Troy (7-5, 6-2) will call themselves [...]]]> The New Orleans Bowl sees Ohio come south to play Troy, who returns to the game after a year away.  The game will be played indoors at the Superdome, which sound a lot better than the weather at the two earlier games today.  Kickoff is at 9 PM Eastern, on ESPN.

Troy

Troy (7-5, 6-2) will call themselves co-champions of the Sun Belt, but the fact is they tied with FIU, who beat them straight up, so the co-champions bit is absurd.  Nonetheless, this was a solid year for the Trojans, who had to replace a ton of players from their (actual) championship team from last year.  Troy was only 1-3 out of conference, but they beat the only MAC team they played, woeful Bowling Green.

Troy gets their work done in the air, #12 nationally in passing yardage.  They’re giving up 31 points per game, although getting wrecked by South Carolina for 69 points has something to do with that average.  On the flipside, even with the USC loss, they haven’t been held under 24 since October.

Ohio

Ohio started 1-3, then ran off 7 straight wins and appeared ready to waltz into the MAC championship game after taking down Temple.  Then, completely inexplicably, they lost to Kent State and finished 2nd in the division behind Miami.  They racked up the wins quietly, but did beat their only Sun Belt foe when Louisiana came to town.

Ohio is a fairly balanced team, but generally a run first orientation.  Each win in their seven game streak saw them score over 30, but in three of their losses they were held to 6, 7, and 13, so there are ways to put the Bobcats off their game.

Prediction

I feel like this should actually be a very competitive football game, and maybe too close to call.  It won’t be what you think Oregon-Auburn is going to be, but it should be a good game nonetheless.  Vegas gives the nod to Troy by 2.5, and I was leaning towards Troy, but I wouldn’t bet big on it.  Troy 30-27.

NIU arrives by way of [...]]]> The Humanitarian Bowl pits 10-3 Northern Illinois against 8-4 Fresno State, tonight at 5:30 Eastern, on ESPN as usual. The teams take to the blue turf in Boise, Idaho, an outdoor field where the weather calls for a near 100% chance of snow and/or rain, with a high of 36 degrees.

Northern Illinois

NIU arrives by way of the MAC Championship game, where they lost to Miami in what has to be seen as a massive upset, following an 8-0 MAC season.  Along the way, they picked up a Big 10 win over Minnesota, joining the parade of teams to accomplish that feat this year.

The Huskies, except for the Miami game, have been near impossible to stop and just as hard to score on, still ranking in the top 20 nationally in both stats.  They haven’t been held under 20 since week 1, and beat the second best team in their division 65-30  a few weeks ago.  If they can bounce back from losing the championship game, they’ll be difficult to beat tonight.

Fresno State

The Bulldogs quietly put together another nice season in the shadows of Boise State and Nevada.  They picked up two BCS conference wins, taking down Cincinnati and Illinois, and went 5-3 in the conference.  They only lost consecutive games once, to the leagues top two teams over six days.

The defense may be a bit suspect, but facing Boise State & Nevada will wreck any defensive stats.  Fresno is giving up 29 points per game, matched with the 30 they’re scoring each week, which has left them in as many close games as you would imagine.

Prediction

On paper, this one should belong to Northern Illinois.  But the tough loss to end the year, Fresno’s familiarity with the blue turf (they were there less than a month ago), and their confidence coming in off two good wins could even the score.  NIU is favored by 1.5, but I think I’m going to predict a win for Fresno State, 34-30.

2:00 PM, The Mtn.- BYU at Colorado State: This may be the end of an old rivalry, with the two [...]]]> The Mountain West is being totally boring and playing all their games on Saturday.  All 9 teams are in action, with Utah heading to South Bend looking for redemption after getting knocked around by TCU last week.

2:00 PM, The Mtn.- BYU at Colorado State: This may be the end of an old rivalry, with the two playing 69 times since 1922.  Neither team is having much of a season, although BYU has a chance at reaching a bowl if they can beat CSU and then New Mexico next week (Utah awaits later, and I don’t think the Cougars want their season riding on that game).  No doubt the Rams would love to send BYU packing by wrecking their final season in the MWC. Line: BYU by 6.5.  BYU has been so up and down this season, that a CSU win would not surprise me at all, and I think they might just be competitive in this one.  I’ll take the Rams to keep it close, but BYU edges it out, 31-28.

2:30 PM, NBC- # 15 Utah at Notre Dame: Notre Dame is in the same boat as BYU- 4-5 with a very difficult game (USC) to end the season, although Utah is a much stouter test than CSU would pose.  That being said, Utah should be the better team if they don’t a) lose interest or heart after the loss to TCU and b) get swept up in all the Notre Dame mystique nonsense.  Line: Utah by 5.5.  I am pretty concerned about a Utah letdown, but I think they’ll get through it and claim the win a lot like Tulsa did.  31-24.

4:00 PM, Versus- San Diego State at #3 TCU: San Diego State has had a great season, will play in a bowl game, and could even challenge Utah for second in the league later on.  TCU will roll them.  Line: TCU by 27.5.  Sounds about right.  35-7 TCU, maybe worse.

6:00 PM, The Mtn- New Mexico at Air Force: I suspect that New Mexico will follow in the footsteps of Western Kentucky and Eastern Michigan, after they got their first wins in a long time- by losing, and losing a lot.  Line: Air Force by 33.  I don’t think the Falcons will be challenged, but I’m not sure they bother running it up that much.  I think they win a comfortable 35-10 kind of game.

10:00 PM, The Mtn- Wyoming at UNLV: Two teams on the wrong end of dismal seasons, just playing out the string.  I think UNLV is primed for the upset, such as it is.  Line: Wyoming by 5.  I think UNLV sneaks up on them in a resoundingly uninteresting game.  21-20 UNLV.

Pick Summary:
CSU +6.5 vs. BYU
Utah -5.5 at Notre Dame
TCU -27.5 vs. San Diego State
New Mexico +33 at Air Force
UNLV +5 vs. Wyoming

9:00 PM Friday, ESPN2- #4 Boise State at Idaho: The Kibbie Dome will be loud and generally unpleasant for the Broncos tonight, but unfortunately for Vandal fans, I suspect [...]]]> Boise State plays the first of three straight Friday games tonight, with three other conference tilts tomorrow including a big one featuring two of the league’s top teams.

9:00 PM Friday, ESPN2- #4 Boise State at Idaho: The Kibbie Dome will be loud and generally unpleasant for the Broncos tonight, but unfortunately for Vandal fans, I suspect that Boise State is going to do unspeakable things to the porous Idaho defense.  Line: Boise State by 35. Hawaii “held” the Broncos to 42 last week, the lowest score BSU has put up against a non-BCS team.  They’ll probably get back on the high side of 50 tonight.  Broncos 55, Vandals 14.

6:00 PM Saturday- Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State: With Nevada ahead, 3-6 Louisiana Tech’s bowl hopes are dim, but they’re more than NMSU has, for whatever that’s worth.  The Bulldogs should have the better team and keep hopes for a 6-6 year alive.  Line: Louisiana Tech by 15.5.  This one is going to be ugly no matter how you slice it, but that’s more points than I’m willing to take on a 3-6 team.  La Tech 28-14.

8:00 PM- Utah State at San Jose State: Like La Tech, Utah State could still technically become bowl eligible.  But they still have Boise on the slate, so let’s be serious. Utah State hasn’t won consecutive games since 2007, they should break the streak against a bad SJSU team. Line: Utah State by 3.5.  I’ll take that.  Aggies win it 24-17.

10:30 PM, ESPN- #21 Nevada at Fresno State: Finally, another decent game…and it’s on at 10:30 at night.  The good news is that on ESPN, they’ll get a decent lead-in and a little promotion throughout the evening.  Nevada has the horses to win this one, but Fresno has been quietly racking up wins against bad teams and should be ready for a challenge.  Line: Nevada by 8.5.  I expected this to be higher so I could say it was too high..but this seems about right.  I’ll say Nevada wins it 37-28.

Pick Summary:
Boise State -35 at Idaho
New Mexico State +15.5 vs. Louisiana Tech
Utah State -3.5 at San Jose State
Nevada -8.5 at Fresno State

6:00 PM Friday, ESPNU- Ball State at Buffalo: Between the two teams are five wins and 14 losses, such that neither team has any hope of a bowl game.  Forgive me if [...]]]> The MAC gives us some Friday Football tonight (don’t get excited), then three games tomorrow as they spread everybody else out on weeknights this month.

6:00 PM Friday, ESPNU- Ball State at Buffalo: Between the two teams are five wins and 14 losses, such that neither team has any hope of a bowl game.  Forgive me if I don’t rush through dinner to catch kickoff.  Line: Buffalo by 3 (or, Vegas saying “we don’t care either, let’s just slap 3 on the home team and be done with it).  I’ll take that. Buffalo 21 Ball State 17.

2:00 PM Saturday- Army at Kent State: This is actually a really important game for Army.  If they win, they punch their ticket to the Armed Forces Bowl (semi-officially, but it’s a lock), but if they lose they have Notre Dame and Navy left and would have to win one of the two.  Meanwhile, this is the first of three tough finishing games for the Flashes, and they need to win 2 of 3 against Army, Western Michigan, and Ohio to reach bowl eligibility.   Line: Pick’em.  I’ll take Army, since they’ve shown at least some propensity to show up when it counts this year, call it 31-27.

2:00 PM- Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan: Western can climb back to 6-6 if they win out against Eastern, Kent State, and Bowling Green.  It’s possible, and they should be able to beat their in-state rivals and finish second in MAC Michigan to start the run. Line: Western Michigan by 18.5.  Surprised to see the line quite so big, despite EMU’s ineptitude.  They’ll hang around for long enough to keep the final score closer, 35-21 Broncos.

3:30 PM, CBS College- Central Michigan at Navy: CMU is already ineligible for a bowl, while Navy has locked up their Poinsettia Bowl spot, so there isn’t much drama here.  Navy’s offense has been annihilating people lately, expect that to continue.  Line: Navy by 14.5.  That extra half scares me a little, but I think it’ll be more than a two touchdown game.  Navy cruises, 42-17.

Pick Summary:
Buffalo -3 vs. Ball State
Army (pick’em) over Kent State
Eastern Michigan +18.5 at Western Michigan
Navy -14.5 vs. Central Michigan

8:00 PM Thursday- East Carolina at UAB: [...]]]> Conference USA is hurtling toward its championship game, and the East division could be wrapped up by dinnertime Saturday (but probably not).  The West is still wide open, as the teams over there have plenty of good games coming up, but one this week could alter the course there too.

8:00 PM Thursday- East Carolina at UAB: UAB has been bizarre lately, pounding UTEP, nearly beating Mississippi State,  and edging Southern Miss in overtime, then getting beaten soundly by Marshall last week.  Meanwhile, ECU is reeling off a loss to UCF and an embarrassing afternoon against Navy.  The Pirates should have the talent advantage here, but are their heads still in the game?  Line: UAB by 2.  This is a tough one to read, but having seen both teams play in person, I have to think ECU should win this one.  I just don’t think that UAB can keep up if and when it turns into a shootout.  Pirates take this one 38-27.

12:00 PM Saturday, CBS College- Southern Miss at #23 UCF: USM stands as UCF’s last, and possibly biggest, obstacle to the division championship.  UCF has been vulnerable to spread attacks the last few weeks, but hasn’t faced a defense as good as what the Golden Eagles have since entering conference play.  An ECU loss tonight paired with a UCF win would clinch the division for the Knights.  Line: UCF by 10.  My first thought is that 10 seems high, but UCF happens to be 5-0 against the spread in conference play, so I’ll take this one by another big margin, 42-24.

3:00 PM- Memphis at Marshall: Marshall looks to continue a 2 game winning streak that has them alive in the bowl picture, with SMU and Tulane to close out the season.  Memphis is just excited that basketball is starting. Line: Marshall by 17.  That’s a big number, but Memphis is really bad at football, so I’ll go with it.  34-10 for the Herd.

3:30 PM- Rice at Tulane: Tulane can win this one to stay in the bowl picture for one more week until UCF comes in, while Rice seems to have peaked back when they beat Houston and are now just gliding to the finish.  Line: Tulane by 4.  Tulane has shown flashes of brilliance this year, and while they were fleeting, they should still be better than Rice.  24-17 Green Wave.

7:00 PM, ESPNU: UTEP at #14 Arkansas: UTEP crossed into bowl eligibility last week, which is good because this one could be rough.  They’re just pretty well outgunned in this one.  Line: Arkansas by 28.5.  That extra half point is the kicker, because I think (just like LSU playing ULM) that Arkansas will coast before they get a lead as big as 28.  Razorbacks 35-14.

8:00 PM, CBS College- Tulsa at Houston: CBSC’s second league game of the day will give one team an edge in the west.  Tulsa is flying high after beating Notre Dame and Rice as part of a 3 game win streak, while Houston is picking themselves up after a competitive loss to UCF last week.  If Tulsa wins, they’ll still need a SMU loss to get to the title game, while Houston still has Southern Miss ahead.  Line: Houston by 2.  I haven’t seen much of Tulsa lately, but Houston looked a little mistake prone last week in the UCF game.  I think Tulsa keeps the momentum up and steals this one, 33-30, but I could definitely be wrong there.

Pick Summary:
ECU + 2 at UAB (Thursday)
UCF +10 vs. Southern Miss
Marshall -17 vs. Memphis
Tulane -4 vs. Rice
UTEP +28.5 at Arkansas
Tulsa +2 at Houston

2:00 PM, The Mtn- San Diego State at Wyoming: The season comes down to this for the Cowboys- find a way to beat SDSU, and they could conceivably win out and find a bowl home at 6-6.  Meanwhile, [...]]]> This is a quieter week in the western leagues, matchup-wise, before the fireworks start next week (TCU-Utah, Hawaii-Boise).

Mountain West

2:00 PM, The Mtn- San Diego State at Wyoming: The season comes down to this for the Cowboys- find a way to beat SDSU, and they could conceivably win out and find a bowl home at 6-6.  Meanwhile, the Aztecs are on the brink of bowl eligibility themselves, but they would rather get that 6th win before facing TCU and Utah.  Line: San Diego State by 10.  Wyoming’s record belies stats that suggest that they’re really a pretty good team, and maybe they finally prove that today.  Not sure they can win, but it’ll be closer than the 10.  SDSU escapes, 31-28.

6:00 PM, The Mtn- New Mexico at Colorado State: The 117th offense in the country heads north to face the 111th, but this isn’t even the worst matchup of the day.  CSU will be looking for some revenge, as they were New Mexico’s only win last year. Line: Colorado State by 16.  Let me just put this out there- if you’re wagering on this game, you have a problem.  CSU by 10, tops, 20-10.

7:30 PM, CBS College- #8 Utah at Air Force: Air Force has trailed off after a great start got them ranked, but they have TCU and Utah in back-to-back weeks, which would be tough for anyone.  Line: Utah by 7.  This should be a good game for a while, but I think Utah will pull away sooner or later.  38-14.

11:00 PM, CBS College- #4 TCU at UNLV: Your insomniac special for the week, but it may not help- TCU should pound the Rebels.  Line: TCU by 35.  I’m going to say that the odd time (10 PM TCU time) and a non-motivating opponent keep this one a little closer, TCU still runs away with it, 35-7.

WAC

4:00 PM- San Jose State at New Mexico State: Ladies and gentlemen, this might be the most unwatchable football game of the year.  The nation’s worst scoring offense (10 points per game) goes to face the second-worst (12 ppg).  You don’t get matchups like this every day.  Line: San Jose State by 3.  Going entirely based on that one statistic, I’m going to take NMSU in the upset, 13-10.

10:30 PM, ESPNU- Utah State at Nevada: Nevada has to wait all day after a 2 week gap since they last played, losing at Hawaii.  Utah State has been woeful since beating BYU, and this is a tough place to try to turn that tide. Line: Nevada by 26.  For my money, Nevada’s defense isn’t good enough to promise an almost four touchdown win.  31-10 for the Pack.

11:30 PM- Idaho at Hawaii: Hawaii is proving to be a tough place to play for WAC teams, especially ones as defensibly questionable as Idaho has been.  An upset is possible, but it might be a long night for the Vandals. Line: Hawaii by 15.  Idaho has surprised me several times this year, but usually by losing.  Hawaii will run away with this one, 42-21.

Pick Summary:
Wyoming +10 vs. San Diego State
New Mexico +16 at Colorado State
Utah -7 at Air Force
UNLV +35 vs. TCU
New Mexico State +3 vs. San Jose State
Utah State +26 at Nevada
Hawaii -15 vs. Idaho

12:00 PM- Northern Illinois at Western Michigan: The marquee game of the week in the MAC, as Western will [...]]]> The MAC has finally reached the end of its loaded Saturday schedules, which is cool because previewing & recapping 7 or 8 MAC games every week gets a little tedious.  Weeknight play begins next Thursday for the league.

12:00 PM- Northern Illinois at Western Michigan: The marquee game of the week in the MAC, as Western will get their chance to beat a MAC team that isn’t mired in the bottom of the standings.  Their pass offense has been on fire lately, but the NIU defense is the real deal.  NIU then goes on to face Toledo, but they can’t get ahead of themselves tomorrow.  Line: NIU by 8.5.  I do think the Huskies should win, but a touchdown seems more appropriate.  NIU will have to score points to do it though, so I’ll say 35-28.

1:00 PM- Akron at Temple: Temple came alive last week when they shut out Buffalo, and the schedule stays easy when Akron comes to town. Line: Temple by 29.5.  I hate lines this big, even with a 42 point win against a better Buffalo team last week, since there’s always the potential for Temple to go up 24 at halftime and coast to the finish.  That being said, I’ll reluctantly assume that they want to keep the momentum up before the schedule clamps down, and call it Temple 41-6.

2:00 PM- Louisiana at Ohio: Louisiana takes it’s struggling operation out of conference to face a rapidly improving Ohio team.  Ohio came out of the gate slowly, but is back in the division race, while Louisiana watched Western Kentucky terminate their losing streak on the Cajuns field last week.  Line: Ohio by 14.5.  If Western Kentucky can do it, Ohio should too.  38-14 for the Bobcats.

3:30 PM- Miami at Buffalo: Miami hasn’t lost two games in a row all season, and I don’t think they’ll start this week, despite Buffalo looking to turn things around after last week’s loss.  Line: Miami by 2.5.  I’ll take that. RedHawks win this one 28-20.

3:30 PM- Bowling Green at Central Michigan: Bowling Green is already ineligible for postseason play, and CMU will be soon.  My guess is that the Chips break the losing streak, but who knows. Line: Central Michigan by 11.5.  That’s a lot of points for two bad teams.  At most, CMU wins by 10, 24-14.

3:30 PM- Ball State at Kent State: Ball State can sneak up on teams that look past them, but ultimately Kent State should have no trouble handling them.  Line: Kent State by 10. Ten is what I would have guessed.  But if I had to lean one way, it’s always against Ball State, so let’s say Kent State wins this one 38-24.

4:00 PM- Toledo at Eastern Michigan: Toledo should have beaten Ball State by three touchdowns, but only managed a 7 point win.  They should win this one, and maybe this is the week they don’t give their opponents a head start, but one of these days their carelessness is going to cost them. Line: Toledo by 11.  Toledo is more than 11 points better than Eastern Michigan, but that doesn’t mean they’ll cover that.  Either way, I’ll stick with them, against my better judgment.  Toledo 31-10.

My picks went 3-4 last week, 6-10 total, reducing the overall record to 93-86-2.  This week, they are summarized as such:
Western Michigan +8.5 vs. Northern Illinois
Temple -29.5 vs. Akron
Ohio -14.5 vs. Louisiana
Miami -2.5 at Buffalo
Bowling Green +11.5 at Central Michigan
Kent State -10 vs. Ball State
Toledo -11 at Eastern Michigan