The Mountain West Conference has been rocked by realignment in the last six months, both coming and going. Boise State joined up and, for a brief moment, it seemed like a BCS autobid might be in the cards. Then Utah bowed out, heading to join the Pac-Whatever with Colorado. Now, being formally announced as I write this, BYU has made it official that they will be independent next year. We know that Fresno State & Nevada are coming along shortly as well, but they certainly aren’t BYU & Utah. The MWC is now at a somewhat clunky 10 teams, so the question is whether or not they’ll move to find two more or adopt a nine game schedule.
For 2010, however, everybody’s still hunting for the last MWC championship in the BYU/Utah Era. TCU has the target on its back, after sweeping the league last year and earning an invite to the Fiesta Bowl. They’re stacked again this year and the consensus league favorite. Highly rated Utah will be challenger #1, and all eyes will be on their stadium when TCU visits on November 6. BYU can never be counted out, but a rebuilding process looks to have them a step below the top two this year. Air Force has lost a lot of players, but the skill guys are back and they’re looking to supplant BYU in the top echelon.
Key Mountain West Games
Non-Conference
Pitt at Utah- September 2- The first of a pair of monster opening weekend games in the MWC, Pitt comes in as a favorite to win the Big East, like they did when Utah & Pitt faced off in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl, their only other meeting.
Oregon State at TCU- September 4- The other half of the big opening weekend for the league, Oregon State comes to Jerryworld to face TCU. This one is crucial for TCU for two reasons- obviously, they need to win to establish their place in the national title hunt, but also, Oregon State is the only common opponent they share with Boise State, and if both teams run the table they may be vying for one slot in the title game or perhaps the Rose Bowl.
BYU at Florida State- September 18- It seems that BYU and Florida State passed each other on an escalator last year, FSU going up and BYU the other direction. BYU would like to take revenge on the thorough beating that the Seminoles delivered in Provo last year, but that could be tough with the current goings on at both schools.
Utah at Notre Dame- November 13- If Utah survives TCU (below), this game against Notre Dame could be their ticket to a national title game, as they would have wins against the Big East and Big 12 (Iowa State) on their resume to go with their hypothetical conference title. But even without all that, it’s another chance to establish their own national legitimacy before joining the BCS league next year.
Conference Play
BYU at Air Force- September 11- Air Force’s best chance to break into the MWC top three comes on week two, in what should be an emotional day at the Academy. As mentioned, Air Force isn’t returning as many players as they might prefer, but the key positions are intact and this game sets up very nicely, if it ever did.
And now, the usual round-robin in the existing big three..
TCU at BYU- October 16- The first big bump in TCU’s path, after Oregon State, is the week 7 date in Provo. TCU should be able to overpower the Cougars, but playing in Provo is never easy.
TCU at Utah- November 6- This is it, the final clash of the MWC Titans as we know it. This will by no means be a lock for TCU, and it’s very possible that both teams are undefeated at kickoff time.
Utah at BYU- And just like the TCU game, this is the end of an era, with both teams heading in separate directions. Logic suggests that they’ll start scheduling each other as non-conference games (for Utah anyway) soon, but it hasn’t been announced as far as I know. This rivalry has been heated lately, and this edition could be more intense than ever.
Predictions
One more time, I will attempt to predict the final conference records across the league. I did try to guess at each league game to get here, so the numbers better add up. You probably won’t like them, but don’t worry- they’re almost certainly wrong. We’ll check back on them at the end of the year. Maybe.
TCU 8-0
Utah 7-1
Air Force 6-2
BYU 5-3
Wyoming 4-4
San Diego State 3-5
Colorado State 2-6
UNLV 1-7
New Mexico 0-8
As usual, this will certainly be wrong. I do think Air Force can and will beat BYU, but I can also see a team like Wyoming or SDSU giving them a tough game and scrambling my standings. Either way, it’s all eyes on TCU & Utah as they sprint toward a possible chance at a national title.