Football on the Fringe » Previews

Monday Football Preview

lowercase — Mon, 06 Sep 2010 14:00:23 +0000

Two big games today- one you’re no doubt familiar with, and the other you might not have noticed yet. It’s labor day, you don’t want to spend it reading a long header, so here we go.

4:00 PM, ESPN- Navy vs. Maryland (M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore): Navy is a team poised to make a splash nationally. They run the triple option which has proven very difficult for teams to stop- Navy nearly beat Ohio State in the first week last year. Ricky Dobbs is poised to make his way into the national consciousness, as an option quarterback who can throw pretty well when he has to. Maryland’s offense is a bit suspect too, so they may have their hands full on both sides today. Line: Navy by 6. That seems pretty fair, but I think Navy’s defense will get a chance to shine. I say 23-13.

8:00 PM, ESPN- Boise State vs. Virginia Tech (FedEx Field, Washington): This one has been written about and talked about endlessly, and for good reason- the winner, particularly if it’s Boise State, has a much cleaner run at an undefeated season. Kellen Moore is back for the broncos with a couple dozen of his closest friends, and the pressure of a big game hasn’t swayed them much before. The Broncos haven’t lost a regular season game since 2007, but they haven’t played one quite like this- thousands of miles from home in a sweltering stadium with fans that will probably be remarkably unfriendly. If they can overcome the logistic and psychological obstacles, I do think they have the talent to beat Virginia Tech. For more analysis, try anywhere with a website or microphone. Line:Vegas has it Boise State by 1. I said I think Boise has the guns to win this one, and I think they will and they’ll want to do it in dramatic fashion. Boise State 28-17.

Weekend Preview: Mountain West

lowercase — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 18:00:26 +0000

Finally we come to the end of a stacked list of weekend previews. Whether intentionally or because of crappy tv deals, 8 of the 9 MWC teams play on Saturday (Utah was last night, obviously). We have a mix of games where MWC teams should dominate, competitive games, and at least one that probably will not go well.

2:00 PM, the Mtn- Colorado “at” Colorado State (Denver): CSU did beat Colorado on their turf last year, but that turned out to be a) a fluke and b) against a CU team that was awful for the first half of the year. Of course, history suggests that Colorado probably won’t get any better until Dan Hawkins exits the building, so who knows how this one will go. Line: Colorado by 12. That’s way too many, even if CSU did collapse down the stretch last year. Colorado probably does win, on the order of 24-17, but don’t be surprised if CSU pulls the upset again.

2:00 PM- Northwestern State at Air Force: Northwestern State went 0-11 last year. Air Force should be able to name the score. It will probably be a lot. No line.

3:30 PM- New Mexico at #11 Oregon: New Mexico is a bad football team. Oregon should be a good football team. What more analysis do you want? Line: Oregon by 34. Hard to say for sure what Oregon will do against an overmatched opponent- last year their only non-BCS opponents were Boise State & Utah. They did beat Cal by 39 and Washington State by 46, but that was a little later on in the season too. Still, I think they should roll through this one, 52-3.

7:00 PM, CBS College- Washington at BYU: This is a quality game for BYU, even though it’s not getting as much national attention as a couple other games are. Jake Locker comes to Provo looking to start a Heisman campaign, while on the other side the Cougars are looking to establish a new starting quarterback and address some other openings. Line: BYU by 2.5. This line surprises me, but I gather that Washington doesn’t have the oddsmakers convinced yet. Neither team has me convinced, but I hesitatingly like the mild upset, Washington 31-20.

7:45 PM, ESPN- #22 Oregon State at #7 TCU (Cowboy Stadium): This is the big one for Saturday, the second of the three BCS vs. non-BCS games where both teams are in one or both polls. TCU comes back loaded and will be right in the thick of the championship chase, while Oregon State heads into the season with a sophomore QB making his first start. Line: TCU by 13. That seems like a lot to me, although TCU’s offense could break the game wide open. I’ll cautiously say TCU wins 34-24.

8:00 PM- Nicholls State at San Diego State: Last year Nicholls State lost to Air Force 72-0 on week one and went 3-8 overall. SDSU may not hang 72, but they should still win comfortably. No line.

9:00 PM- Southern Utah at Wyoming: Southern Utah went 5-6 a year ago, losing to Utah State and SDSU along the way. Wyoming should handle the Thunderbirds easily. No line.

11:00 PM, Versus- #12 Wisconsin at UNLV: UNLV has been improving in recent years, but are replacing a coach this season and look like they’re probably outmatched by the Badgers. Line: Wisconsin by 20.5. This is the first of four games before they get to Big 10 play, so I’m just not sure that they’ll leave the starters in long enough to ring up that many points. I think they’ll be happy to leave a long road trip with a win in the neighborhood of 35-21.

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Friday Night Football Preview

lowercase — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 16:30:38 +0000

We interrupt our weekend previews to take a look at tonight’s games. We’ll have more in-depth looks at these weeknight games as the season unfolds, especially when they’re conference games that actually mean something. Anyway..

5:00 PM- Villanova (FCS) at Temple: Villanova won the FCS championship (you know, in a playoff) last year, a season that included beating Temple in the first week. Temple really should still be better, considering they’re among the favorites in the MAC, but Villanova is no Southeastern Louisiana. No line.

8:00 PM- Arizona at Toledo: Arizona is quietly getting some buzz as a contender in the Pac-10, but Toledo is working to get a new QB up and running in an offense that could run with anybody last year. Meanwhile Arizona has most of their pieces coming back from a pretty good 8-5 team last year. Line: Arizona by 16. This is a line where you go “hmm, that sounds about right” and no obvious choice seems to pop out. But since I’m not sure Toledo’s offense can pick up where it left off last year, I think Arizona wins this one 34-14.

That’s it, just two games. We’ll be previewing the weekend out west this afternoon.

Weekend Preview: WAC

lowercase — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:25:55 +0000

The weekend is light for the WAC, with three teams playing last night, one off, and the last playing on Monday. Pity our friends in New Mexico who have to sit this week out.

7:00 PM- Utah State at #8 Oklahoma: Fitting, perhaps, that we move from Sun Belt blowouts on to this game. I think Utah State should be an improved team this year, but kicking it off at Oklahoma is not a great way to get the ball rolling. Line: Oklahoma by 33. Last year Oklahoma posted wins of 64, 45, and 55 points when the opportunities presented themselves, so 33 is certainly within range. Let’s say 48-7.

7:00 PM- San Jose State at #1 Alabama: SJSU is not going be as good as Utah State, and while I’m not so sure about Alabama as #1, this game will never be in doubt. Line: Alabama by 38. Again, we look to last year to see what kind of restraint Saban might use. Non-BCS wins of 26, 46, and 45 (FCS). Yeah, I’d say he’ll be more than happy to push the margin close to 50. 56-7.

7:00 PM- Louisiana Tech at Grambling State (FCS) (Neutral Site): Grambling went 8-5 last year. This game is in the warning zone for an FCS upset- La Tech is coming in with a new coach and wasn’t especially good last year anyway. No line.

10:00 PM, ESPN2- Cincinnati at Fresno State: This might be a good one. Fresno loses Ryan Matthews to the NFL but returns a lot of talented players otherwise, and Cincy too is rebuilding a bit after Brian Kelly left for Notre Dame. Line: Fresno is favored by 2.5. Before I looked that up, I thought I was going to pick the Bulldogs in an upset, but apparently not. Still, I think they win it 31-28.

Weekend Preview: Sun Belt

lowercase — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:00:12 +0000

The Sun Belt got an upset last night, although not the one they might have preferred. They’ll have a lot more opportunities this weekend, but I don’t have a good feeling about any of them. Also, I said I’d put Navy & Army here when they don’t play Fringe schools, but Navy plays on Monday so I’ll get them then.

12:21 PM, SEC Network- Louisiana at #21 Georgia: The Rajin’ Cajuns could make a game of this one for a while, but these games against the SEC always come down to depth, and most non-BCS teams just don’t have enough. Line: Georgia by 28. Seems high to me, Georgia should win comfortably but not by that much. Probably something like 38-17.

3:30 PM, ESPNU- North Texas at Clemson: North Texas may have drawn the least fearsome of the Sun Belt’s BCS opponents Saturday, but they’re also not known to be very good. Hide your eyes, Mean Green fans. Line: Clemson by 26.5. The Tigers did blow out their one FCS opponent last year, but was kept close by MTSU in their only other non-BCS game. Even so, North Texas is not MTSU, Clemson 42-7.

7:00 PM, Fox Sports South/espn3- Arkansas State at #23 Auburn: A-State is a bit of an enigma, as they have some talent coming back, but they weren’t particularly good last year anyway. Auburn is obviously a much more talented team and should have little trouble here. Line: Auburn by 31. Auburn didn’t beat anybody in FBS by that much last year, which suggests that Gene Chizik doesn’t see the point. Expect the Tigers to coast through the second half, call it 35-10.

7:00 PM- Western Kentucky at Nebraska: Have I mentioned how awful Nebraska’s OOC scheduling is lately? It’s a joke. Anyway, this one could be really, really bad. Line: Nebraska by 38.5. Nebraska beat Sun Belt teams by 46, 29, and 55 last year, so clearly they have no shame in running up the score. This one will be something like 56-0. Sorry Hilltoppers.

7:00 PM- Bowling Green at Troy: I’m really ready to get some football played so I can stop writing about how we don’t know what we’re going to see from what team, etc. Because we don’t know what we’re going to see from either one of these teams. Both are completely restocking their teams. Line: Troy by 14, a ton of points for a nearly-new team, even if the other guys are too. I agree that Troy should win (although they didn’t last year), but it won’t be by 14. Troy 24-17.

Weekend Preview: Conference USA

lowercase — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 13:30:07 +0000

We continue working our way across the country looking at games lined up for Saturday & Sunday. CUSA got off to a bad start Thursday night and will be looking to get things stabilized over the weekend. There are a bunch of FCS games lined up, but also a couple more games that could get ugly. All games are on Saturday except the last two, all times eastern, you get the picture by now.

3:30 PM, ESPN- #4 Texas at Rice (Reliant Stadium): Look out, this could get ugly. Rice should be better than last year’s 2-10 team, but this won’t be the time or place to figure out if they are or not. Line: Texas by 30.5. The question with lines like this one is not ‘can’ Texas win by that much, but ‘will they?’ Looking to last year, they won their first two games by 39 and 31, then won their other two C-USA games by 32 and 57. So yes, I’d say Texas will probably cover that line, let’s say 49-10. And that’s way more than I planned to write on this game.

6:00 PM- South Dakota (FCS) at UCF: The South Dakota Coyotes went 5-5 last year. UCF should win by a bundle but probably won’t because O’Leary tends to let off the gas in these FCS games…before they start. No Vegas line, and by god don’t mess with this game if you do find a line somewhere, I’m warning you.

7:00 PM, ESPNU- Memphis at Mississippi State: This one, too, could be ugly. New coach, not much in the way of talent. They may not be as far behind the rest of CUSA East as I once thought, but Memphis isn’t going to compete against the SEC this year. Line: Mississippi State by 21.5. I don’t like that number much- Miss State didn’t blow out many opponents last year. 3 touchdowns seems about right, but it could be two or it could be four, I’d rather stay away, but I’m going to say 30-7 Mississippi State.

8:00 PM- Texas State at Houston: The Texas State Bobcats went 7-4 last year. Texas State won’t win, but can Houston’s D stop anybody? Let’s find out. No line.

9:05 PM- Arkansas Pine Bluff at UTEP: The Pine Bluff Lions went 5-5 last year. UTEP wants to surge this season, they start by beating a FCS team convincingly. No line.

SUNDAY GAMES

2:00 PM, ESPN2- Tulsa at East Carolina: Unless I missed something (always possible), this is the only conference game in the country this weekend. Tulsa is looking to get back to the top after a down season last year, while ECU might be looking at their down season in the face- new coach, depleted roster, etc. Line: Tulsa by 7.5. I do think Tulsa will win, but I think it will be closer than that. Something along the lines of 28-24. ECU’s just too good at home to give them a full touchdown.

3:30 PM, ESPN- SMU at Texas Tech: Texas Tech has a new coach and new system coming in after a tumultuous offense, and SMU brings back some good players from last year’s Hawaii Bowl team, but I’m not sure those factors are enough to bridge the gap. I think the Mustangs will be competitive, but not sure they can keep up the whole way. Line: Texas Tech by 13.5. Tough one to predict, but I’ll say Tech 42-31

Weekend Preview: MAC (and Army*)

lowercase — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 19:00:19 +0000

Weekend previews will appear in this space on Thursdays and Fridays, to look at the games happening on Saturday and some Sundays. Of course, weeknight games will get special attention, with posts of their own.

Last year, the Mid American Conference had an abysmal opening week. This one should be better, with a ton of FCS games and even some upset potential in the bigger games. We hit the Ball State, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Kent State and Northern Illinois games from tonight in our earlier posts, and we’ll give Toledo & Temple a once-over tomorrow. For now, let’s see what the weekend holds for the rest of the MAC. All games are Saturday, all times Eastern, all rankings USA Today, and lines are from Vegas.com and subject to change before kickoff.

*When Army & Navy play a non-BCS team, we’ll just lump them in with their opponents. When they play against the BCS, I’ll probably include them with the Sun Belt, since they have only 9 teams and are generally in the East.

12:00 PM, ESPN- Miami at #3 Florida: Obviously, this is not a game that many people have the RedHawks penciled in to win. Keeping it close to halftime will be an accomplishment, but after that it’s tough to compete against the depth of an elite program, especially in the 2 PM Florida heat. Line: Gators by 36.5. That’s a lot of points for a team that’s going to probably lead early and get some young players on the field. I’d take Miami plus more than five touchdowns.

12:00 PM, ESPN2- Western Michigan at Michigan State: These games can be funny sometimes, but again, WMU is likely overmatched in this one. Line: Michigan State by 23.5. That’s probably low enough for Sparty to cover, especially since we don’t know what kind of Bronco team will show up.

6:00 PM, espn3 only- Syracuse at Akron: This game has the makings of a fantastically ugly afternoon of football. Neither team has been very good lately. Line: Syracuse by 8.5. I’ve heard people call for the Akron upset, but Syracuse winning by 10 seems a lot more likely. I think I’d take the Orange there.

7:00 PM- Wofford (FCS) at Ohio: The Wofford Terriers were 3-8 last year. Ohio should win. No line.

7:00 PM- Army* at Eastern Michigan: Eastern Michigan has been one of the worst teams in America lately, and Army looks like they’re pretty good this year. Army’s run at a bowl game probably starts here Saturday. Line: Army by 9.5. Until we see otherwise this year, I’ll happily give Eastern Michigan less than 10.

7:00 PM- Bowling Green at Troy: Troy is the big question mark in this game. They’re depleted, but they also tend to have the best talent in the Sun Belt regardless. I think Troy is properly the favorite, but Bowling Green beat a better Troy squad last year at this time. Line: Troy by 14. Way too many. I think Troy wins by 7-10 tops.

And with more than half the league being done playing before the sun comes up on Saturday, that’s it.

Thursday Football Preview, Part 2

lowercase — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 17:00:03 +0000

We’re halfway through looking at just one night worth of football, and we have 14 weeks of this goodness. Ahh, feels nice, right? Ok, back to your previews. Once again, all times eastern, lines from Vegas.com, and rankings are from the coaches poll.

8:00 PM- Florida Atlantic at UAB: This is the only game of the night featuring two non-BCS opponents going at it. Both teams have question marks, with UAB trying to replace QB Joe Webb, and FAU replacing just about everything but the quarterback. UAB should have a substantial edge here, but these types of games are hard to read in week 1. Line: UAB by 14. That seems generous- for FAU. UAB won the same game last year by 27, and I think they might do it again.

8:00 PM, Regional TV- Northern Illinois at Iowa State: NIU is hoping that this game is the coming out party for a big 2010 season. They’re stacked and the favorite to win the MAC, but ISU won’t be a pushover game just because they aren’t a national power. That said, if the Cyclones are looking ahead to Iowa, they could find themselves in trouble. Line: Iowa State by 4.5. I like NIU’s chances of winning this game a lot. I like their chances of keeping within four even more, I’d take NIU plus the points.

8:00 PM- Southeastern Louisiana (FCS) at Tulane: The SE Louisiana Lions went 6-5 in 2009. Tulane better win this one, because they’re not going to get much of a chance against Ole Miss, Houston, or Rutgers. Or many other teams after that. No line.

8:30 PM, Versus: #15 Pittsburgh at #24 Utah: Game of the Night, to be sure. TCU and Boise State are getting all the attention, but Utah has a clear path to the top as well, and it starts tonight. Dave Wannstedt’s propensity to lose important games appears to have waned some, so this certainly won’t be a walkoff for the Utes. Line: Utah by 3. Seems about right- I do think Utah can and should win tonight, but it will probably be close.

9:00 PM: North Dakota at Idaho: The North Dakota Fighting Sioux went 6-5 a year ago. Fighting Sioux? Yes. But only for a little while- the nickname will be retired after this school year. Oh, and Idaho should win this one. No line.

9:05 PM: Eastern Washington at Nevada: The Eastern Washington Eagles went 8-4 last year. Still, Nevada should hang half a hundred on them by the third quarter. No line.

11:00 PM, ESPN: Southern Cal at Hawaii: Hawaii’s going to have their hands full tonight, trying to replace a bunch of players while taking on the Kiffinized Trojans. Of course, there’s no telling what Kiffin (lifetime head coaching record 12-21) will do exactly with USC. But they should beat Hawaii on raw talent alone. Line: USC by 21. I wouldn’t touch it with a ten foot pole. I’m hearing people think USC is a lock there, but Hawaii is capable of scoring a few of their own, and can a first-week coach be counted on to put up 40? Who knows.

So that’s it- you are now ready for opening night. Next up, we’ll start looking at what each conference is up to over the weekend. We’ll recap tonight’s games tomorrow morning and break down the Friday night pair of games tomorrow too. Cheers.

Thursday Football Preview, Part 1

lowercase — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 15:00:59 +0000

There are so many games going on tonight that it’s going to take at least two posts. It’s a beautiful thing. Happy College Football Day, everyone. We’ll go vaguely from east to west on this thing. My plan for this year is to offer a little more opinion on potential outcomes, for better or for worse. All times Eastern, lines courtesy of Vegas.com. Let’s go.

7:00 PM – Southeast Missouri State (FCS) at Ball State: The SE Missouri Redhawks went 2-9 last year. That is the extent of my knowledge of Ball State’s opponents. The Ball State Cardinals might be a decent team this year and should win easily. No line.

7:00 PM – Rhode Island (FCS) at Buffalo: The Rhode Island Rams went 1-10 last year, and that is all I know about Buffalo’s guests. Once again, they should be no match for Buffalo, new coach and all. No line.

7:00 PM – Hampton (FCS) at Central Michigan: As you have probably figured out, there won’t be much time spent researching these 1-AA opponents. The Hampton Pirates were 5-6 last year, and again should not stand in the Chippewas way. As usual for FCS games, no line. If you find one offshore, just stay away, Vegas dodges them for a reason.

7:00 PM – Murray State (FCS) at Kent State: The Murray State Racers went 3-8 last year. I could have just copy/pasted these first four, huh? Kent State better not lose. No line.

Now, on to the good stuff.

7:30 PM, Big Ten Network- Marshall at #2 Ohio State: Finally, a proper FBS matchup. In which Marshall is probably going to get stomped. Marshall has a new coach and replaces RB Darius Marshall, who left for the draft but is presently unemployed. They bring back a lot of starters otherwise, but I read somewhere that Ohio State is pretty good. Line: Ohio State by 28. At a glance that seems high, but last year Ohio State won four times by 30+, so Tressel’s not so conservative when he can crush somebody. This probably goes something like 42-7.

7:30 PM, ESPNU- Minnesota at Middle Tennessee State: I was a lot more optimistic about this game before Dwight Dasher got himself ruled ineligible. The Blue Raiders still have a lot of talent on the team, but they’re led by a pair of JuCo quarterbacks who haven’t stepped onto a 1-A field yet. MTSU is going to need a near-perfect game to shut down the Golden Gophers. Line: Minnesota by 1.5 to 2.5. I don’t like it- I don’t think this one will be that close- either MTSU is going to stink up the joint or they’ll win by a touchdown. I have no idea which one. If I were to make a wager, it’d probably be Middle Tennessee straight up for a small amount.

7:30 PM, ESPN- Southern Miss at South Carolina: Steve Spurrier must love these opening night engagements with Conference USA, and ESPN and the rest of us do too. South Carolina should win, but they have an opponent that can play and could give them a challenge if the Gamecocks sputter. Southern Miss should be particularly stout on defense, with a talented front seven back, but they have experience at QB and really should keep this game close. Line: South Carolina by 14. I think that’s too much, USM keeps it within 10.

Part 2 coming soon, and maybe some other stuff later in the day. Football!

The Fringe is Back: Because Nothing Says Building a Brand Like An Unannounced 6 Month Break

lowercase — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 14:00:40 +0000

Yes indeed, after doing nothing all summer long, what with coaching changes and massive conference realignment to keep an eye on, Football on the Fringe is back with a Bowling Green season preview! But seriously, after taking the extended break and thinking it over, I’m excited about doing this again for the new season.

We are starting back with, hopefully, previews of all 54 non-BCS conference schools. If you’re new to these parts, we define non-BCS as the conferences who a) do not have an automatic bid to the BCS games and b) share, between the 5, 9% of the BCS revenue pool. If you ask the conference PR people, they will tell you that all the conferences are BCS conferences, but if you ask the conference accountants, I bet you they’ll disagree. Notre Dame is not covered here because they have a direct path to a BCS game and their own share of the BCS cash, and because nobody reading this site could possibly care about Notre Dame.

I have done a very quick pre-pre-season ranking of all 54 teams, then shuffled them randomly and will begin the season previews very shortly. The previews will try to cover the offseason news of import, big games for the team, the usual stuff. Then, by the time I’ve done the research to bring you 54 previews, we should all be ready for better conference previews, predictions, and the return of my Non-BCS Top 25 (Spoiler Alert: Boise State will be #1), which will in all likelihood be different than the 54 team ranking I did to start the previews.

So thanks for stopping back by. Stick around, and you’ll be eminently prepared for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday night football, plus you might just know which spreads are out of control in those early-week David vs. Goliath games.