Until about a week ago, the Sun Belt looked like it belonged to Middle Tennessee State. Then it was discovered that star QB Dwight Dasher had taken a $1500 loan from a known gambler, lost it in a poker game, and failed to pay it back. He’s now been ruled ineligible by the NCAA and will be out at least 2-3 games depending on the success of MTSU’s appeals.
All is not lost for the Blue Raiders, as they have two experienced JuCo quarterbacks ready to go behind Dasher, and a talented backfield, so the suspension isn’t going to turn MTSU into Western Kentucky overnight, but it does close the gap back to the rest of the league. It does, however, diminish their chances for a big non-conference win.
Chasing down the Blue Raiders will be the Troy Trojans, who have shared or won the league outright each of the last three years, but face a big rebuilding project this year. Louisiana too will be a contender, with a lot of players returning from last year’s 6-6 club.
Key Sun Belt Games
Non-Conference
Minnesota at Middle Tennessee- September 2- The loss of Dasher is a big setback for MTSU’s chances of the upset, but it also means that Minnesota has less material to prepare with since they’ll face quarterbacks who haven’t played for the Blue Raiders yet. If MTSU can dig up a win, then they’ll have to feel like they’re still on track for a special season.
Troy at UAB- September 18- Troy starts off with a MAC opponent then Oklahoma State, but this is the next chapter in a growing rivalry with the only other non-BCS school in the state. Troy won it last year, but now we have two programs that are both replacing a lot of components. This week 3 challenge will be important to both schools before conference play ramps up
Middle Tennessee at Georgia Tech- October 16- Almost certainly the best team that MTSU will face, and if they don’t have Dwight Dasher to keep Tech off balance by then, it might not go well. Even if they do, Tech’s triple option is a tough scheme to break up, especially for smaller schools.
Louisiana at Ohio- October 30- Louisiana looks primed for a breakout year in the Sun Belt, but to get to bowl eligibility they may need to grab a win out of conference. Ohio is a solid program and this should be a quality non-conference game between good non-BCS teams.
Conference Play
The Sun Belt conference schedule is the reverse of most leagues, presumably by coincidence. The round-robin among the three favorites will be over by week 7- after that, it becomes a matter of who gets tripped up by the rest of the league.
Middle Tennessee at Louisiana- September 25- MTSU opens conference play here in week four, and by this point they should know the final status of Dasher. If they don’t have him, this is where they’ll find out if they’re still going to be the team to beat in the Belt.
Troy at Middle Tennessee- October 5- 2009′s 1 & 2 face off on a Tuesday night this year for what should be command of the conference. It is early in the season, so there’s a long way to go no matter who wins.
Louisiana at Troy- October 16- By this point in the year, the two teams will know what they have and get one last chance to show it off against the best in the league (depending on who else emerges, of course). If MTSU does fall away, this might be the clash for the league championship.
North Texas at Western Kentucky- October 30- Western Kentucky still hasn’t claimed a win as a FBS school, and the nonconference schedule doesn’t help much- four BCS league teams. I have said that North Texas should be improved this year, but still may be the lowest rated team that WKU is going to get at home. Both squads may be desperately looking for a win in what may be rough seasons for both.
Predictions
I will once again attempt to predict the final conference records across the league. I did try to guess at each league game to get here, so the numbers better add up. You probably won’t like them, but don’t worry- they’re almost certainly wrong. We’ll check back on them at the end of the year. Maybe.
I am banking somewhat on MTSU getting Dasher back after a few weeks of suspension time. If he’s not back, there’s no telling what they’ll put on the field over the long haul.
Middle Tennessee State 8-0
Louisiana 7-1
Troy 6-2
Florida International 4-4
Arkansas State 4-4
ULM 3-5
FAU 3-5
North Texas 1-7
Western Kentucky 0-8
As usual, I offer my 100% guarantee that these are wrong somehow or another. I will be surprised if WKU really goes 0-12 again, but they’ll have to pull an upset to get that win. And picking Troy to drop to third in a league they’ve owned for so long is probably dumb, but it has to happen some day. Either way, I think this is shaping up to be a very entertaining Sun Belt season.