The Sun Belt has their first league game on Saturday, and two of the schools are just now starting their seasons. Nobody gets a week off and everybody plays on Saturday, so here’s what to look for (all times Eastern, lines as of Thursday morning on Vegas.com).
12:00 PM, ESPNU- Florida Atlantic at Michigan State (Detroit): The Owls head north again, a bit farther this time, after last Thursday’s big upset over UAB. Their offensive attack looked good in Birmingham, but a Big 10 defense is going to be a big step up in competition. Line: Michigan State by 28. I think the Spartans will win comfortably, but Western Michigan did put up 14 on them. I see this one going more like 31-10.
3:30 PM, CSS/Regional TV- Arkansas State at Louisiana: Arkansas State is coming off a good offensive performance against Auburn, while both teams allowed over 50 to SEC schools last week. This one may come down to which team’s defense comes to life this week. Line: Louisiana by 2. Games against bigger and better schools are really not a good place to judge a team, but the Red Wolves still looked the better last week. So I think they win this outright, 34-24.
7:00 PM- Rice at North Texas: Rice put up a fight in their loss to the Longhorns last week, and North Texas did keep Clemson to 35, so…I have no idea. I’m inclined to think Rice does have more talent, but they’re not so much better that North Texas can’t pull an upset on its home field. Line: North Texas by 2.5. I don’t check the line until I get to this point in each blurb, and I’m a bit floored that the Mean Green is favored over anybody. So I guess picking Rice is the upset call, but I think they win on the order of 24-17.
7:00 PM- Austin Peay (FCS) at Middle Tennessee State: The Austin Peay Governors were 4-7 last year, but beat Cumberland 38-6 last week. MTSU is still without Dwight Dasher but expects a ruling on his status soon. The trend lately has been 2-4 week suspensions, so they have hope of getting him back for the bulk of their season. They should be able to beat an FCS opponent without him. No line.
7:00 PM- Troy at Oklahoma State: Troy got a nice win over Bowling Green to get things started, but they now come up against a Cowboys team that blew out BCS Washington State 65-17 last week. When they met in 2008, a championship season for Troy, OSU won 55-28. This could be a tough afternoon for the Trojans. Line: Oklahoma State by 13.5. Last week I got a lot of these big lines wrong, but even so, I feel comfortable picking the Cowboys to cover that one by plenty. Something like 48-13.
7:00 PM, FSS/Sun- ULM at Arkansas: The WarHawks had week 1 off, so we have nothing to base any predictions on. Arkansas did dispatch Tennessee Tech 44-3, however. Line: Arkansas by 34. I got burned by Louisiana on a number like this last week, but that’s still a lot of points. However, they did beat Troy and Western Michigan by 36 last year, so the staff isn’t afraid of running away with one, and I think they will again, 45-10.
7:30 PM, CSS- Western Kentucky at Kentucky: Western does not have a FCS tune-up this year, just four BCS league slayings (probably). Kentucky beat them 41-3 in 2008, so don’t look for much mercy from their in-state “rivals.” Line: Kentucky by 24.5. That doesn’t seem like enough to me, this one is probably more like 42-10.
8:00 PM, SNY/PPV- Rutgers at FIU: Rutgers returns to Florida for their second time in 10 months after finishing last year at the St. Pete Bowl. They were 3-0 against Florida teams, including a 23-15 win over FIU in Jersey last year. This is a big game for the Panthers, and they’ve been preparing for it for a long time. Line: Rutgers by 19.5. Rutgers can be explosive when they want to be, but they’re prone to overlooking these small schools. Not enough to get beat, but FIU could keep it to 14 or 17. I’ll say it goes to Rutgers 34-17.