hangover, 11/28: Two More Champs

lowercase — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:35:10 +0000

In case you were being dragged around the malls into the afternoon, we had two more titles handed out over the last 24 hours or so, and the BCS picture isn’t getting any better for Boise State. Here’s what we know, and what we think:

Ohio 35, Temple 17- Ohio is you MAC East Champion and will go on to play Central Michigan on Friday night. Both teams end their seasons at 9-3, as Temple’s 9 game streak comes to an end.
Boise State 44, Nevada 33- The Wolf Pack gave the Broncos all they could, but BSU got out to a big lead early and Nevada couldn’t get caught up. Boise State repeats as WAC champion, and will look to go 8-0 in the league for 2 years running next week.
Texas survived a good game from Texas A&M to stay in the driver seat for a BCS slot.
Alabama did the same against Auburn, to keep the SEC Championship locked in as a play-in game, unless UF loses to FSU today.
Pitt lost to West Virginia last night, which essentially eliminates them from BCS consideration unless they beat Cincinnati next week, and could mean that Cincy will not be rewarded with a BCS bowl if they lose to Pitt next week.

All this means is that as long as Cincinnati beats Pitt next week, it’s still a three way dance between Boise State, Oklahoma State (if they win today, and that’s a pretty big if), and Penn State/Iowa for two remaining places. If Oklahoma wins today, then a pretty clear path opens for BSU’s inclusion, especially if Cincinnati does beat Pitt next week.

Games I’ll be watching or keeping an eye on today:

Okie Lite at Oklahoma is on Fox Sports Net, 12:30, so no telling if I’ll be able to find it. But that’s a big one for everyone involved.
New Mexico at TCU is at 1 on the Mtn. I’ll keep an eye on the scoreboard on that one.
Southern Miss at ECU, 1:30, CBSC- CUSA East Championship
Florida State at Florida is 3:30 on CBS- FSU is our last hope for a rivalry weekend upset to shake up the standings.
Utah at BYU is at 5 on CBSC & Mtn, big game but without too much meaning this year.

A few key games in the CUSA Championship & Bowl picture are not on national TV:

Houston plays Rice at noon, win and they’re in the title game. Rice has been bad, but they’re on a 2 game win streak and this is a cross-town rivalry.
UCF is at UAB but not on TV, 1:30, UAB is playing for bowl eligibility
Marshall is playing at UTEP, 3:00, Marshall is hunting an important 7th win, they’d rather not be stuck at 6-6 especially if UAB gets there.
Tulane at SMU is also at 3, SMU needs a Houston loss and a win here to back into the game. They should know by the end of the 1st quarter what the deal is.