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Things went mostly according to plan in the MAC this weekend, with only a mild upset at the bottom of the standings disrupting the favorites’ day.
Northern Illinois 28, Western Michigan 21- This was a back & forth affair, with WMU leading 21-20 inside six minutes to play, but the Huskies responded with the winning touchdown to remain unbeaten in the MAC heading into next weekend’s showdown. Next Game: Toledo at Northern Illinois (Tuesday 11/9), Western Michigan at Central Michigan (Friday 11/5)
Temple 30, Akron 0- This result is of course, remarkably unsurprising. Akron is bad at football this year. Next Game: Temple at Kent State (Saturday), Akron at Ball State (Saturday)
Ohio 38, Louisiana 31- Louisiana led much of this game, but a wild 4th quarter saw Ohio grab the lead and pull away for the win. Still, a surprisingly competitive game for a Rajin’ Cajuns team that appeared to be done a week ago. Next Game: Buffalo at Ohio (Thursday 11/5)
Miami 21, Buffalo 9- Miami bounces back from the loss to Ohio and is now one game from bowl eligibility. The Redhawks never trailed in this one, as Buffalo struggled to make it interesting as the game wound down. Next Game: Buffalo at Ohio (Thursday 11/5), Miami at Bowling Green (Wednesday 11/10)
Bowling Green 17, Central Michigan 10- Bowling Green gets a last minute touchdown to secure their first MAC win of the season. Next Game: Western Michigan at Central Michigan (Friday 11/5), Miami at Bowling Green (Wednesday 11/10)
Kent State 33, Ball State 14- Ball State hung around for a while, trailing 14-20 heading into the fourth, but Kent State put the game away with a pair of touchdowns. Next Game: Temple at Kent State (Saturday), Akron at Ball State (Saturday)
Toledo 42, Eastern Michigan 7- Toledo coasted through the Ball State game last week, but had no trouble dismantling Eastern Michigan. Next Game: Toledo at Northern Illinois (Tuesday 11/9), Eastern Michigan idle.
MAC Standings
|
Conference |
Overall |
|
W |
L |
W |
L |
|
|
East |
|
| Temple |
4 |
1 |
7 |
2 |
| Ohio |
4 |
1 |
6 |
3 |
| Miami |
4 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
| Kent State |
3 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
| Buffalo |
1 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
| Bowling Green |
1 |
4 |
2 |
7 |
| Akron |
0 |
5 |
0 |
9 |
|
|
West |
|
| Northern Illinois |
5 |
0 |
7 |
2 |
| Toledo |
5 |
0 |
6 |
3 |
| Western Michigan |
2 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
| Eastern Michigan |
1 |
4 |
1 |
8 |
| Ball State |
1 |
4 |
2 |
7 |
| Central Michigan |
1 |
5 |
2 |
7 |
Conference Championship Races
East
Everything is coming down to the final few weeks in the East, with Temple still waiting to face off with Miami and Ohio. If Temple fades, Ohio does have the tiebreaker over Miami, but if Miami can top Temple but get the Owls to beat Ohio, Miami takes the league.
West
NIU and Toledo have pulled away from the pack and will most likely settle the issue on November 9. Western Michigan has lost to both teams, and the rest of the division is deplorable.
Week 9 Power Rankings
This has become a league of two halves- the top half has some pretty good football teams in it, while the bottom half could lose to anybody in the country on most weekends.
- Northern Illinois
- Toledo
- Temple
- Ohio
- Miami
- Kent State
- Western Michigan
- Buffalo
- Bowling Green
- Eastern Michigan
- Ball State
- Central Michigan
- Akron
I was on campus all day for my local C-USA game while the Sun Belt was playing, and I had to double check this morning to see if the scores I saw Saturday night were right, or just me in a tired, gleeful haze reading them wrong. Apparently, it’s true. The best looking teams in the league lost, kicking the league wide open again as we sprint to the finish.
Ohio 38, Louisiana 31- Louisiana led much of this game, but a wild 4th quarter saw Ohio grab the lead and pull away for the win. Still, a surprisingly competitive game for a Rajin’ Cajuns team that appeared to be done a week ago. Next Week: Louisiana at Ole Miss
North Texas 33, Western Kentucky 6- There will be no winning streak for the Hilltoppers. They did lead 3-0 in the 2nd after a scoreless first quarter, but the Mean Green started scoring and never stopped, for their first win in interim coach Mike Canales’ first game. Next Week: Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky, Troy at North Texas
ULM 28, Troy 14- Troy suffers their first Sun Belt loss November 2008, when it was also ULM who knocked them off. Troy led for exactly 88 seconds in this one, which went back and forth until Troy stopped scoring. All is not lost for the Trojans, but ULM is now only a half game behind them in Sun Belt play (more on this in a moment). Next Week: Troy at North Texas, ULM at FIU
Florida Atlantic 21, FIU 9- FIU has never beaten the Owls, and they may not have too many chances better than this one. FAU was reeling, but the Panthers simply traded field goals for touchdowns and never seemed competitive. Both teams are now on 5 losses, and who knows, one or both could still make a run at bowl eligibility.
Sun Belt Standings
|
Conference |
Overall |
| Troy |
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
| Middle Tennessee |
2 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
| FIU |
2 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
| Arkansas State |
3 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
| ULM |
3 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
| Louisiana |
2 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
| North Texas |
2 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
| Florida Atlantic |
1 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
| Western Kentucky |
1 |
3 |
1 |
7 |
Conference Championship Race
Troy’s fall to earth throws the race wide open, with 5 teams still realistically alive in the hunt. It’s worth pointing out that the league does recognize co-champions when teams finish with the same record, but the automatic bid to the New Orleans Bowl is usually settled by head-to-head results if teams have the same record.
Control Their Destiny
Troy & FIU. They face off later in November, and if both teams win out otherwise, that game will determine the championship.
Need Some Help
Middle Tennessee is right back in the hunt, but if they beat FIU, still need another loss from Troy to claim the title outright.
ULM now holds a tiebreaker over Troy, but needs the three teams ahead to all pick up losses, and needs Middle Tennessee State to lose twice more.
Arkansas State is in a similar spot, needing Troy to pick up two more losses, but they have a win over ULM and games against MTSU and FIU ahead.
Essentially Out
There may be scenarios where one of the three loss teams could win out, get lots of help from other teams at the bottom, and steal the league, but they’re incredibly unlikely, meaning that Louisiana, North Texas, FAU, and Western Kentucky will most likely not win the league this year.
Week 9 Power Rankings
The Sun Belt is not having a very good season overall- right now one team is 4-3, one is 4-4, and everybody else is still below .500 . I’m giving ULM the nod for this week, because despite not having much in the way of wins, they have more than anyone else, except the team they beat Saturday. I’m skeptical of their chances to keep it up, but maybe this triggers a run to a bowl game for the Warhawks.
- ULM
- Troy
- Middle Tennessee
- Arkansas State
- FAU
- FIU
- North Texas
- Western Kentucky
- Louisiana
This is a quieter week in the western leagues, matchup-wise, before the fireworks start next week (TCU-Utah, Hawaii-Boise).
Mountain West
2:00 PM, The Mtn- San Diego State at Wyoming: The season comes down to this for the Cowboys- find a way to beat SDSU, and they could conceivably win out and find a bowl home at 6-6. Meanwhile, the Aztecs are on the brink of bowl eligibility themselves, but they would rather get that 6th win before facing TCU and Utah. Line: San Diego State by 10. Wyoming’s record belies stats that suggest that they’re really a pretty good team, and maybe they finally prove that today. Not sure they can win, but it’ll be closer than the 10. SDSU escapes, 31-28.
6:00 PM, The Mtn- New Mexico at Colorado State: The 117th offense in the country heads north to face the 111th, but this isn’t even the worst matchup of the day. CSU will be looking for some revenge, as they were New Mexico’s only win last year. Line: Colorado State by 16. Let me just put this out there- if you’re wagering on this game, you have a problem. CSU by 10, tops, 20-10.
7:30 PM, CBS College- #8 Utah at Air Force: Air Force has trailed off after a great start got them ranked, but they have TCU and Utah in back-to-back weeks, which would be tough for anyone. Line: Utah by 7. This should be a good game for a while, but I think Utah will pull away sooner or later. 38-14.
11:00 PM, CBS College- #4 TCU at UNLV: Your insomniac special for the week, but it may not help- TCU should pound the Rebels. Line: TCU by 35. I’m going to say that the odd time (10 PM TCU time) and a non-motivating opponent keep this one a little closer, TCU still runs away with it, 35-7.
WAC
4:00 PM- San Jose State at New Mexico State: Ladies and gentlemen, this might be the most unwatchable football game of the year. The nation’s worst scoring offense (10 points per game) goes to face the second-worst (12 ppg). You don’t get matchups like this every day. Line: San Jose State by 3. Going entirely based on that one statistic, I’m going to take NMSU in the upset, 13-10.
10:30 PM, ESPNU- Utah State at Nevada: Nevada has to wait all day after a 2 week gap since they last played, losing at Hawaii. Utah State has been woeful since beating BYU, and this is a tough place to try to turn that tide. Line: Nevada by 26. For my money, Nevada’s defense isn’t good enough to promise an almost four touchdown win. 31-10 for the Pack.
11:30 PM- Idaho at Hawaii: Hawaii is proving to be a tough place to play for WAC teams, especially ones as defensibly questionable as Idaho has been. An upset is possible, but it might be a long night for the Vandals. Line: Hawaii by 15. Idaho has surprised me several times this year, but usually by losing. Hawaii will run away with this one, 42-21.
Pick Summary:
Wyoming +10 vs. San Diego State
New Mexico +16 at Colorado State
Utah -7 at Air Force
UNLV +35 vs. TCU
New Mexico State +3 vs. San Jose State
Utah State +26 at Nevada
Hawaii -15 vs. Idaho
At long last, the final four teams that I haven’t attached an arbitrary grade to. Here are Boise State, Fresno State, Idaho, and New Mexico State.
Boise State
Record: 7-0, 3-0 WAC
Highlights: Wins against Virginia Tech and Oregon State, #1 in total defense nationally, leading conference in a great many stat categories.
Weak Points: The schedule, also net punting is last in the WAC.
Grade: A. Nothing to find fault with. Boise State hasn’t lost now in a season and a half and hasn’t shown any signs that they’re going to this year.
Remaining Games: Hawaii, at Idaho, Fresno State, at Nevada, Utah State
Best Case: 5-0 and jumping into the national championship game.
Worst Case: 4-1 and off to San Francisco for the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Prediction:5-0, but probably left out of the national championship yet again, facing an above-average Big 12 team in the Rose Bowl.
Fresno State
Record: 5-2, 3-1 WAC
Highlights: Season opening win over Cincinnati, lead the WAC in sacks
Weak Points: Defensive collapses allowing 55 and 49 points in two losses, mid-pack at best in all the major stat categories.
Grade: B. The loss to Hawaii was a bit surprising at the time, but Hawaii has proven to be a very strong team. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is having a down year, but any win over a BCS school is a boost to a conference that needs credibility this year.
Remaining Games: At Louisiana Tech, Nevada, at Boise State, Idaho, Illinois
Best Case: 4-1 to finish 3rd in the league and head for a good bowl.
Worst Case: 1-4, which isn’t unthinkable given a quality lineup toward the end of the year.
Prediction: 3-2, which may relegate the Bulldogs to 4th in the league, and may mean a return trip to Boise, this time for the Humanitarian Bowl.
Idaho
Record: 4-3, 1-1 WAC
Highlights: 20+ point wins over UNLV and a decent Western Michigan team, #3 in the WAC for scoring defense, #2 passing offense behind only Hawaii.
Weak Points: Surprising losses to Colorado State and Louisiana Tech mean this team perhaps should be 6-1, almost no running game to be found, 118th in the country allowing sacks.
Grade: C+. If you had told me Idaho would be 4-3, I probably would have guessed they beat CSU and lost to WMU, but otherwise Idaho is playing like an above average, but far from stellar, football team.
Remaining Games: at Hawaii, Nevada, Boise State, at Utah State, at Fresno State, San Jose State
Best Case: 3-3. This is a brutal schedule for Idaho, and they have to find 3 wins to get to a bowl this year.
Worst Case: 1-5. Idaho may not be favored in any but the last game, although they shouldn’t finish this poorly.
Prediction:3-3. I think the Vandals could pull an upset against one of Hawaii, Nevada, or Fresno State and make it into a bowl again.
New Mexico State
Record: 1-6, 0-3 WAC
Highlights: Beat rival New Mexico. Lead the league, 5th in the country, in kickoff returns.
Weak Points: Outscored 254-71 in six losses, 119th in scoring offense, ranked below 100 in most categories.
Grade: F. Despite beating New Mexico, the Aggies are one of the worst teams in America, no matter how you slice it.
Remaining Games: San Jose State, at Utah State, Louisiana Tech, at Nevada, Hawaii
Best Case: 2-3. Their next two games are against other teams that range from very bad to capable-of-being-very-bad.
Worst Case: 0-5, which is almost certain if they lose to SJSU.
Prediction: 1-4. NMSU is 119th in scoring offense. #120? San Jose State.
The MAC has finally reached the end of its loaded Saturday schedules, which is cool because previewing & recapping 7 or 8 MAC games every week gets a little tedious. Weeknight play begins next Thursday for the league.
12:00 PM- Northern Illinois at Western Michigan: The marquee game of the week in the MAC, as Western will get their chance to beat a MAC team that isn’t mired in the bottom of the standings. Their pass offense has been on fire lately, but the NIU defense is the real deal. NIU then goes on to face Toledo, but they can’t get ahead of themselves tomorrow. Line: NIU by 8.5. I do think the Huskies should win, but a touchdown seems more appropriate. NIU will have to score points to do it though, so I’ll say 35-28.
1:00 PM- Akron at Temple: Temple came alive last week when they shut out Buffalo, and the schedule stays easy when Akron comes to town. Line: Temple by 29.5. I hate lines this big, even with a 42 point win against a better Buffalo team last week, since there’s always the potential for Temple to go up 24 at halftime and coast to the finish. That being said, I’ll reluctantly assume that they want to keep the momentum up before the schedule clamps down, and call it Temple 41-6.
2:00 PM- Louisiana at Ohio: Louisiana takes it’s struggling operation out of conference to face a rapidly improving Ohio team. Ohio came out of the gate slowly, but is back in the division race, while Louisiana watched Western Kentucky terminate their losing streak on the Cajuns field last week. Line: Ohio by 14.5. If Western Kentucky can do it, Ohio should too. 38-14 for the Bobcats.
3:30 PM- Miami at Buffalo: Miami hasn’t lost two games in a row all season, and I don’t think they’ll start this week, despite Buffalo looking to turn things around after last week’s loss. Line: Miami by 2.5. I’ll take that. RedHawks win this one 28-20.
3:30 PM- Bowling Green at Central Michigan: Bowling Green is already ineligible for postseason play, and CMU will be soon. My guess is that the Chips break the losing streak, but who knows. Line: Central Michigan by 11.5. That’s a lot of points for two bad teams. At most, CMU wins by 10, 24-14.
3:30 PM- Ball State at Kent State: Ball State can sneak up on teams that look past them, but ultimately Kent State should have no trouble handling them. Line: Kent State by 10. Ten is what I would have guessed. But if I had to lean one way, it’s always against Ball State, so let’s say Kent State wins this one 38-24.
4:00 PM- Toledo at Eastern Michigan: Toledo should have beaten Ball State by three touchdowns, but only managed a 7 point win. They should win this one, and maybe this is the week they don’t give their opponents a head start, but one of these days their carelessness is going to cost them. Line: Toledo by 11. Toledo is more than 11 points better than Eastern Michigan, but that doesn’t mean they’ll cover that. Either way, I’ll stick with them, against my better judgment. Toledo 31-10.
My picks went 3-4 last week, 6-10 total, reducing the overall record to 93-86-2. This week, they are summarized as such:
Western Michigan +8.5 vs. Northern Illinois
Temple -29.5 vs. Akron
Ohio -14.5 vs. Louisiana
Miami -2.5 at Buffalo
Bowling Green +11.5 at Central Michigan
Kent State -10 vs. Ball State
Toledo -11 at Eastern Michigan
We’re finally getting into the meat of the conference schedule, although even this week we have C-USA teams going out of conference for games. Nonetheless, the results of the games tomorrow will have a profound impact on the league championship race.
12:00 PM, CSS- UAB at Southern Miss: Southern Miss has been playing well lately, but UAB has improved rapidly since their loss to UCF a few weeks ago. I don’t think they’ve jumped to the level of USM, but if Southern Miss is taking the Blazers for granted, they could get in trouble. Line: Southern Miss by 9.5. Ultimately, I think 10 or more is a comfortable prediction for this one. USM takes it 35-20.
2:30 PM, NBC- Tulsa at Notre Dame: The Golden Hurricane jump onto the national stage for the first time since their opener against ECU, taking on a Notre Dame team that just got throttled by Navy and is fighting for their bowl lives. Line: Notre Dame by 8.5. I have to be honest- I know almost nothing about this year’s Notre Dame team. Don’t care, don’t really want to know. But Tulsa has a really good offense, so I’m going to blindly guess that they can keep up with the domers. Notre Dame hangs on 28-24.
3:00 PM- UTEP at Marshall: UTEP is in freefall after losing to UAB and Tulane, stuck at 5 wins. Marshall has also lost their last games, and badly, so this game turns into an ugly tossup. Line: Marshall by 2.5. In a contest of who has been playing worse, that has to go to Marshall, so I’m foolishly going with UTEP again. Miners win this one 23-20.
3:30 PM- East Carolina at UCF: Game of the Year of the Week in C-USA. This is the latest point that conference unbeatens have faced off in the current C-USA era, etc, etc. UCF has an elite defense, ECU has an elite offense. I’ve been waiting for this game for ages, and it can’t get here soon enough. Line: UCF by 7.5. This seems a little high to me, but UCF has covered each of the last three games. UCF has proven very successful at shutting down one-dimensional offenses, and that’s what ECU brings- a passing game with almost no ground attack. I think they do it again this weekend and send the Pirates packing 34-20.
3:30 PM- SMU at Tulane: SMU is reeling after the Houston loss, but their schedule is easier from here than the Cougars. They have to take care of business against a dangerous Tulane team to stay alive for the league title. Line: SMU by 8. I think Tulane might hang around in this one. I’ll say SMU wins it by a touchdown, 35-28
7:00 PM, CSS- Houston at Memphis: The horribleness that is Memphis football cannot be overstated. Line: Houston by 14. I really expected it to be around 21, which might have been tough to decide, but 14 is easy. Houston 31-10.
Picks went 2-3 last week. This week:
USM -9.5 vs. UAB
Tulsa +8.5 at Notre Dame
UTEP +2.5 at Marshall
UCF -7.5 vs. ECU
Tulane +8 vs. SMU
Houston -14 at Memphis
Last night NC State rallied to beat #16 FSU. Ordinarily, I would care very little about this game, but since NC State has faced both ECU and UCF, who play tomorrow, the game became a bit of a measuring stick for the state of non-BCS college football, at least at the top end.
My conclusion- the gap is closing. I’m not going to go all transitive on you and say that ECU is automatically better than FSU, although it’s distinctly possible for actual football reasons. UCF came 11 yards from taking NC State to overtime, despite starting the wrong quarterback. I’m not trying to play the what if game, but as a UCF fan, I’d love to have that game back.
The reality is this- UCF, ECU, NC State, FSU, and an array of teams in that range are would all play very competitive games against each other. Would the ACC teams win more of those games? Certainly- they did go 2-1 against ECU and 1-0 against UCF. But every one of those games was competitive, at least for a half and generally more than that. ECU, of course, has been doing this for years, and UCF finally looks like they might not have to rebuild every other season. We’ll get more opportunity to keep an eye on these things next year, when ECU gets UNC and Va Tech at home, plus a Charlotte game against South Carolina, while Boston College will venture into Orlando.
Oh, remember Tulsa, who played ECU to a two point hail-mary game on opening weekend? They have Notre Dame this weekend. Stay tuned.
The end is near on these silly report cards- just six teams left in the two western leagues. And most of them are pretty good teams- coming up with new ways to talk about 1 and 2 win teams gets tiresome after a while. Here’s San Diego State and Utah.
San Diego State
Record: 5-2, 2-1 Mountain West
Highlights: Beat a ranked Air Force team at home, lost to (still unbeaten) Missouri in the final seconds, top 3 in the league in nearly every stat category.
Weak Points: Dropped game to struggling BYU team, special teams numbers are lacking.
Grade: A. This Aztec team is well beyond expectations and recent history, is well on its way to a bowl game and possibly an 8 win season.
Remaining Games: at Wyoming, Colorado State, at TCU, Utah, UNLV
Best Case: 3-2 for 8 wins and a bowl bid.
Worst Case: 1-4, but still bowl eligible
Prediction: 3-2. Wyoming or CSU could trip them up, but this team looks to be for real and may finish 3rd in the league when all is said and done. I have them projected to stay close to home and face Navy in the Poinsettia bowl, giving them a chance to go 2-0 against service academies this year.
Utah
Record: 7-0, 4-0 Mountain West
Highlights: Beat a ranked Pitt team to open the season, demolished Iowa State on the road, #1 scoring offense in the league (#3 nationally).
Weak Points: Haven’t played a top-half MWC team yet, turnover margin is 97th in the country.
Grade: A. Nothing to complain about from an unbeaten, nearly unchallenged team more than halfway through the season. They do have tougher tests ahead, but Utah could jump into the national title picture if they keep winning.
Remaining Games: at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame, at San Diego State, BYU
Best Case: 5-0 and into a BCS game
Worst Case: 3-2 and still probably off to the Las Vegas Bowl.
Prediction: 4-1. I think TCU has a slight edge, but that will be a monster game. I do think Utah comes home from South Bend with a win.
Busy week for the Belt, with four games Saturday and a national game Tuesday night (which is technically week 10, but who’s counting). The highlight of the weekend should be the Shula Bowl, as FIU continues trying to make up ground toward bowl eligibility.
2:00 PM- Louisiana at Ohio: Louisiana takes it’s struggling operation out of conference to face a rapidly improving Ohio team. Ohio came out of the gate slowly, but is back in the division race, while Louisiana watched Western Kentucky terminate their losing streak on the Cajuns field last week. Line: Ohio by 14.5. If Western Kentucky can do it, Ohio should too. 38-14 for the Bobcats.
3:00 PM- North Texas at Western Kentucky: North Texas comes in with an interim coach, while the Hilltoppers have momentum for the first time as a FBS school. The offense has come to life in recent games, and that should continue Saturday. Line: Western Kentucky by 6. For the first time all year, I’m going to pick WKU to win and cover. 35-27.
3:30 PM, CSS/espn3- Troy at ULM: Troy is now into a stretch of games where they simply have to not screw it up. ULM has beaten weak teams this year, but I don’t see them outgunning Troy, even at home. Line: Troy by 15.5. MTSU is the only team Troy has blown out this year, so I’m not so inclined to jump on that line. I think Troy wins by about 10, 38-28.
4:00 PM- FIU at Florida Atlantic: I’m on the FIU bandwagon, but the reality is that their two wins have come over the worst teams in the Sun Belt. FAU will be a slightly tougher challenge, not to mention the rivalry aspect, but I think the Panthers should edge this one out. Line: FIU by 4.5. I’ll lay the points in this one, I think this one is more like 28-17.
Last week I sputtered to a 1-2 picks record during a dismal 6-10 weekend, my worst yet. I’ll blame it on not picking the western games. This week, summarized:
Ohio -14.5 vs. Louisiana
Western Kentucky -6 vs. North Texas
ULM +15.5 at Troy
FIU -4.5 at Florida Atlantic
Schedulers across the non-BCS universe have done a nice job arranging for back-loaded championship races in all 5 leagues. These are getting lost in the national race, of course, so here’s a look at some games to keep in mind as we steam toward the end of the year. We’ll give it another week or so, and start writing full blown conference championship scenarios, at least for the MAC & C-USA, because the division races keep more teams alive.
Week 9 (10/30)
East Carolina at UCF – both teams come into this one unbeaten in conference play, the latest point in the current era that’s happened in C-USA. Winner takes control of the division, and has the fast track to hosting the championship game.
Northern Illinois at Western Michigan- If Western can pull an upset here, they set up a potential three-way tie atop MAC West. If they don’t, they’ll bow out of the championship race and leave it to NIU and Toledo.
Week 10 (11/5-6)
Week 10 might be the single biggest week of the year for non-BCS football championships.
UCF at Houston (Friday night) – at worst, these two teams will have one conference loss each, and the loser of this one may be nearly eliminated from their division race, while the winner dodges one of the final bullets of the season.
Hawaii at Boise State (Saturday, 2 PM) – there is a very good chance that both teams come into this game unbeaten in WAC play, and Hawaii might have the only offense capable of keeping up with the Broncos.
TCU at Utah (Saturday, 3:30 PM) – right about the time Boise & Hawaii go to halftime, the de facto Mountain West championship game kicks off. Both teams have looked outstanding this year, and it is highly unlikely that either loses before this game.
Week 11 (11/9-13)
Toledo at Northern Illinois (Tuesday 11/9) – Just a few days after the western leagues start falling into place, the unofficial MAC West championship will likely be happening, with both teams unbeaten in league play, assuming NIU gets past WMU as noted above.
Southern Miss at UCF (Saturday 11/13) – UCF’s three week gauntlet comes to an end, and if they survive all 3 then the division and conference championship home game is all but theirs (only Tulane and Memphis lie beyond). If UCF has beaten ECU, then Southern Miss can win and force a three way tie at the top, provided that UCF beats Houston too. This has the potential to get very confusing.
FIU at Troy (Saturday) – Troy’s final test on the road to their 5th conference championship. This might be too early to consider FIU a major contender, but at 2-0 they’re the only other unbeaten team left in Sun Belt play. If not FIU, there’s nobody left to challenge the Trojans.
Week 12 (11/16-20)
Ohio at Temple (Tuesday 11/16) – Most likely, this is your MAC East showdown, although Miami is still hanging around for a game with Temple the next week. Ohio kept Temple out of the league championship game last year, and should get a chance to do it again.
Houston at Southern Miss (Saturday 11/20) – Southern Miss has their own gauntlet to run after the UCF game, and the loser of this game is definitely out of the division race. It’s also possible that both are chasing 2nd or 3rd in the division by this point, all depending on the outcomes beforehand.
Week 13 (11/26-27)
The MAC plays all of their season finales on Friday the 26th (although Temple-Miami is the Tuesday of Thanksgiving week), so it will be up to the division leaders to avoid traps at that point.
SMU at ECU (Friday 11/26) – SMU has an easy path to East Carolina and could arrive in town with a 6-1 conference record. If Houston loses before that point, then SMU is playing to clinch the division. East Carolina’s fate could hang in the balance as well, because if UCF wins their game but stumbles elsewhere, then ECU may have the edge breaking a three-way tie.
Boise State at Nevada (Friday) – Nevada is the last good team to stand in Boise’s way, and if they happen to win this one, they too could set up a 3-way tie, with Hawaii in the mix as well. Boise will be playing to protect a conference lead and secure their third BCS bid.
BYU at Utah (Saturday 11/27) – BYU is certainly having a down year, but they’ve rallied in the past few weeks and may have a chance to do some damage in the latter part of the season. Some say this rivalry is as fierce as any in the southeast, and Utah could be on the brink of a BCS bid of their own, should they survive TCU and Notre Dame in the first part of the month.
Week 14/Championship Week
The MAC Championship will be Friday Night, while the C-USA Championship happens Saturday morning. The WAC has a full slate, including Boise hosting Utah State to finish things off and a few non-conference games. In the Sun Belt, most teams are done for the year, but we do see Middle Tennessee State head to FIU for what could be a game to decide 2nd in the league, or even FIU’s chance at a championship. Troy will be hosting Florida Atlantic.
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