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The Sun Belt refuses to make any sense this year. Just when it looks like FIU might be a team that could unseat Troy, they go out and lose to FAU. The door is flung wide open for Middle Tennessee to thrive in Dwight Dasher’s senior year, suspension and all, but they just want to throw it away too. And the bottom level teams just thrash each other with abandon.
Western Kentucky 36, Arkansas State 35- WKU trailed, rallied, trailed again, then rallied again to force overtime. A-State scored on their first play, but Western matched it and decided to end it all with a 2 point conversion try. They succeeded, and WKU notches their second win of the year. Arkansas State must now beat Navy and FIU to cling to any bowl hopes. Next Week: Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky, Arkansas State at Navy.
North Texas 23, Middle Tennessee State 17- The Mean Green never trailed in this one, jumping out to a 14-0 first quarter lead and setting sail from there. They won’t reach a bowl, and now MTSU must sweep WKU, FAU, and FIU to have a chance. Next Week: Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky, North Texas at ULM
FIU 52, Troy 35- A 27 point second quarter blew the game open for the Panthers, as Troy never got within 10 after that. FIU still has to win 2 of 3 to be bowl eligible, while Troy needs one more win. Next Week: FIU at Louisiana, Troy at South Carolina
Florida Atlantic 24, Louisiana 23- Another game with the seemingly frequent decision to play for the win instead of the tie, and it cost Louisiana this time. A two point conversion attempt failed with less than 2 minutes to go, and FAU recovered the ensuing onside kick to preserve the win and keep bowl hopes alive. Next Week: FIU at Louisiana, Florida Atlantic at Texas
LSU 51, ULM 0- I thought LSU might sleepwalk through this one. I thought wrong. Next Week: North Texas at ULM
Sun Belt Standings
|
Conference |
Overall |
| FIU |
4 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
| Troy |
4 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
| Arkansas State |
4 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
| ULM |
3 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
| Florida Atlantic |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
| North Texas |
3 |
4 |
3 |
7 |
| Middle Tennessee |
2 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
| Western Kentucky |
2 |
4 |
2 |
8 |
| Louisiana |
2 |
4 |
2 |
8 |
Conference Championship Race
Remaining Games noted in parenthesis. This discussion centers around the first place bowl bid in the league, as the league technically honors co-champions, but the guaranteed bowl bid is determined using head-to-head as a tiebreaker. 3 way tie procedures do not appear to be clearly outlined.
There can be no champ at 4-4, because FIU and Arkansas State play each other, guaranteeing a 5 win team. North Texas, Western Kentucky, and Louisiana are eliminated thusly.
FIU (Louisiana, Arkansas State, MTSU) is large and in charge, needing only two positive results to clinch the league, be they wins or Troy losses.
Troy (South Carolina, WKU, FAU) now needs to win out and have FIU lose two of their last three to reclaim the conference title.
Arkansas State (Navy, FIU) needs to beat FIU and have the Panthers lose at least one other, while Troy also loses twice. If Troy loses just once, we may come to a 3 way tie at 5-3, but Arkansas State might have to beat Navy to be considered for the bowl bids, since they’ll be ineligible otherwise.
Middle Tennessee (WKU, FAU, FIU) could still get back in the mix if they win out, but they’ll need Troy to lose their last two league games.
ULM (North Texas, Louisiana) is eliminated, because a best-case scenario would result in a tie with either FIU or A-State, and both teams hold tiebreakers over ULM.
FAU (Texas, MTSU, Troy) is eliminated, because they need FIU to lose twice, but that would involve Arkansas State finishing with 5 wins, and A-State has the tiebreaker over FAU.
4 Way Tie Scenario:
FIU beats Louisiana but loses to Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee for 5-3
A-State beats FIU for 5-3
Troy beats WKU but loses to FAU for 5-3
MTSU beats WKU, FAU, and FIU for 5-3 or FAU beats MTSU and Troy for 5-3.
So…if all that happened, what next? Assuming that the Sun Belt would start breaking the tie by using the records against the four tied teams…
In the FAU beats MTSU scenario, Troy is 1-2, Arkansas State is 2-1, FIU is 1-2, and FAU is 2-1. FAU would then take the head-to-head tiebreaker over Troy and go to the New Orleans Bowl. I assume that Troy would then get the GoDaddy Bowl spot, but that wouldn’t be a guarantee.
In the MTSU beats FAU scenario, Troy is 2-1, A-State is 2-1, FIU is 1-2, and MTSU is 1-2. Troy then wins the head-to-head tiebreaker with Arkansas State and gets the New Orleans Bowl bid. A-State, if eligible, seems like the pick for the GoDaddy bowl at that point.
I think that’s enough of that.
Week 11 Power Rankings
How do you sort a bunch of teams, none of which has won so much as 6 games in 11 weeks? Lots of random slotting, I suppose.
- FIU
- Troy
- FAU
- Arkansas State
- ULM
- North Texas
- Middle Tennessee
- Western Kentucky
- Louisiana
Full breakdowns will follow this week, of course, but we have chaos or near-chaos in every league, so we’ll hit the highlights at the top of each one. For Memphis vs. Marshall info, you’ll have to wait a day.
Sun Belt
Troy lost its second league game and falls to 4-2, while FIU has control of the league now at 4-1 and at least a one game cushion with tiebreakers. Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee both lost, meaning that there are now 5 teams with 3 conference losses, and I have no idea how many possibilities there are if FIU loses two more.
Conference USA
For the 5th time in 5 chances, no C-USA team will go unbeaten in the league as Southern Miss dropped UCF 31-21. UCF still controls the East, with Tulane and Marshall remaining. ECU sits in behind with one loss, and USM still needs help to get back in with two losses.
Out west, Tulsa outgunned Houston to join SMU at 4-2. SMU has the tiebreaker there, but all 3 teams have rough roads to the finish- Houston and Tulsa must both get past Southern Miss, while SMU gets East Carolina in the final week, in what could be a monster game for the conference.
MAC
Kent State lost to Army, which doesn’t impact the standings but puts them on the brink of bowl elimination. CMU nearly beat Navy, and Western Michigan did beat Eastern Michigan in another mostly irrelevant game. Ohio & Temple square off on Tuesday in a much bigger game.
WAC
Boise State took care of its business Friday night, but Nevada and Fresno State played a back & forth game last night with Nevada finishing on top 35-34. With other losses in the Top 25, Nevada could be in position to be well inside the top 20 when they face Boise State in 2 weeks.
Mountain West
TCU had to hold off San Diego State in a wild game that saw the Aztecs blow a 14-0 first quarter lead, the climb back in it with a late touchdown. TCU grabbed the onside kick and survived, but will the close game change their standings? TCU is off next week before closing the season with woeful New Mexico.
This is an idea I should have had, oh, 11 weeks ago for a nice Saturday post. Regardless, here are the games on nationally available TV networks for when you get sick of Cam Newton this and BCS Standings that. Except on the TCU game, I’m sure BCS Standings will be mentioned. All times eastern, rankings are coaches poll.
12:00 PM, CBS College- Southern Miss at #23 UCF – UCF can essentially ice the division with a win.
2:00 PM, The Mtn- BYU at Colorado State – The end of an era, the last known instance of a rivalry that goes back to 1922.
2:30 PM, NBC- # 15 Utah at Notre Dame – Utah’s chance to rebound on a national stage and pile on the Domers.
3:30 PM, CBS College- Central Michigan at Navy – Navy might tee off again on the rebuilding Chips.
4:00 PM, Versus- San Diego State at #3 TCU- SDSU is having a great season, but TCU is on a level all their own in the MWC.
6:00 PM, The Mtn- New Mexico at Air Force - Air Force has come through the Utah-TCU stretch and looking to add wins before bowl time.
7:00 PM, ESPNU- UTEP at #14 Arkansas – It’s UTEP, so anything is possible, if Arkansas is looking ahead or something.
8:00 PM, CBS College- Tulsa at Houston – Might be the battle to determine C-USA West, especially if SMU doesn’t get their act together.
10:00 PM, The Mtn- Wyoming at UNLV – Two teams will play football for about 3 hours.
10:30 PM, ESPN- #21 Nevada at Fresno State – Most likely the battle for 3rd in the WAC this year, only 3 losses between them. Both have Boise soon.
Vegas assigned 3 points to Buffalo as a spread, but it turns out the Bulls would only score 3, as Ball State wins their second in a row and brings Buffalo down into the “terrible” group with Eastern Michigan and Akron. Ball State has only Northern Illinois remaining (next Saturday), then gets an early start to the offseason. Buffalo now has a fascinating pair with the aforementioned terrible teams, EMU and Akron, and could conceivably win out to join Ball State on the 4 win level.
Then out west, things went almost exactly as I predicted. I said 55-14, but Boise State only scored 52. The game was over after 11 minutes when BSU raced out to a 21-0 lead, 28 by the end of the quarter, largely thanks to terrible play from Idaho- two interceptions and a blocked punt are not the way to take down your superpower rival. Tough night for the black & gold, but Boise put on a show for everyone who watched a quarter or two then went to bed, your correspondent included.
The WAC plays all the way through week 14, so both teams have a ways to go. Boise gets Fresno State and Nevada on back-to-back Fridays, both solid teams that should put up at least a little fight. Idaho can get bowl eligible if they win out against Utah State, Fresno, and San Jose State (13 games mean they have to win 7).
Mostly quiet on the Fringe today as it’s off to the stadium for UCF-Southern Miss, but I’ll list off the TV games here in a bit, so you can find your favorite fringe teams on the dial. Assuming you know how to find the Mtn or Versus.
The Mountain West is being totally boring and playing all their games on Saturday. All 9 teams are in action, with Utah heading to South Bend looking for redemption after getting knocked around by TCU last week.
2:00 PM, The Mtn.- BYU at Colorado State: This may be the end of an old rivalry, with the two playing 69 times since 1922. Neither team is having much of a season, although BYU has a chance at reaching a bowl if they can beat CSU and then New Mexico next week (Utah awaits later, and I don’t think the Cougars want their season riding on that game). No doubt the Rams would love to send BYU packing by wrecking their final season in the MWC. Line: BYU by 6.5. BYU has been so up and down this season, that a CSU win would not surprise me at all, and I think they might just be competitive in this one. I’ll take the Rams to keep it close, but BYU edges it out, 31-28.
2:30 PM, NBC- # 15 Utah at Notre Dame: Notre Dame is in the same boat as BYU- 4-5 with a very difficult game (USC) to end the season, although Utah is a much stouter test than CSU would pose. That being said, Utah should be the better team if they don’t a) lose interest or heart after the loss to TCU and b) get swept up in all the Notre Dame mystique nonsense. Line: Utah by 5.5. I am pretty concerned about a Utah letdown, but I think they’ll get through it and claim the win a lot like Tulsa did. 31-24.
4:00 PM, Versus- San Diego State at #3 TCU: San Diego State has had a great season, will play in a bowl game, and could even challenge Utah for second in the league later on. TCU will roll them. Line: TCU by 27.5. Sounds about right. 35-7 TCU, maybe worse.
6:00 PM, The Mtn- New Mexico at Air Force: I suspect that New Mexico will follow in the footsteps of Western Kentucky and Eastern Michigan, after they got their first wins in a long time- by losing, and losing a lot. Line: Air Force by 33. I don’t think the Falcons will be challenged, but I’m not sure they bother running it up that much. I think they win a comfortable 35-10 kind of game.
10:00 PM, The Mtn- Wyoming at UNLV: Two teams on the wrong end of dismal seasons, just playing out the string. I think UNLV is primed for the upset, such as it is. Line: Wyoming by 5. I think UNLV sneaks up on them in a resoundingly uninteresting game. 21-20 UNLV.
Pick Summary:
CSU +6.5 vs. BYU
Utah -5.5 at Notre Dame
TCU -27.5 vs. San Diego State
New Mexico +33 at Air Force
UNLV +5 vs. Wyoming
Boise State plays the first of three straight Friday games tonight, with three other conference tilts tomorrow including a big one featuring two of the league’s top teams.
9:00 PM Friday, ESPN2- #4 Boise State at Idaho: The Kibbie Dome will be loud and generally unpleasant for the Broncos tonight, but unfortunately for Vandal fans, I suspect that Boise State is going to do unspeakable things to the porous Idaho defense. Line: Boise State by 35. Hawaii “held” the Broncos to 42 last week, the lowest score BSU has put up against a non-BCS team. They’ll probably get back on the high side of 50 tonight. Broncos 55, Vandals 14.
6:00 PM Saturday- Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State: With Nevada ahead, 3-6 Louisiana Tech’s bowl hopes are dim, but they’re more than NMSU has, for whatever that’s worth. The Bulldogs should have the better team and keep hopes for a 6-6 year alive. Line: Louisiana Tech by 15.5. This one is going to be ugly no matter how you slice it, but that’s more points than I’m willing to take on a 3-6 team. La Tech 28-14.
8:00 PM- Utah State at San Jose State: Like La Tech, Utah State could still technically become bowl eligible. But they still have Boise on the slate, so let’s be serious. Utah State hasn’t won consecutive games since 2007, they should break the streak against a bad SJSU team. Line: Utah State by 3.5. I’ll take that. Aggies win it 24-17.
10:30 PM, ESPN- #21 Nevada at Fresno State: Finally, another decent game…and it’s on at 10:30 at night. The good news is that on ESPN, they’ll get a decent lead-in and a little promotion throughout the evening. Nevada has the horses to win this one, but Fresno has been quietly racking up wins against bad teams and should be ready for a challenge. Line: Nevada by 8.5. I expected this to be higher so I could say it was too high..but this seems about right. I’ll say Nevada wins it 37-28.
Pick Summary:
Boise State -35 at Idaho
New Mexico State +15.5 vs. Louisiana Tech
Utah State -3.5 at San Jose State
Nevada -8.5 at Fresno State
The MAC gives us some Friday Football tonight (don’t get excited), then three games tomorrow as they spread everybody else out on weeknights this month.
6:00 PM Friday, ESPNU- Ball State at Buffalo: Between the two teams are five wins and 14 losses, such that neither team has any hope of a bowl game. Forgive me if I don’t rush through dinner to catch kickoff. Line: Buffalo by 3 (or, Vegas saying “we don’t care either, let’s just slap 3 on the home team and be done with it). I’ll take that. Buffalo 21 Ball State 17.
2:00 PM Saturday- Army at Kent State: This is actually a really important game for Army. If they win, they punch their ticket to the Armed Forces Bowl (semi-officially, but it’s a lock), but if they lose they have Notre Dame and Navy left and would have to win one of the two. Meanwhile, this is the first of three tough finishing games for the Flashes, and they need to win 2 of 3 against Army, Western Michigan, and Ohio to reach bowl eligibility. Line: Pick’em. I’ll take Army, since they’ve shown at least some propensity to show up when it counts this year, call it 31-27.
2:00 PM- Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan: Western can climb back to 6-6 if they win out against Eastern, Kent State, and Bowling Green. It’s possible, and they should be able to beat their in-state rivals and finish second in MAC Michigan to start the run. Line: Western Michigan by 18.5. Surprised to see the line quite so big, despite EMU’s ineptitude. They’ll hang around for long enough to keep the final score closer, 35-21 Broncos.
3:30 PM, CBS College- Central Michigan at Navy: CMU is already ineligible for a bowl, while Navy has locked up their Poinsettia Bowl spot, so there isn’t much drama here. Navy’s offense has been annihilating people lately, expect that to continue. Line: Navy by 14.5. That extra half scares me a little, but I think it’ll be more than a two touchdown game. Navy cruises, 42-17.
Pick Summary:
Buffalo -3 vs. Ball State
Army (pick’em) over Kent State
Eastern Michigan +18.5 at Western Michigan
Navy -14.5 vs. Central Michigan
UAB let a 35-27 lead get away in the fourth quarter, as ECU put up four scores to run away and hide at the end, winning 54-42. The win keeps ECU alive in the conference title hunt, although the Pirates still need two losses from UCF to vault back into things. Perhaps the best news for ECU is that their beleaguered defense got the job done, allowing UAB only one score in the final quarter while the offense put things away.
ECU improves to 6-4 and is now bowl eligible, with Rice and SMU left on the slate. Meanwhile, the loss eliminates UAB from bowl consideration at 3-7, and may be the final nail for Neil Calloway as head coach. UAB will see Memphis and Rice before hanging up the helmets for the winter.
We have a pair of fringe games tonight- look for brief previews in the MAC & WAC weekend posts coming up shortly.
Conference USA is hurtling toward its championship game, and the East division could be wrapped up by dinnertime Saturday (but probably not). The West is still wide open, as the teams over there have plenty of good games coming up, but one this week could alter the course there too.
8:00 PM Thursday- East Carolina at UAB: UAB has been bizarre lately, pounding UTEP, nearly beating Mississippi State, and edging Southern Miss in overtime, then getting beaten soundly by Marshall last week. Meanwhile, ECU is reeling off a loss to UCF and an embarrassing afternoon against Navy. The Pirates should have the talent advantage here, but are their heads still in the game? Line: UAB by 2. This is a tough one to read, but having seen both teams play in person, I have to think ECU should win this one. I just don’t think that UAB can keep up if and when it turns into a shootout. Pirates take this one 38-27.
12:00 PM Saturday, CBS College- Southern Miss at #23 UCF: USM stands as UCF’s last, and possibly biggest, obstacle to the division championship. UCF has been vulnerable to spread attacks the last few weeks, but hasn’t faced a defense as good as what the Golden Eagles have since entering conference play. An ECU loss tonight paired with a UCF win would clinch the division for the Knights. Line: UCF by 10. My first thought is that 10 seems high, but UCF happens to be 5-0 against the spread in conference play, so I’ll take this one by another big margin, 42-24.
3:00 PM- Memphis at Marshall: Marshall looks to continue a 2 game winning streak that has them alive in the bowl picture, with SMU and Tulane to close out the season. Memphis is just excited that basketball is starting. Line: Marshall by 17. That’s a big number, but Memphis is really bad at football, so I’ll go with it. 34-10 for the Herd.
3:30 PM- Rice at Tulane: Tulane can win this one to stay in the bowl picture for one more week until UCF comes in, while Rice seems to have peaked back when they beat Houston and are now just gliding to the finish. Line: Tulane by 4. Tulane has shown flashes of brilliance this year, and while they were fleeting, they should still be better than Rice. 24-17 Green Wave.
7:00 PM, ESPNU: UTEP at #14 Arkansas: UTEP crossed into bowl eligibility last week, which is good because this one could be rough. They’re just pretty well outgunned in this one. Line: Arkansas by 28.5. That extra half point is the kicker, because I think (just like LSU playing ULM) that Arkansas will coast before they get a lead as big as 28. Razorbacks 35-14.
8:00 PM, CBS College- Tulsa at Houston: CBSC’s second league game of the day will give one team an edge in the west. Tulsa is flying high after beating Notre Dame and Rice as part of a 3 game win streak, while Houston is picking themselves up after a competitive loss to UCF last week. If Tulsa wins, they’ll still need a SMU loss to get to the title game, while Houston still has Southern Miss ahead. Line: Houston by 2. I haven’t seen much of Tulsa lately, but Houston looked a little mistake prone last week in the UCF game. I think Tulsa keeps the momentum up and steals this one, 33-30, but I could definitely be wrong there.
Pick Summary:
ECU + 2 at UAB (Thursday)
UCF +10 vs. Southern Miss
Marshall -17 vs. Memphis
Tulane -4 vs. Rice
UTEP +28.5 at Arkansas
Tulsa +2 at Houston
Week 11? The season is just flying by. This week on the Belt we have teams scrambling to get bowl eligible, and Troy facing one of their last tests on the road to the conference championship. The Sun Belt has two bowl bids available this year- Troy seems on a path for one of them, but who will grab the other? Overall records listed, since that’s what will determine eligibility.
3:00 PM- Western Kentucky (1-8) at Arkansas State (4-5): Arkansas State needs to win this one, because you can pencil in Navy for a loss next week. Western Kentucky can be dangerous, but they’ve seemed flat since they got that first win. Line: Arkansas State by 12. The Red Wolves have been pounding teams lately, and I think they’ll keep that going. 38-14.
3:00 PM- North Texas (2-7) at Middle Tennessee State (3-5): With four games to go, MTSU is still alive in the bowl hunt but has to go 3-1 just to finish 6-6, and they haven’t looked like a team who’s ready to go on a run like that. North Texas has looked much better under their new coach, taking Troy to the limit last week. Line: Middle Tennessee by 10.5. I’m not sold on a line that big, with the Mean Green playing well. MTSU should win, but I’ll say it goes 34-28.
3:30 PM, CSS- FIU (3-5) at Troy (5-3): I’m not nearly as sold on FIU as I was after their 0-4 start, with three competitive games against BCS schools. Troy, meanwhile, has stumbled lately but is still on track to churn out another Sun Belt title. Line: Troy by 9. I think FIU puts up more of a fight than that. Troy wins this one close, 27-24.
7:00 PM- Louisiana (2-7) at Florida Atlantic (3-5): FAU is still alive in the bowl picture, having run off two straight wins over FIU and WKU, unimpressive though those wins might be. Louisiana is playing out the string at this point, after a dismally disappointing season. Line: FAU by 9. Once again, giving too much credit to the better team. Unless Louisiana just checks out, I see FIU winning this more like 28-21.
7:00 PM- ULM (4-5) at LSU (8-1) (yes, that LSU): I can’t find the paycheck figure for ULM on this one, but I’m sure it’s substantial. Line: LSU by 33. I’m going to guess that LSU uses this game to rest players as soon as they get up by a couple touchdowns, and say that ULM covers only because LSU doesn’t feel like running that far. 35-10.
So, to recap, lots of underdog picks this week:
Arkansas State -12 vs. Western Kentucky
North Texas +10.5 at MTSU
FIU +9 at Troy
Louisiana +9 at Florida Atlantic
ULM +33 at LSU
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