Football on the Fringe » Mid Season Report Card

WAC Mid-Season Report Cards, Part II

lowercase — Fri, 29 Oct 2010 17:48:31 +0000

At long last, the final four teams that I haven’t attached an arbitrary grade to. Here are Boise State, Fresno State, Idaho, and New Mexico State.

Boise State

Record: 7-0, 3-0 WAC
Highlights: Wins against Virginia Tech and Oregon State, #1 in total defense nationally, leading conference in a great many stat categories.
Weak Points: The schedule, also net punting is last in the WAC.
Grade: A. Nothing to find fault with. Boise State hasn’t lost now in a season and a half and hasn’t shown any signs that they’re going to this year.
Remaining Games: Hawaii, at Idaho, Fresno State, at Nevada, Utah State
Best Case: 5-0 and jumping into the national championship game.
Worst Case: 4-1 and off to San Francisco for the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Prediction:5-0, but probably left out of the national championship yet again, facing an above-average Big 12 team in the Rose Bowl.

Fresno State

Record: 5-2, 3-1 WAC
Highlights: Season opening win over Cincinnati, lead the WAC in sacks
Weak Points: Defensive collapses allowing 55 and 49 points in two losses, mid-pack at best in all the major stat categories.
Grade: B. The loss to Hawaii was a bit surprising at the time, but Hawaii has proven to be a very strong team. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is having a down year, but any win over a BCS school is a boost to a conference that needs credibility this year.
Remaining Games: At Louisiana Tech, Nevada, at Boise State, Idaho, Illinois
Best Case: 4-1 to finish 3rd in the league and head for a good bowl.
Worst Case: 1-4, which isn’t unthinkable given a quality lineup toward the end of the year.
Prediction: 3-2, which may relegate the Bulldogs to 4th in the league, and may mean a return trip to Boise, this time for the Humanitarian Bowl.

Idaho

Record: 4-3, 1-1 WAC
Highlights: 20+ point wins over UNLV and a decent Western Michigan team, #3 in the WAC for scoring defense, #2 passing offense behind only Hawaii.
Weak Points: Surprising losses to Colorado State and Louisiana Tech mean this team perhaps should be 6-1, almost no running game to be found, 118th in the country allowing sacks.
Grade: C+. If you had told me Idaho would be 4-3, I probably would have guessed they beat CSU and lost to WMU, but otherwise Idaho is playing like an above average, but far from stellar, football team.
Remaining Games: at Hawaii, Nevada, Boise State, at Utah State, at Fresno State, San Jose State
Best Case: 3-3. This is a brutal schedule for Idaho, and they have to find 3 wins to get to a bowl this year.
Worst Case: 1-5. Idaho may not be favored in any but the last game, although they shouldn’t finish this poorly.
Prediction:3-3. I think the Vandals could pull an upset against one of Hawaii, Nevada, or Fresno State and make it into a bowl again.

New Mexico State

Record: 1-6, 0-3 WAC
Highlights: Beat rival New Mexico. Lead the league, 5th in the country, in kickoff returns.
Weak Points: Outscored 254-71 in six losses, 119th in scoring offense, ranked below 100 in most categories.
Grade: F. Despite beating New Mexico, the Aggies are one of the worst teams in America, no matter how you slice it.
Remaining Games: San Jose State, at Utah State, Louisiana Tech, at Nevada, Hawaii
Best Case: 2-3. Their next two games are against other teams that range from very bad to capable-of-being-very-bad.
Worst Case: 0-5, which is almost certain if they lose to SJSU.
Prediction: 1-4. NMSU is 119th in scoring offense. #120? San Jose State.

Mountain West Mid-Season Report Cards, Part II

lowercase — Thu, 28 Oct 2010 17:00:34 +0000

The end is near on these silly report cards- just six teams left in the two western leagues. And most of them are pretty good teams- coming up with new ways to talk about 1 and 2 win teams gets tiresome after a while. Here’s San Diego State and Utah.

San Diego State

Record: 5-2, 2-1 Mountain West
Highlights: Beat a ranked Air Force team at home, lost to (still unbeaten) Missouri in the final seconds, top 3 in the league in nearly every stat category.
Weak Points: Dropped game to struggling BYU team, special teams numbers are lacking.
Grade: A. This Aztec team is well beyond expectations and recent history, is well on its way to a bowl game and possibly an 8 win season.
Remaining Games: at Wyoming, Colorado State, at TCU, Utah, UNLV
Best Case: 3-2 for 8 wins and a bowl bid.
Worst Case: 1-4, but still bowl eligible
Prediction: 3-2. Wyoming or CSU could trip them up, but this team looks to be for real and may finish 3rd in the league when all is said and done. I have them projected to stay close to home and face Navy in the Poinsettia bowl, giving them a chance to go 2-0 against service academies this year.

Utah

Record: 7-0, 4-0 Mountain West
Highlights: Beat a ranked Pitt team to open the season, demolished Iowa State on the road, #1 scoring offense in the league (#3 nationally).
Weak Points: Haven’t played a top-half MWC team yet, turnover margin is 97th in the country.
Grade: A. Nothing to complain about from an unbeaten, nearly unchallenged team more than halfway through the season. They do have tougher tests ahead, but Utah could jump into the national title picture if they keep winning.
Remaining Games: at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame, at San Diego State, BYU
Best Case: 5-0 and into a BCS game
Worst Case: 3-2 and still probably off to the Las Vegas Bowl.
Prediction: 4-1. I think TCU has a slight edge, but that will be a monster game. I do think Utah comes home from South Bend with a win.

C-USA Mid-Season Report Cards, Part II

lowercase — Wed, 27 Oct 2010 16:49:40 +0000

Unlike the MAC, plenty of C-USA teams enjoyed bye weeks in the early going, meaning it took a bit longer to cross the halfway point. Then I didn’t write anything last week, so now most of them have 7 games in the books, but that’s close enough. Time to catch up with East Carolina, Houston, Marshall, Memphis, Tulane, UAB, and UCF.

East Carolina

Record: 5-2, 3-0 Conference USA
Highlights: Overtime win over NC State, Hail Mary win over Tulsa, #1 pass offense in a pass-happy league, #3 total & scoring offense.
Weak Points: Second half collapses against Virginia Tech and UNC, 10th in the league in pass and total defense.
Grade: A-. Other than two bad halves, ECU has been outstanding this year, vastly outperforming expectations. The defense is still suspect, but so far the offense has been good enough to escape any close games in the league.
Remaining Games: at UCF, Navy, at UAB, at Rice, SMU
Best Case: 5-0, into the top 25, conference title and another Liberty Bowl berth.
Worst Case: 2-3. With 3 quality opponents left, if someone solves the offensive attack, ECU could be in trouble.
Prediction: 3-2. I’ll be predicting a UCF win this weekend, and suspect that ECU will split between Navy and SMU. 8-4 on the season, and right now I have them projected to play Clemson in the Eaglebank Bowl in DC.

Houston

Record: 4-3, 1-1 C-USA
Highlights: 25 point win over league leading SMU, #1 scoring offense in C-USA, 9th nationally
Weak Points: loss to cross-town rival Rice, disappointing results against BCS teams, worst rushing defense in the league.
Grade: B-. This has been a roller coaster year for Houston, who lost their first and second quarterbacks in one game during week 3. Things looked bleak after the Rice loss, but the SMU win suggests that Houston isn’t done yet.
Remaining Games: at Memphis, UCF, Tulsa, at Southern Miss, at Texas Tech
Best Case: 3-2. Houston would have a tough time getting more than one win against UCF, USM, and Tech.
Worst Case: 1-4 and out of the postseason.
Prediction: 2-3 for a 6-6 finish. I think UCF & USM have too much on the ground for Houston to slow down, and there’s at least one more loss between Texas Tech and Tulsa.

Marshall

Record: 1-6, 0-3 C-USA
Highlights: Beat Ohio again in 2009 bowl rematch, took West Virginia to overtime, leading the conference and #2 in America in sacks allowed.
Weak Points: Offense is dismal across the board, Defense in the bottom quarter of the league, 5 of 6 losses by double digits.
Grade: D-. Marshall has had a tough schedule, but that doesn’t excuse just how bad they’ve been. Doc Holliday is going to have to turn this around sooner than later, as the fanbase in Huntington won’t want him to struggle as long as his predecessor did.
Remaining Games: UTEP, at UAB, Memphis, at SMU, Tulane
Best Case: 4-1. Marshall has seen 3 of the best teams in the league so far, now they get to see some of the bottom half.
Worst Case: 1-4. I can’t see any way that Marshall loses all of those games, but it could be rough.
Prediction: 2-3 for a 3-9 season. Marshall should be better than Memphis, and they’ll find at least one more win in there somewhere.

Memphis

Record: 1-6, 0-4 C-USA
Highlights: Win over rival Middle Tennessee, #3 in net punting
Weak Points: Everything else. Total offense, scoring offense, scoring defense, total defense all dead last in C-USA.
Grade: F. I know they have the same record as Marshall, who got a D-, but Memphis has achieved a whole new level of ineptitude so far this season.
Remaining Games: Houston, Tennessee, at Marshall, at UAB, UCF
Best Case: 1-4. Only two games on the schedule are against teams that have struggled this year (at the C-USA level).
Worst Case: 0-5 for a 1-11 season- tough start for the new coach.
Prediction: 0-5. I think both Marshall and UAB are superior teams to Memphis right now.

Tulane

Record: 3-4, 1-2 C-USA
Highlights: Surprise road wins against Rutgers and UTEP, #2 pass defense in C-USA
Weak Points: Four double digit losses, offense and special teams stats in bottom of conference.
Grade: C+. Tulane deserves credit for grabbing a nice win over Rutgers and being almost average in a season that looked dismal early on. If the offense can catch up to the defense, they could make some noise this fall. Four straight home games will help.
Remaining Games: SMU, Southern Miss, Rice, UCF, at Marshall
Best Case: 3-2, with one upset in the bunch.
Worst Case: 1-4. Even if the Green Wave has a complete collapse, there’s at least one win in there.
Prediction: 2-3. I think the gap to the teams at the top of the league is wide, but shrinking.

UAB

Record: 2-5, 1-2 C-USA
Highlights: Beat rival Troy and surprised then 5-1 UTEP at home, took Tennessee to overtime and led in the 4th against Miss State, lead the league in sacks.
Weak Points: Not finishing games against SEC teams, bad losses to UCF and SMU in league play, not scoring points (10th) despite decent offense (6th in yards).
Grade: C-. UAB is not as bad as their record, but the schedule has not gone well for them. They’ll look back on their SEC games, especially UT, and know it may be a while before they get chances that good to beat those teams.
Remaining Games: at Southern Miss, Marshall, East Carolina, Memphis, at Rice
Best Case: 3-2. Like Tulane before, there’s a substantial gap up to the top 3 in the East, but the Blazers can and should compete well against anyone else.
Worst Case: 0-5. This is a team that is capable of shutting it down and coming apart at the seams, although I don’t think they will.
Prediction: 2-3. They could win the third one too. I think they’ll finish 4th in the East, it’s the Rice game I’m not sure about.

UCF

Record: 5-2, 3-0 C-USA
Highlights: Three straight blowout wins over C-USA opponents, took Kansas State to final seconds, lead the league in total defense (7th nationally), scoring defense (8th), and tackles for loss (12th).
Weak Points: Unable to finish games against BCS schools, no other opponents yet have winning records, 12th in passing offense.
Grade: B+. UCF has done what they’re supposed to do, and arguably is only two or three mistakes from being 7-0. But lacking that breakthrough win, I can’t give them an A.
Remaining Games: East Carolina, at Houston, Southern Mississippi, at Tulane, at Memphis
Best Case: 5-0, Conference championship game and on to the Liberty Bowl.
Worst Case: 2-3. If the ECU game goes badly, it’s possible that the wheels come off, but I doubt it.
Prediction: 4-1. I think UCF can shut down ECU this weekend, but the string of Houston and Southern Miss makes it hard to predict running the table. That said, depending on the timing of the loss, a win over ECU may make the conference championship game possible even with a loss.

MAC Mid-Season Report Cards, Part III

lowercase — Wed, 27 Oct 2010 14:00:53 +0000

Most of the MAC played six straight to open the season, but three stragglers (Buffalo, Kent State, and Western Michigan), took a little longer.

Buffalo

Record: 2-5, 1-2 MAC
Highlights: Road win at Bowling Green, #1 pass defense in the league, #4 total defense.
Weak Points: 42-0 shutout to Temple, #12 scoring offense despite mid-pack total offense numbers.
Grade: D. Buffalo’s non-conference schedule has turned out to be pretty decent, as Baylor and UCF are both playing well, but Buffalo is struggling under their new coaching regime no matter how you slice it.
Remaining Games: Miami, at Ohio, Ball State, Eastern Michigan, at Akron
Best Case: 3-2 for a decent 5-7 finish.
Worst Case: 2-3 with a loss to one of the bad teams at the end.
Prediction: 3-2. The next two games are tough ones, but the stretch at the end should give the Bulls something to build on for 2011.

Kent State

Record: 3-4, 2-2 MAC
Highlights: Defeated rival Akron, sound win over Bowling Green, #1 in rush, pass efficiency, and total defense in the MAC.
Weak Points: Shutout by Penn State despite holding them to 24, #12 in total offense
Grade: C. Kent State has had a tough schedule to this point, and has beaten the teams they should beat, but they’ve missed a few opportunities to improve the record.
Remaining Games: Ball State, Temple, Army, at Western Michigan, Ohio
Best Case: 5-0. If the defense steps up and the offense comes around, there’s nobody left that they absolutely cannot beat.
Worst Case: 1-4. On the flip side, none of the last four are easy games either.
Prediction: 2-3 to end the season 5-7. Kent State just hasn’t been consistent enough to predict too many wins down the stretch.

Western Michigan

Record: 3-4, 2-1 MAC
Highlights: Blowout wins over Akron & Ball State, #1 scoring offense & passing offense in the MAC
Weak Points: 0-3 against out of conference FBS teams, defensive stats in the bottom five. Poor rushing stats makes team one-dimensional
Grade: C-. Western really hasn’t played many games against teams that should be on the same level, although double-digit losses to Toledo and Idaho don’t look good.
Remaining Games: Northern Illinois, at Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, at Bowling Green
Best Case: 4-1, for a 7-5 record and a potential bowl bid.
Worst Case: 2-3, as the schedule is soft enough to prevent a complete disaster.
Prediction: I think they will go 4-1 and should find an at-large bowl somewhere out there.

Sun Belt Mid-Season Report Cards, Part II

lowercase — Tue, 26 Oct 2010 19:09:39 +0000

The rest of the Sun Belt has reached or passed the midpoint of their seasons- FIU, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana, ULM, Middle Tennessee State, Troy, and Western Kentucky are all finally into the last half of their seasons.

FIU

Record: 2-4, 2-0 Sun Belt
Highlights: Consecutive wins over Sun Belt teams after 0-4 start against BCS schools. Had legitimate chance to win at least 3 of those games. #1 Total Defense in the league despite schedule.
Weak Points: Big loss to Pittsburgh, special teams numbers low, last in Sun Belt passing efficiency.
Grade: C-. If FIU had a 1-AA, or even a low end C-USA or MAC school, they could be 3-3 by now.
Remaining Games: at Florida Atlantic, ULM, at Troy, at Louisiana, Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee
Best Case: 6-0 for an 8-4 season and the New Orleans Bowl. Troy will be a tough game, but we don’t know just how good FIU can be yet.
Worst Case: 3-3 for a 5-7 year, home for the postseason.
Prediction: 5-1, 7-5 on the season and off to the first winning season and bowl in FIU history.

Florida Atlantic

Record: 1-5, 0-3 Sun Belt
Highlights: Last second victory over UAB to start the season, #2 pass defense in the league.
Weak Points: 5 game losing streak since opening weekend including to struggling North Texas, worst offense in the league, worst rushing defense.
Grade: D-. After an optimistic start, things have gone badly for the Owls.
Remaining Games: FIU, at Western Kentucky, Louisiana, at Texas, at Middle Tennessee, Troy
Best Case: 2-4 with a rough stretch at the end.
Worst Case: 0-6, now that Western Kentucky has managed to win, there are no easy wins for FAU.
Prediction: 1-5, I think they can win one of the next three, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it.

Louisiana

Record: 2-5, 2-3 Sun Belt
Highlights: 7 point win over decent Arkansas State team, #2 rushing defense in the league.
Weak Points: Blown out by Western Kentucky, last in scoring defense.
Grade: D+. There’s still time to salvage a little of the season, but things are looking bleak right now.
Remaining Games: at Ohio, at Mississippi, at Florida Atlantic, FIU, at ULM
Best Case: 4-1 to piece together a 6-6 season, with a slim chance of picking up a leftover bowl bid somewhere.
Worst Case: 0-5- once you lose to WKU, any loss is possible.
Prediction: 1-4 and probably a new coach for 2011.

ULM

Record: 3-4, 2-2 Sun Belt
Highlights: 4th quarter comeback to avoid being WKU’s first win
Weak Points: Several blowout losses, last in the league in scoring offense, 7th scoring defense.
Grade: C-. Their record is actually better than the statistics might lead one to believe, but it means the Warhawks are on thin ice.
Remaining Games: Troy, at FIU, at LSU, North Texas, Louisiana
Best Case: 3-2 and into the 6-6 pile hoping for something in the postseason.
Worst Case: 0-5. They shouldn’t fall that hard, but the possibility does exist.
Prediction: 2-3 for a 5-7 finish, with a good chance to win over their collapsing rival.

Middle Tennessee State

Record: 3-4, 2-1 Sun Belt
Highlights: Beat both Louisiana schools easily. #2 total defense, #3 total offense in Sun Belt.
Weak Points: Dismally underachieving vs. expectations, blown out by Troy & Georgia Tech, lost to a terrible Memphis team.
Grade: D+. Points off for falling so far below expectations. You can’t lose to Troy by 29 at home in a year you’re supposed to win the league.
Remaining Games: at Arkansas State, North Texas, at Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, at FIU
Best Case: 5-0 for an 8-4 year and a bowl bid.
Worst Case: 2-3, well down the league standings, and home for the holidays.
Prediction: 4-1 and invited to the GoDaddy or Birmingham bowls.

Troy

Record: 4-2, 3-0 Sun Belt
Highlights: Avenged 2009 loss to Bowling Green, blowout win over MTSU, #1 in total and scoring offense.
Weak Points: Inexplicable loss to UAB early on, pass defense 8th in the league causing total & scoring defenses to be lower ranked.
Grade: A-. Points off for the UAB loss, but bonus points for nearly coming away from Oklahoma State with a win. Good start to the season for Troy in a rebuilding year.
Remaining Games: at ULM, at North Texas, FIU, at South Carolina, Western Kentucky, at Florida Atlantic
Best Case: 5-1, Sun Belt Champs again, and off to New Orleans.
Worst Case: 4-2, but still in the postseason. Birmingham Bowl might be a good fit.
Prediction: 5-1. I think FIU will be surging, but getting that game at home might be the difference.

Western Kentucky

Record: 1-6, 1-2 Sun Belt
Highlights: Demolishing Louisiana to break the nation’s longest losing streak. #2 in the league in turnover margin.
Weak Points: 4th quarter collapse against ULM, bottom half or third of the league in most categories.
Grade: D. The season hasn’t been great, but this is a much better team than we saw last year and they’re decisively moving in the right direction, which not every school in the Belt can say.
Remaining Games: North Texas, Florida Atlantic, at Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee State, at Troy
Best Case: 2-3 with a bit of a win streak in there.
Worst Case: 0-5 for a 1-11 season.
Prediction: 1-4, although I think they’ll be competitive in both of their next two or even three games. It is good that the streak has been broken before they get to those last two games.

MAC Mid-Season Report Cards, Part II

lowercase — Fri, 15 Oct 2010 18:14:45 +0000

Finally, the last batch of reviews for this week. Which is handy, because week 7 starts in about 22 hours. By odd coincidence, MAC teams in the lower half of the alphabetical sort (in this case, Miami, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, and Temple) are having much better seasons than the ones in the top half. Go figure.

Miami

Record: 3-3, 2-0 MAC
Highlights: Wins over Colorado State and Kent State, exposing Florida’s horrific offense in week 1, lead the league in turnover margin.
Weak Points: Blowout losses to Missouri and Cincinnati, worst ground game in the league (119th in the country), most team stats are bottom half of the MAC.
Grade: B-. Extra points for exceeding expectations- only losses are to BCS league teams, and they’ve already beaten teams they would have lost to in 2009.
Remaining Games: at Central Michigan, Ohio, at Buffalo, at Bowling Green, at Akron, Temple
Best Case: 5-1 for an 8-4 season and a bowl bid. CMU and Ohio certainly haven’t looked unbeatable so far this year.
Worst Case: 1-5 for a disappointing ending, but still a big improvement over 2009.
Prediction: 3-3, and probably at the bottom of the bowl priority list, meaning it’ll be tough to find a game for the postseason. They could certainly perform better though.

Northern Illinois

Record: 4-2, 2-0 MAC
Highlights: Resounding wins over Minnesota and East favorite Temple. Top rushing team in the MAC, allowing just 10.2 points per game despite 3 BCS teams on the schedule.
Weak Points: Special teams ranks among the lowest in the league, pass offense not carrying its share of the load.
Grade: A-. NIU is certainly one of the best non-BCS two loss teams, and probably should have beaten Illinois. Hard to see them losing a conference game the rest of the way.
Remaining Games: Buffalo, Central Michigan, at Western Michigan, Toledo, at Ball State, at Eastern Michigan
Best Case: 6-0 and a win at the MAC Championship, with another chance to beat a Big 10 team at the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl.
Worst Case: 3-3, with potential losses to a good Toledo team, surging Western Michigan, and another upset somewhere in there.
Prediction: 6-0. The Huskies have a favorable schedule and all the momentum in the world, so a loss would be an upset. Not ready to predict the MAC Champ game as Temple will be a bear if they get healthy, and on a neutral field.

Ohio

Record: 3-3, 2-1 MAC
Highlights: Big win over Bowling Green, Scoring offense and defense stats in top 5 of the league.
Weak Points: Lost a winnable game to Marshall by a point, worst turnover margin in the MAC and 103rd nationally, total offense is 9th- scoring points better than they’re moving the ball.
Grade: C. Ohio’s start has been remarkably average. They should be at least 4-2, maybe even 5-1 if they could have found a few more points against Toledo.
Remaining Games: Akron, at Miami, Louisiana, Buffalo, at Temple, at Kent State
Best Case: 6-0 and on to the championship game. This is a stretch, but so far their stats are better than their results, which suggest more wins are possible.
Worst Case: 1-5. Their opposition isn’t world beaters, but if things fall apart for Miami, almost none of the remaining games are easy wins.
Prediction: 4-2. Ohio just hasn’t been consistent enough to suggest that they’ll get back in the mix for the title, but at 7-5 they have a very good chance of finding a bowl spot somewhere.

Toledo

Record: 3-3, 2-0 MAC
Highlights: Knocked off Purdue in week 4, beat defending East champ Ohio in week 2. #3 Rushing defense in the league.
Weak Points: Blowout losses to Arizona and Boise State, lost winnable game to Wyoming, scored 15 or less in 3 losses. Total offense down at 11th in the league, defense is only 8th.
Grade: C+. Toledo is slightly above average, with a nice win over Purdue but a puzzling loss to Wyoming, although the Cowboys record belies a talented team too.
Remaining Games: Kent State, Ball State, at Eastern Michigan, at Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Central Michigan
Best Case: 6-0, on to the Championship and a bowl game. There’s nobody on the slate that Toledo couldn’t beat on the right day.
Worst Case: 2-4. This would be a spectacular collapse for Toledo, but if they don’t bounce back well from the losses to the western teams it’s a possibility.
Prediction: 5-1. I’m sold on this team, just not sure they can get by Northern Illinois this year. It’s possible they wind up back on the blue turf in the Humanitarian Bowl, or down in Mobile for the GMAC.

Temple

Record: 4-2, 1-1 MAC
Highlights: Beat UConn for first BCS win since leaving Big East, #3 rushing attack in the MAC despite injuries to starter.
Weak Points: Held Penn State to 22 points but couldn’t capitalize, 9th in total defense and only 7th in scoring offense despite a less difficult schedule than some MAC rivals.
Grade: C+. Points off for last minute/OT wins against Villanova and Central Michigan. Other than Connecticut, Temple hasn’t had a decisive win yet, which is a recipe for trouble in league play.
Remaining Games: Bowling Green, at Buffalo, Akron, at Kent State, Ohio, at Miami
Best Case: 6-0 and on to the MAC championship for another shot at NIU
Worst Case: 3-3, losing to Ohio and a couple of upsets where Temple can’t score.
Prediction: 5-1, which might still be enough to get to Detroit. I just don’t trust Temple’s inconsistent offense enough to see them avoid stumbling somewhere. Kent State, Ohio, and Miami will be a hungry bunch of teams in November.

Mountain West Mid-Season Report Cards

lowercase — Fri, 15 Oct 2010 15:22:43 +0000

Most of the Mountain West has reached the halfway point, so we’ll take a look at how the first six games have gone for Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, TCU, UNLV, and Wyoming.

Air Force

Record: 5-1, 3-0 Mountain West
Highlights: Wins over BYU and Navy, both for the first time in years. #1 rushing offense in America, well ranked in most stats.
Weak Points: Offense yards aren’t always turning into points- 3 game stretch only scoring 24, 20, and 14 before Colorado State game.
Grade: A. Nothing to complain about with Air Force- their only loss is by 3 to an unbeaten Oklahoma, by 3 and closing fast.
Remaining Games: at San Diego State, at TCU, Utah, at Army, New Mexico, at UNLV
Best Case: 5-1 for a 10-2 season and a trip to the Las Vegas Bowl. I think they might be able to turn back TCU or Utah, but doing both is pretty unthinkable
Worst Case: 4-2 and still landing a nice bowl. Air Force will be big favorites over everybody who isn’t TCU or Utah.
Prediction:4-2. I think they’re still a step down from those two, but clearly the third best team in the MWC. I think the Vegas bowl will think hard about picking the Falcons, but probably the Independence against an ACC opponent.

BYU

Record: 2-4, 1-1 Mountain West
Highlights: Opened the season with a win over a decent Washington team, also beat a decent SDSU group last week. Pass defense ranked 33rd nationally.
Weak Points: Loss to rival Utah State for the first time in forever, bad losses to Nevada and Florida State. Offense and defense both rate in the lowest 25% of the country.
Grade: D. BYU is in a rebuilding season and played a lot of good teams in the first half (four are nationally ranked), but the fact is they’re not delivering on the field. Need to start scoring some points if they want to compete in the second half.
Remaining Games: at TCU, Wyoming, UNLV, at Colorado State, New Mexico, at Utah
Best Case: 4-2 and probably bowl bound somewhere. BYU hasn’t given any evidence that they might beat TCU or Utah.
Worst Case: 2-4, home for the postseason for the first time in ages.
Prediction: 3-3, just missing bowl eligibility. BYU isn’t so bad as to lose to the likes of New Mexico, but I think there’s an extra loss somewhere in the Wyoming-UNLV-CSU stretch.

Colorado State

Record: 1-5, 0-2 Mountain West
Highlights: Surprise win over a decent Idaho team, #3 passing offense in the league.
Weak Points: All five losses have been ugly, including rival Colorado and previously lowly Miami (Oh). Worst pass efficiency defense in America, 115th in scoring offense.
Grade: F. The win over Idaho is good, but otherwise the Rams have been utterly dismal. They can’t score, they can’t stop anybody…and the opposition hasn’t been nearly as good as what BYU or Air Force has seen so far.
Remaining Games: UNLV, at Utah, New Mexico, at San Diego State, BYU, at Wyoming
Best Case: 3-3, which would be considered salvaging the season.
Worst Case: 0-6, which is possible, but less likely as long as New Mexico is on the schedule.
Prediction:2-4. CSU has shown they can pull an upset once in a while, and I think there are teams left that they might catch out.

New Mexico

Record: 0-6, 0-2 Mountain West
Highlights: Almost won a game. 42nd nationally in kickoff returns.
Weak Points: Everything. Ugly losses despite a tough schedule, 13 out of the 17 stats the NCAA tracks are 100th or worse, dead last in scoring defense and, oddly, net punting.
Grade: F. Another dismal year underway in the Mike Locksley year. Surely he has six games left in his career there.
Remaining Games: San Diego State, at Colorado State, Wyoming, at Air Force, at BYU, TCU
Best Case: 1-5. They might upset CSU or maybe Wyoming.
Worst Case: 0-6. This seems more likely.
Prediction:0-6. CSU has shown signs of life, New Mexico hasn’t, so I’m not seeing a repeat of last year’s win.

TCU

Record: 6-0, 2-0 Mountain West
Highlights: Nice wins over Oregon State and blowout over Baylor. Top total offense and total defense in the league, #1 total defense in the country.
Weak Points: Passing offense struggling a bit, 4th in the league but 74th overall.
Grade: A. No losses, no problems. One Boise State upset away from a decent chance at the national title game.
Remaining Games: BYU, Air Force, at UNLV, at Utah, San Diego State, at New Mexico
Best Case: 6-0 and into a BCS Bowl. With the right combination of losses, maybe even the national title game.
Worst Case: 4-2 and off to the Las Vegas Bowl.
Prediction:6-0. I think they have the edge over Utah and should run the table for the second year in a row. Not sure yet which BCS Bowl they might land- any could be possible.

UNLV

Record: 1-5, 1-1 Mountain West
Highlights: Big win over New Mexico, total defense is 5th in the MWC.
Weak Points: Bad losses across the board, including rival Nevada and by 39 at West Virginia. Offense is ranked 112th in the country, turnover margin is only stat better than 5th in the league.
Grade: D+. Bonus points for a brutal schedule while rebuilding under a new coaching staff. All five losses came to teams with winning records.
Remaining Games: TCU, at BYU, Wyoming, Air Force, at San Diego State, at Hawaii
Best Case: 3-4, if they really surge somehow.
Worst Case: 0-7. With New Mexico out of the way, none of the games are easy ones.
Prediction: 1-6. I think there’s one more win in that group for UNLV, but this is clearly a tough season no matter how it comes out.

Wyoming

Record: 2-4, 0-2
Highlights: Win over a good Toledo team on the road, good punting stats.
Weak Points: Last in America in rushing and total offense (118th in scoring), 116th in total defense.
Grade: C-. Giving the grade a boost for another brutal schedule that won’t get easier this week- four losses to teams that were ranked at the time. Somewhat remarkable to have even two wins with such bad stats on both sides of the ball.
Remaining Games: Utah, at BYU, San Diego State, at New Mexico, at UNLV, Colorado State
Best Case: 5-1 and back into a bowl game
Worst Case: 1-5 and back to square one.
Prediction: 4-2 for a 6-6 season and hoping for a bowl opening somewhere. Despite the ugly numbers so far, I think a turnaround is coming against the back half of the league. I could be wrong.

WAC Mid-Season Report Cards

lowercase — Thu, 14 Oct 2010 14:09:50 +0000

Five teams have reached the halfway point of the last WAC season as we know it- Hawaii, Louisiana Tech, Nevada, San Jose State, and Utah State. The rest reach the midpoint on Saturday, for a nice, normal split.

Hawaii

Record: 4-2, 2-0 WAC
Highlights: Tough road wins at Army and Fresno State, leading the country in passing offense, 11th nationally in scoring offense.
Weak Points: Bad loss at Colorado, running game is 117th, defense is below average, kick returns are terrible.
Grade: A. Hawaii has looked very strong against decent WAC teams, and hasn’t lost a non-BCS game yet. Not sure if they can compete with Nevada and Boise, but we’re about to find out.
Remaining Games: Nevada, at Utah State, Idaho, at Boise State, San Jose State, at New Mexico State, UNLV
Best Case: 6-1 and the Hawaii Bowl (if they’re eligible, that’s where they go). I don’t think they win out, but they could potentially steal one from the WAC leaders.
Worst Case: 4-3. Losses to Boise & Nevada and a surprise from one of the other five.
Prediction: 5-2. I think they’ll take a loss this weekend, and in Boise, but nobody else on their schedule is playing as well as the Warriors. 9-4 on the season and comfortably playing in their home bowl game.

Louisiana Tech

Record: 2-4, 1-1 WAC
Highlights: Surprise win over Utah State, #4 rushing offense in the WAC.
Weak Points: Nearly everything, statistically. Only one win over FCS teams.
Grade: D. Tough season under a new coach, but the Utah State win could turn things around.
Remaining Games: Idaho, at Boise State, Fresno State, at New Mexico State, at San Jose State, Nevada
Best Case: 4-2 with losses to just the Big Two in the league, drawing other strong teams Idaho and Fresno State at home. 6-6 and hoping for a bowl bid.
Worst Case: 1-5. Even if the wheels come off, they’ll surely win at least one between NM State and SJSU.
Prediction: 2-4 for a 4-8 season. They certainly could get one more win than that one, but the Bulldogs appear to be about the 6th or 7th best team in the league.

Nevada

Record: 6-0, 1-0 WAC
Highlights: Friday night win over Cal, road wins over BYU & UNLV. #2 offense in the country (best in the WAC),#3 nationally in punting.
Weak Points: Defense has given up a lot of points to a few weak teams, kick returns unspectacular.
Grade: A. Besides a lack of near-shutouts, nothing to complain about from the Wolf Pack. They’ve trampled all opposition so far and are moving up inside the top 25.
Remaining Games: at Hawaii, Utah State, at Idaho, at Fresno State, New Mexico State, Boise State, at Louisiana Tech
Best Case: 7-0 for a 13-0 season that might be on the edge of a BCS bid.
Worst Case: 5-2, 11-2 on the season and still on the Humanitarian Bowl
Prediction: 6-1 and in the H-Bowl. I think Nevada can outrun Hawaii, but Boise State’s defense is on another level right now.

San Jose State

Record: 1-5, 0-1 WAC
Highlights: Top punt return numbers in the WAC, 9th nationally. Only lost to one FCS team.
Weak Points: Loss to FCS UC Davis, rated 7th or worse in conference for all the major stat categories.
Grade: F. If not for the FCS loss, this would probably be a D, since their other four games have been against teams currently ranked 8, 16, 10, and 21. They get #3 this week.
Remaining Games: Boise State, Fresno State, at New Mexico State, Utah State, at Hawaii, Louisiana Tech, at Idaho
Best Case: 3-4. If the Spartans really turn things around, they have a couple winnable home games and could beat NM State on the road.
Worst Case: 0-7, which remains a possibility, but we can’t say for sure since SJSU hasn’t played an unranked FBS team.
Prediction: 1-6 for a 2-11 season. Tough sledding for the Spartans this year, but they should find a way to win one somewhere, although they may not be favored in any.

Utah State

Record: 2-4, 0-2 WAC
Highlights: Beating BYU on a national Friday night game, #3 rushing offense in the WAC
Weak Points: Neither offense nor defense rated well, never seem to use momentum off wins or close games.
Grade: D. Every time the Aggies show signs of life (losing to Oklahoma by 7, beating BYU) they tend to lay an egg the shortly thereafter (lost to Fresno by 20 after a FCS win, lost to La Tech badly last week).
Remaining Games: Hawaii, at Nevada, New Mexico State, at San Jose State, Idaho, at Boise State
Best Case: 3-3, beating the other cellar dwellers and upsetting one of the other four.
Worst Case: 0-6. This shouldn’t happen, but if they don’t improve on their two field goal outing in Ruston, they’re in trouble.
Prediction: 2-4. Hard to see this team upsetting any of the top teams in the WAC, based on what we’ve seen so far. But they beat BYU, so the season still has to been seen as a good one, right?

MAC Mid-Season Report Cards, Part I

lowercase — Wed, 13 Oct 2010 20:48:11 +0000

The MAC has a very front-loaded schedule, which means 10 of the 13 teams have played six games in the first six weeks. Because you don’t want to read (and I don’t want to write) about 10 MAC teams in one shot, I’m breaking them into two parts. Here are the first five on the list- Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, and Eastern Michigan (it’s alphabetical, not because they’re all terrible). Eastern Michigan will be moved to the next batch because the NCAA Stats database just went down again.

Akron

Record: 0-6, 0-2 MAC
Highlights: They gook Gardner-Webb to overtime before losing. They’re 4th in the MAC in Net Punting. They are not 120th in any of the major NCAA stat categories.
Weak Points: Everything but punting. Lost to a FCS team. Hasn’t been within 11 of anybody else. Last in the league in offense, 11th in defense.
Grade: F. To be winless at this point and not get an F, there would have to be some pretty compelling circumstances. Nothing compelling here, just a bad football team.
Remaining Games: at Ohio, Western Michigan, at Temple, at Ball State, Miami, Buffalo
Best Case: 1-5. Unless some other team appears, the only winnable game on the slate is Ball State.
Worst Case: 0-6. This is not unlikely.
Prediction: 0-6 and 0-12 on the season. Ball State has won two games already and the others are all at least decent teams.

Ball State

Record: 2-4, 1-1 MAC
Highlights: Gave Purdue fits, upset Central Michigan on the road. Leading the league in kickoff returns, #2 in rushing offense.
Weak Points: Lost to FCS Liberty. Last in the league in Passing, total offense and defense numbers low in conference.
Grade: D+. Until the CMU game, Ball State had earned the title of ‘Worst Team with a Win,’ but that was a good, if surprising performance. Beat Liberty and they’re a 3-3 ballclub.
Remaining Games: Eastern Michigan, at Toledo, at Kent State, Akron, at Buffalo, Northern Illinois
Best Case: 3-3, beating the two winless teams and stealing one more.
Worst Case: 0-6, which is perhaps unlikely but still not impossible.
Prediction: 2-4. I think they’ll win the pillowfight this weekend, and take care of Akron later on, but that’s about it.

Bowling Green

Record: 1-5, 0-2 MAC
Highlights: Beat Marshall, something Ohio couldn’t do. #3 passing offense in the MAC, #5 total offense. #2 in punt returns.
Weak Points: Bad losses to Ohio and Tulsa, worst total defense and 12th in scoring defense, 12th rushing offense.
Grade: D. The schedule hasn’t been very good to the Falcons thus far, but 1-5 is just bad regardless. There are signs of life, but they have to balance out the offense at least a little and fix the defense.
Remaining Games: at Temple, Kent State, at Central Michigan, Miami, at Toledo, Western Michigan
Best Case: 4-2 in another late surge, maybe even a bowl bid if there’s an at-large spot somewhere.
Worst Case: 0-6 as BGSU somehow doesn’t get to play Akron, Eastern Michigan, OR Ball State this year, so no easy wins. Not fair.
Prediction: 1-5. The Falcons basically have the top half of the league coming up, with the exception of a CMU in the midst of a messy rebuilding process. Hey, speaking of…

Central Michigan

Record: 2-4, 1-2 MAC
Highlights: Demolished FCS Hampton and eternally winless Eastern Michigan. #1 total offense in the MAC and #3 defense.
Weak Points: Inexplicable loss to Ball State, noncompetitive against Virginia Tech, offense sputtered at Temple. Low rankings in most special teams categories.
Grade: D+. Could have gone C-, but that loss to Ball State cannot be ignored. The high ranks in the stats are just not translating into points and wins when it counts, unless you consider Eastern Michigan to be the end of ‘when it counts.’
Remaining Games: Miami, at Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Western Michigan, at Navy, at Toledo
Best Case: 5-1. I don’t think it’s possible for this team to win out, but they could make a run.
Worst Case: 0-6. Every team left on the schedule has played well at some point, or all season. There are no gimmes left on the CMU schedule- and they already lost to one anyway.
Prediction: 2-4. CMU has the talent to win some of these games, and a 4-8 season isn’t the worst way to start a new coaching regime.

Conference USA Mid-Season Report Cards

lowercase — Wed, 13 Oct 2010 15:19:16 +0000

This is the first of two or three parts covering the C-USA teams as they cross the six game mark. Today we look at Memphis, SMU, Tulsa, Southern Miss, and UTEP.

Memphis

Record: 1-5, 0-3 Conference USA
Highlights: Big win over in-state rival Middle Tennessee stopped a two game losing streak to the Blue Raiders.
Weak Points: Last in the league in offense, 10^th in defense. Kick return and turnovers among the worst in the country.
Grade: D-. MTSU is down this year, but still a decent win for the Tigers. Otherwise, nothing has gone right for this team with four of their five losses coming in blowouts.
Remaining Games: Southern Miss, Houston, Tennessee, at Marshall, at UAB, UCF
Best Case: 3-3 with wins over UAB and Marshall, plus a home upset in four chances.
Worst Case: 0-6, since UAB and Marshall are both road games.
Prediction: 1-5, for a 2-10 season. They have a bunch of home games down the stretch, but they’re against UT and 3 of the best teams in the league. Tough road ahead for the rebuilding Tigers.

Southern Methodist

Record: 4-2, 3-0 Conference USA
Highlights: Avenged a 2009 loss to Washington State for the first BCS conference win in years, beat 3 conference foes with ease. Lead C-USA in pass efficiency, 4^th in total offense, 5^th in defense.
Weak Points: Disappointing losses to Texas Tech and TCU, kick returns need improvement, turnovers are below average in the league and country.
Grade: A-. The losses are forgivable in this case, and SMU has risen to the level of division favorite in C-USA West. June Jones has the Mustangs in really good shape.
Remaining Games: at Navy, Houston, at Tulane, at UTEP, Marshall, at East Carolina
Best Case: 6-0, Conference Championship, Liberty Bowl.
Worst Case: 2-4 with losses to Navy, Houston, UTEP, ECU
Prediction: 5-1, West Division Championship, Hawaii or Armed Forces Bowl bid.

Tulsa

Record: 3-3, 1-2 Conference USA
Highlights: Win over Bowling Green from the MAC & blowout win over Memphis. #1 rushing offense and total offense in C-USA.
Weak Points: Bad loss to Oklahoma State, no semblance of a defense when Memphis is not involved- worst pass defense in the league, total defense 9^th.
Grade: C. This could even be lower, since Tulsa’s only wins are over 1-5 Memphis, 1-5 Bowling Green, and FCS Central Arkansas. They did push ECU and SMU to the limit in those games though, and could be on the edge of a breakthrough.
Remaining Games: Tulane, at Notre Dame, Rice, at Houston, UTEP, Southern Miss
Best Case: 6-0 and probably a New Orleans bowl bid. Nobody on the remaining schedule is absolutely unbeatable if Tulsa can step up their defense a little bit. That’s a reach, but it’s possible enough to put in this space.
Worst Case: 1-5, losing to Notre Dame and only winning one of Tulane and Rice
Prediction: 3-3 with losses to the Irish, Houston, and one of UTEP and USM. They should be bowl eligible, hoping the Texas Bowl needs C-USA to fill a spot or someone needs an at-large spot.

Southern Mississippi

Record: 4-2, 1-1 Conference USA
Highlights: Win over Kansas for a BCS win, #1 rushing defense in the league and first in turnover margin.
Weak Points: Beaten badly on opening night by South Carolina, pass defense exposed in high scoring loss to East Carolina this weekend.
Grade: B. USM remains one of the favorites to win the division, but the loss to East Carolina is one they’d like to have back.
Remaining Games: at Memphis, UAB, at Tulane, at UCF, Houston, at Tulsa
Best Case: 6-0, Conference Championship and Liberty Bowl bid. USM has the talent to compete with everyone on the schedule, but those last three games are brutal.
Worst Case: 2-4 with an upset in those earlier game setting up a bad stretch to the finish.
Prediction: 4-2 for an 8-4 season and a trip to the St. Petersburg Bowl

UTEP

Record: 5-1, 2-1 Conference USA
Highlights: Decisive wins over rivals from New Mexico, leading the league in both kick return categories, second in scoring defense, top half of league in all major stats.
Weak Points: Bad loss to Houston, wins are over teams with 5 combined wins.
Grade: B+. This is an easy A if UTEP’s wins weren’t over most of the worst teams in America. You can’t blame them for their schedule (which stays pretty easy for a couple more weeks), but they haven’t had much chance to prove themselves against quality talent.
Remaining Games: at UAB, Tulane, at Marshall, SMU, at Arkansas, at Tulsa
Best Case: 5-1 and a bid in the Hawaii or Armed Forces bowl. SMU and Arkansas are pretty tall tasks, but SMU is at home so a win isn’t off the table.
Worst Case: 3-3. I can’t see them losing in the next three games, but the last three are rough.
Prediction: 4-2 for the breakthrough bowl season they’ve been looking for, either at Hawaii or Armed Forces.