The third of our non-BCS teams that reached 6 games during midweek contests last week, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane were made out to [...]]]> The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well.  Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.

The third of our non-BCS teams that reached 6 games during midweek contests last week, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane were made out to be worthless scrubs while they gave Boise State all they could handle a week ago, mostly due to their blowout loss to now-struggling Oklahoma.  But fans of non-BCS teams and conferences know that Tulsa is always dangerous and often very good, and have shown flashes of both this season too.  They have a bounceback game tonight at UTEP, so consider this Part 1 of a preview there too.

• Wins: B. The reality of the situation is that Tulsa has played two very good teams, a 1-AA team, a bad team, and two very bad teams.  So essentially, Tulsa has done the bare minimum that would be expected of them, but other than playing BSU close, not much more.  And so we do have to keep the schedule in mind when we look at the stats.
• Offense:  B. Tulsa’s offense has taken a step back, with former OC Gus Malzahn now tearing it up over at Auburn and a new QB at the reins, but they’re still playing well.  47th in total offense, at 394 per game, and 35th in scoring with almost 31.  The teams on their schedule are going to get a little better, but the defenses generally are not.
• Defense:  B+. Tulsa is 29th in total defense, allowing only 312 per game, and 24th in scoring defense at 312 yards per.  Of the weaker teams on their schedule, none scored more than 13, which helps to offset OU’s 45 and Boise’s 28.
• Special Teams: C+. Tulsa is 19th in punt returns, 57th in kickoff returns, but down at 84th in net punting.  Overall, average numbers that probably aren’t helping or hurting Tulsa much overall.
• Turnovers: A. Tulsa is +6, with 13 takeaways and 7 lost.  These numbers are easier to build when you do have 4 bad teams on the schedule early on, so we’ll have to see how the trend develops in the second half.
• Grading Curve: Points off. As I’ve mentioned about 19 times so far, their schedule is weak, but that’s changing starting last week.  Sagarin gives Tulsa the 119th toughest schedule so far.
• Final Grade: B-. Would have liked to see the Golden Hurricane put up a little more fight against Oklahoma after things got tough there.  We have a lot to learn about this team yet, as they get into the meat of their C-USA schedule.

Remaining Games:

• at UTEP (tonight)
• SMU
• Houston
• East Carolina
• at Southern Miss
• Memphis

Best Case Scenario:6-0. There’s nobody on the slate that Tulsa has no chance of beating- they stand with the #1 defense in the league, despite the big OU loss, and a stout defense in C-USA makes anything possible

Worst Case Scenario:  2-4.  That 4 game stretch in the middle is essentially the other four best teams in the league.  If things go badly, Tulsa’s season could fall apart.

Prediction: 4-2. Tulsa’s pretty good, but not the class of C-USA this year.  I think Houston is a tough matchup, and there’s probably at least one more loss in that late season stretch.  Tulsa should be in good shape to play in the postseason to keep the string going.

Hey, look, this Boise State bunch is pretty good.  Debuting at 4th in the first BCS Poll, the Broncos are the first non-BCS [...]]]> The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well.  Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.

Hey, look, this Boise State bunch is pretty good.  Debuting at 4th in the first BCS Poll, the Broncos are the first non-BCS team that meets all the requirements for a realistic shot at a National Championship Game bid- ranked high at the beginning of the season, a couple quality opponents, and winning.  Now, I know the college football illuminati are getting nervous about actually putting them in the game, and they’re going to need a lot of help, since I suspect they’ll be the last choice behind the SEC guys, Texas, Iowa, and Cincinnati.  They also have to get through a slate of decent-to-good WAC teams without slipping, which could be just as hard.

• Wins: A. Oregon is tearing it up in the Pac-10 and is now a Rose Bowl candidate, Fresno State is back on their feet, and Tulsa still sits at 4-2 and should be a 9 or 10 win team this year.  Yes, they’ve got some dud teams on the schedule too, but not too many.
• Offense: A. Boise State’s scoring offense is 7th in the country, and the total offense is a solid 24th with 429.5 ypg.  Nobody has held Boise to less than 28 since Oregon (19) on opening night.
• Defense: A. The Broncos are sitting at 14th overall in total defense, allowing just 277 ypg and 15.5 points per game, good for 18th there.  They’ve only let in more than 21 once, 34 to Fresno State.
• Special Teams:  B. Only the punt returning is keeping them from an A here too- buried in the middle, 61st overall.  Meanwhile, they have the #7 punting unit in the country and are 12th in kick returns.
• Turnovers:  B. Boise is only +3, which isn’t bad, but there’s room to get better too.  Only 8 given away, and 11 taken back.
• Grading Curve: No Change. Boise is meeting expectations, but they’re probably going to have to do more if they want to sneak into that title game.  If you’re reading this, you know that Tulsa and Idaho and Nevada are good teams- but the pollsters in New York and Atlanta and Dallas don’t know this, and if Boise isn’t winning those games by 20, they think something is wrong.
• Final Grade: A. Hard to find fault with the best overall numbers of any team outside the BCS, and just about any team inside it too.

Remaining Games:

Like Navy and a couple other teams, Boise has 13 games this year, thanks to the NCAA’s allowing of an extra games for teams that travel to Hawaii.

• at Hawaii
• San Jose State
• at Louisiana Tech
• Idaho
• at Utah State
• Nevada
• New Mexico State

Best Case Scenario: 7-0, with other teams in the top 5 getting taken out by conference foes, and on into the championship game.

Worst Case Scenario: There are two, which could be equally disappointing: They drop a conference game or two to the likes of Nevada or Idaho and get bounced out of the national picture, or they go 7-0…but get jumped by a TCU team that’s gaining steam and may have a better strength of schedule when it’s all over.  They got edged out by Utah last year, and it could possibly happen again.

Prediction: 7-0 and in a BCS bowl, but too much has to happen to get them into the big one.

We got a good look at the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks last Tuesday night when they held off Arkansas State in an important Sun [...]]]> The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well.  Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.

We got a good look at the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks last Tuesday night when they held off Arkansas State in an important Sun Belt showdown.  That win put them into the conference lead, which they now share with Troy at 3-0 in the league.  These league wins are vital for Monroe’s postseason chances, as non-conference games with 3 strong BCS league teams are bad for bowl eligibility.

• Wins: B. ULM has gotten the job done against the Sun Belt and the 1-AA team on the schedule, but is 0-2 against Texas and Arizona State, understandably.
• Offense:  B. The Warhawks have the 21st ranked rushing attack in the country at 194 ypg, and leading the Sun Belt.  Passing isn’t as bad as some top rushing teams, but still just 200 ypg.  Overall, they have the #46 total offense and the #36 scoring offense- which is enough to get the job done against most of the Sun Belt.
• Defense:  C. Allowing 59 points to Texas never helps defensive stats, but neither does allowing FIU to score 35 on you.  Total defense is dead average at 60th overall, but scoring defense is lower at 84th, 27.8 points per game.  I suspect both of these numbers will improve against teams like WKU and North Texas in the second half.
• Special Teams: C-. Would be worse, but net punting is 19th overall, so they do have some good coverage and good kicking there.  But the return game is problematic- 108th in punt returns at 3.71 yards and 86th in kickoff returns.  More yardage here means the offense would have the chance to go from good to great, especially in terms of putting even more points on the board.
• Turnovers: B-. +2 overall, which they’ll need to continue to work on, given their problems on special teams.  13 taken and 11 given are pretty average in both column.
• Grading Curve: No Change. Like many good non-BCS teams, ULM has lost the games you would have definitely expected, won the toss-up game, and beaten the teams you expect them to beat.  If they keep it up, the first bowl game in ULM history is within reach.
• Final Grade:  B. ULM fans have a lot to be excited about- they’re better than a lot of teams on their schedule, they have great momentum, and they’re set to do things they haven’t done in the past.

Remaining Games:

• at Kentucky
• at Troy
• at North Texas
• Western Kentucky
• at Louisiana Lafayette
• Middle Tennessee State

Best Case Scenario: 5-1. A team like Kentucky is a tough task for anybody from the Sun Belt, but if Monroe keeps things going, they have a decent chance to get through the league without another loss.

Worst Case Scenario: 2-4. If things go badly, they do still have some of the best of the league left too, with Troy and later when MTSU comes to town, along with their in-state, in-conference rivals at Lafayette.

Prediction: 4-2. 5-1 would not surprise me, but there are a few pretty good teams left, and 8-4 would qualify as a successful season for the Warhawks.  The Sun Belt’s bowl arrangements are complex, depending on other leagues to come up short, but if the slots are available, I think Louisiana Monroe should be filling one this season.

Central Michigan is the only team I haven’t gotten to yet before they played their seventh game.  And since the NCAA stats site [...]]]> The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well.  Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.

Central Michigan is the only team I haven’t gotten to yet before they played their seventh game.  And since the NCAA stats site doesn’t save the week-by-week averages, the numbers are based on 7 games, not the first six, so I apologize if that offends anyone.  Right, moving on.

The CMU Chippewas are out to one of their best starts ever, now 6-1 and 4-0 in the MAC.  They’re now in the drivers seat in the MAC West and really looking like the premiere team in the league, with wins over Michigan State and no conference wins by less than a touchdown.

• Wins: A. Got the big win over Michigan State and have been steamrolling in the league.  A 10 win season looks very possible from here.
• Offense:  B+. One of the most balanced offenses in the MAC, putting up 400 yards per game, good for 43rd overall and 3rd in the MAC, but both passing and rushing offenses are ranked in the 40s as well and top 5 in the MAC.  Scoring offense is leading the MAC and 15th in the country, racking up over 34 points per game.
  
• Defense: A. Once again, consistency against any offense and really keeping the points down- 19th overall in scoring defense, at less than 16 points per game, leading the MAC in that stat as well.  Total defense is 37th overall.
• Special Teams: C+. CMU is 2nd overall in punt returns, at over 21 yards per game, but down at 90th in kickoff returns- with fewer yards than the punt returners.  Punting is right around the average at 61st.
• Turnovers:  C-. -1 overall, but in a strange manner- the offense is protecting the ball, with only 7 turnovers so far, but the defense just isn’t getting the takeaways- only 6 all season.
• Grading Curve: Bonus Points- the schedule hasn’t been too tough overall, but the win over Michigan State is a big one in any season for the smaller Michigan schools.
• Final Grade: A. The Chippewas are winning the big games, winning conference games, and playing well on both sides of the ball.

Remaining Games:

• at Bowling Green
• at Boston College
• Toledo
• at Ball State
• Northern Illinois

Best Case Scenario: 5-0. Boston College is their biggest threat, obviously, but they’ve certainly shown signs of weakness this year.

Worst Case Scenario: 2-3. CMU does have two good West teams left on the slate, so if both of them pulled off upsets, the season could end on a bit of a down note.

Prediction: 4-1. I think they could have a closer league game, but I think they keep rolling right into the conference championship game.

Our Mountain West Marathon concludes, at least for this week, with Air Force (ed note- well, it would have, if I had pushed [...]]]> The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well.  Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.

Our Mountain West Marathon concludes, at least for this week, with Air Force (ed note- well, it would have, if I had pushed the publish button on the Wyoming entry).  Thanks to a bye week, Air Force and UNLV both have Wyoming as their next game, so this is like two game previews done right here.  Air Force has played extremely well this year, and with a little more luck, could honestly have been 6-0.  They lost to Minnesota while the Gophers were opening a brand new stadium by 7, lost on the road at Navy in overtime, and went toe-to-toe with TCU last weekend, falling by 3 when they couldn’t recover an onside kick that could have led to a chance to win.  But despite the losses, Air Force has plenty of reason to be optimistic going forward.

• Wins: C+. Let a couple chances slip away, particularly with a missed field goal in OT against Navy, but getting the job done against the non-top-3 teams in the MWC.
• Offense: C+. Ah, the enigma that is service academy offensive scheming.  Air Force has the #3 rushing game in America, putting up 281 yards per game on the ground, only 7 yards behind Nevada in the lead.  Meanwhile, their air attack is, perhaps ironically, next-to-last.  77 yards per game in the air.  118th? Navy.  120th? Stay tuned, they’re next, but it won’t surprise you.  But combined, the 359 yards is only good enough for 73rd overall and 6th in the MWC, so they’re going to have to step it up somewhere.
• Defense: A. Nobody has put up more than 20 against Air Force, and the scoring defense is 13th overall as a result.  They’re also holding opponents to just 282 ypg, good for 18th nationally.  Things are even better on the turnover front.
  
• Special Teams:  A. 16th in net punting at just under 39 yards, 33rd in punt returns, and 16th in kickoff returns (see, they’re just good on the ground).
• Turnovers: A+. Air Force leads the country in turnover margin at an incredible +16.  That’s 4 clear of second place.  With those kind of turnovers, I don’t know why AFA isn’t blowing people out.
• Grading Curve:  No Change. The Falcons have played the 98th most difficult schedule, and they’ve won and lost the right games along the way.  We’ll see how they do against the rest of the MWC soon.
• Final Grade: B. The stout defense should keep them in nearly every single game- if they could just find a glimmer of a passing game, Air Force would move from bowl contender to league championship contender.

Remaining Games:

• Wyoming
• at Utah
• at Colorado State
• Army
• UNLV
• at BYU

Best Case Scenario: 5-1. This team, on the right day, could beat Utah or BYU.  Both come on the road, and neither is an easy task, but it’s certainly not unimaginable.

Worst Case Scenario: 2-4. Service Academy games are never gimmies, and they still have some good MWC teams, if things all go wrong they could get beat a handful of times.

Prediction: 3-3. If we accept that BYU and Utah are probably losses, then I think winning 3 of the remaining 4 is about right.  But I really wouldn’t be shocked if they come out with an upset and wind up 4-2 or even better.

UNLV came into the season with high expectations, with a lot of people picking them 4th or 5th in the MWC and bowl [...]]]> The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well.  Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.

UNLV came into the season with high expectations, with a lot of people picking them 4th or 5th in the MWC and bowl bound.  Unfortunately, those expectations haven’t turned into wins, although the Rebels’ schedule has been pretty front-loaded so far.  Things started well, sitting at 2-1 after beating Hawaii, but since then they’ve dropped 3 in a row, including games at Wyoming and to in-state rival Nevada.

• Wins: D+. Two of the losses, Oregon State and BYU, were practically a given, and a split between Hawaii and Nevada isn’t the worst possible outcome either.  It’s the loss to Wyoming that hurts the most, to a conference team that looked inferior prior to the season.
• Offense:  B. UNLV has notched the #19 passing attack in the country, a remarkable placing considering that pass-happy is in this year.  Overall, they’re 57th in both total offense (384) and scoring offense (28).
• Defense: F. The defense is a problem- it’s worse than New Mexico’s.  476 yards per game is good for 118 overall, and allowing 35.17 points every time puts them at 112th.  They’re bad in every defensive subcategory too, and if it doesn’t turn around, they’re going to lose a lot more games.
• Special Teams: B+. 14th overall in net punting at 39 yards each time, 48th in kickoff returns and 73 in punt returns.
• Turnovers: F. -6 on the year.  The turnovers are destroying their chances, since it’s hard to prop up a struggling defense when you keep putting them back on the field prematurely.
• Grading Curve:  No Change. Sagarin only puts them at 90th on schedule strength, and UNLV is performing well below preseason expectations at this point.
• Final Grade: D. They have to get the defense performing better, or there aren’t many wins left this season.

Remaining Games:

• Utah
• at New Mexico
• at TCU
• Colorado State
• at Air Force
• San Diego State

Best Case Scenario:  3-3. UNLV’s chances are slim, but they’re not beating TCU or Utah, and at a minimum, they’ll drop at least one more after that.

Worst Case Scenario: 1-5. New Mexico should be a gimme, but there’s nobody else on that slate that UNLV should really be favored against at this point.

Prediction: 2-4. There are just too many good teams in the league this year for UNLV to struggle like they have and win many games.

Our mid-season tour of America now brings us to the bottom: quite possibly the team having the overall worst season in America.  They’re [...]]]> The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well.  Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.

Our mid-season tour of America now brings us to the bottom: quite possibly the team having the overall worst season in America.  They’re 0-6, their new coach received a sternly-worded memo and a 1 game suspension for decking an assistant, they’ve lost to their in-state rival already, and they haven’t even seen the best of the MWC yet.

• Wins: F. No wins, and they got demolished in all but one game.
• Offense: F. Just so we’re clear, there’s going to be a lot of these.  Total offense is 108th, putting up 296 ypg.  Scoring offense even worse, 118th out of the 120 at only 14.5 points per game.
• Defense: F. 109th in total defense, giving away 430 yards per game, and 117th in scoring D, allowing almost 38 ppg.
• Special Teams: F. 115th in punt returns, 117th in kickoff returns, but at least they’re 76th in punting.
• Turnovers: F. -6 overall, down at 104th.
• Grading Curve: Bonus Points, but not enough to fix what’s been done here.  Sagarin credits the Lobos with the #67 strength of schedule, and it’s about to get worse.
• Final Grade: F. There just aren’t any bright spots here.  Playing the way they have, New Mexico has no chance to win a game this year- they simply have to improve, there’s nothing they can keep doing the same way and hope to win anything.

Remaining Games:

• UNLV
• at San Diego State
• at Utah
• BYU
• Colorado State
• at TCU

Best Case Scenario: 1-5. Their best hope for a win is probably this weekend, when they play a UNLV team with a defense that’s worse than theirs.  Unfortunately, their offense is much better, so they need not get their hopes up (UNLV happens to be next in my report cards, stay tuned).

Worst Case Scenario: 0-6. For obvious reasons.

Prediction: 0-6. They’re the only 0-6 team that I’ve actually predicted will repeat that feat in the second half.  Things are just that bad down there, I don’t see any way for them to beat anybody on the rest of their schedule.  They might keep a game or two close, but even that is a stretch.  I’ve sat through an 0-11 season, it’s brutal on the fanbase.  Sorry, guys.

East Carolina began its season with its usual slate of top 25 non-conference games, like they do nearly every season.  Things got off [...]]]> The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well.  Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.

East Carolina began its season with its usual slate of top 25 non-conference games, like they do nearly every season.  Things got off to a shaky start, going 1-2 in the early weeks of the season.  Since then, a 2-1 conference record has the season stabilized, but not the results that ECU fans hope for and expect.

• Wins: C. Losses to West Virginia and even in-state rival North Carolina are not a huge surprise, but this weekend’s defeat at the hands of SMU is not what ECU expected.
• Offense:  D-. Oddly, both the rushing and passing attack for ECU are ranked 87th in the categories.  Unfortunately, the combined total of 308 is down at 105th nationally, and the scoring offense is 102nd, at only 21.17.  Even in the games ECU has won, they’ve only scored 29, 19, and 21.  21 is the most they’ve scored against any 1-A team.
• Defense: C+. The defense is what has won games for ECU, ranking 58th in total defense and 4th in C-USA.  Scoring defense is close, 24.83, good for 64th in the country.
• Special Teams: B-. ECU is ranked 5th in the country in punt returns, averaging over 21 yards each time.  Meanwhile, kick returns are about average, and so is net punting.
• Turnovers: B. ECU is +4 on the year, gaining 14 while giving 10 back, which is good for 32nd overall and 5th in the league.
• Grading Curve: Bonus Points. If you’re going to play a 1-AA team, it might as well be a good one, and ECU beat Appalachian State, a squad best known for beating Michigan a couple years ago and winning a bunch of 1-AA championships.  After than, ECU took on WV and UNC before heading into league play.
• Final Grade: C+. ECU is good enough to beat at least a handful of C-USA teams, but the future of the wide open East is unclear.

Remaining Games:

• Rice
• at Memphis
• Virginia Tech
• at Tulsa
• UAB
• Southern Miss

Best Case Scenario: 5-1. ECU’s defense could shut down most of the teams on their schedule, but I don’t see ECU taking down a top 10 Va Tech team, even at home.

Worst Case Scenario: 2-4. Depending on how the other teams in the league progress or fade, ECU could end the year with a four game losing streak.

Prediction:3-3.  Depending on exactly who they lose to, this would put them at 6-6 and probably 5-3 in the league.  Quite possible enough to go to a bowl, but 7-5 would improve their chances substantially.

The Memphis Tigers are no stranger to slow starts.  Starting in 2005, their 6 game records have been 3-3, 1-5, 2-4, and 3-3 [...]]]> The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well.  Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.

The Memphis Tigers are no stranger to slow starts.  Starting in 2005, their 6 game records have been 3-3, 1-5, 2-4, and 3-3 last year after a 0-3 start.  In every year except the 1-5 start, they’ve wound up in bowl games.  Now, they’re sitting at 2-4 but coming off a win against UTEP and hoping that’s the start of some momentum yet again.

• Wins: D. Their only wins are against 1-AA Tennessee Martin and the erratic UTEP team.  Losses to UCF and Middle Tennessee, neither of which looking like a stellar team, hurt.
• Offense:  D. The total offense isn’t horrendous, sitting 77th overall and 6th in the league with 352, but they’re not turning those yards into enough points- 95th nationally with only 22 ppg.
• Defense: D. Total defense is 105th, but scoring defense is a little bit better, 87th overall holding at 28 points per game.
• Special Teams: C. Punting is outstanding, netting 39 yards per punt (which explains how the scoring D can be better than the total D), but their own punt returns are an abysmal 3.1 yards.  Kickoff returns are near the national median.
• Turnovers: D. Memphis is -3, which is about where most 2-4 teams would be.
• Grading Curve: Points off. Sagarin puts Memphis’ schedule at #120, suggesting that 2-4 against a pretty weak group of teams suggests things are not good in Elvis country.
• Final Grade: D. Memphis just isn’t getting the job done against average competition, although the UTEP game gives a glimmer of hope.

Remaining Games:

• at Southern Mississippi
• East Carolina
• at Tennessee
• UAB
• at Houston
• at Tulsa

Best Case Scenario:3-3. There are teams on the schedule that Memphis has caused problems for in the past, and teams that are capable of overlooking the Tigers.

Worst Case Scenario: 0-6. Every team left on the list has had a better start than Memphis, and the Tigers will probably not be favored in any of their remaining games.

Prediction: 1-5. I’m not the first person to declare Memphis DOA, and they’ve come back from the dead too many times for this to be a smart pick, but I just don’t think they have more than one surprise in them this fall.  Look for a new coaching regime there in 2010.