Yesterday was the most insane day of college football not involving actual college football in a very long time. While the two moves this summer were important, they were neither surprising nor terribly traumatic for any conference involved. The events of yesterday will have a much more profound impact on the non-BCS leagues we know and love. First, a recap in case you’ve missed anything, then a bit of analysis.
The Opening Salvo
Word leaked that BYU was considering going independent in football, primarily to rake in TV money on their own, and the rest of their sports would move back to the WAC.
This led to a twitter-wide consensus that the MWC was doomed, and I was planning a post this morning on how to split the remaining MWC teams between C-USA and the WAC.
However, it’s important to note that BYU has not announced anything as of 7:30 Eastern Time today.
The Mountain West Responds
Actually, if you ask them, it’s just a coincidence, but after what appear to be a whirlwind 36 hours of negotiations, the Mountain West invited Fresno State and Nevada to join the league. Both accepted in simultaneous press conferences at 9:30 ET last night.
MWC Commissioner Craig Thompson held a press teleconference at 10:15, where he hit on a couple of points- he does not know what BYUs intentions are right now, but they participated in, and voted on, the discussions about and with Fresno & Nevada. Further, he kept hammering that the move was made in order to make the league better and tried really hard to convince everybody that it had nothing to do with BYUs rumblings. Last, he was asked several times about more expansion, which he sounded like would be a substantial possibility.
The Arrangement Right Now
Once the moves are finalized, probably in 2011 but possibly not until 2012:
MWC:
- Air Force
- BYU
- Colorado State
- New Mexico
- San Diego State
- TCU
- UNLV
- Wyoming
- Boise State
- Fresno State
- Nevada
WAC:
- Hawaii
- Idaho
- Louisiana Tech
- New Mexico State
- San Jose State
- Utah State
What Will Happen Next
If you’re one who hates hypothetical blog posts, it’s time to disembark. More season previews in a couple hours.
Nobody knows, obviously, but it hinges on two things- what will BYU do, and then what will the MWC do?
If BYU goes independent I still think the MWC goes to 12. I think their first two choices will be Houston and UTEP, but I’m not sure either of those teams is really desperate to move out of C-USA. Neither helps their BCS credentials more than losing BYU hurts them- Houston’s last four seasons are 10-4, 8-5, 8-5, 10-4, which is good but not on the level of the elite teams in the MWC right now. UTEP makes a lot of sense geographically and has the pieces in place to be a mid-level MWC team. I think Idaho is next in line- a rival and travel partner for Boise State, and the most appealing team left in the region. Hawaii is only a few years removed from being a BCS team, but I can’t see any conference wanting to commit to sending their teams out there so often, especially right now. After that, if they still have openings, they may look at another Texas C-USA school- Rice has a lot of academic credentials, or SMU, a cross-town rival for TCU.
So, if the MWC is successful in luring away a C-USA team or two, I think the first wave of WAC refugees winds up on their shores. Louisiana Tech is a natural fit geographically, and if UTEP is still around then New Mexico State is an appealing rival and travel partner on the western edge of the conference footprint. Utah State could also be considered close enough to add in.
If BYU stays, it’s pretty much the same as what I wrote, but with only one opening available, it diminishes the chances of Idaho grabbing on and means less space for someone else in C-USA.
If the MWC doesn’t expand further, then the WAC still has it’s six members, which may be enough to expand on. They might try to steal some C-USA teams, but there’s really no good reason to leave one for the other- fewer bowls, longer travel (except perhaps UTEP), late night West Coast games, etc. The talk is that the WAC may reach into the 1-AA ranks to reload, and that may be what they have to do to survive. I don’t know nearly enough about the 1-AA situations to comment, but it seems like the Big Sky has a footprint suitable for raiding.
If the WAC dissolves, I think C-USA might be interested to expanding to sixteen, most logically picking up Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, Utah State, and then either Idaho or San Jose State. A couple of current C-USA West teams would need to switch to the east (Tulane, maybe one of the teams in Houston) and you have two eight team divisions. Better yet, steal the rumored SEC idea, build 4 x 4 team divisions and have a conference semi-final.
Hawaii is completely stuck. I actually think they could make it as an independent for a while, at least in football. Teams get pretty excited for away games there, plus the NCAA 13 game rule makes scheduling trips out there even more attractive. No idea what could happen to the other sports, probably line up with a smaller basketball oriented conference.
My Picks For An Ideal Realignment Right Now
Setting aside political rivalries that might be roadblocks to some of this stuff.
BYU: Independent. Don’t let the door hit you etc etc
Mountain West: Two divisions of six, with your two powers separated and hoping for a big title game.
Mountain West uh…West:
I looked at a north-south thing, but it didn’t work with natural rivalries and whatnot.
- Idaho
- Boise State
- Fresno State
- Nevada
- UNLV
- San Diego State
Mountain West East…or Mountain…or something
- Wyoming
- Colorado State
- Air Force
- UTEP
- New Mexico
- TCU
Conference USA West
- Houston
- Rice
- SMU
- Tulsa
- New Mexico State
- Utah State
- San Jose State
- Hawaii
Conference USA East
- Marshall
- Memphis
- East Carolina
- UAB
- UCF
- Southern Miss
- Tulane
- Louisiana Tech
It almost works. I think the biggest opponents would be your C-USA West teams, whose division doesn’t get much stronger but they now have to go to Hawaii every other year. This is part of why a 4×4 rotation might be better, but that’s an even more unlikely development so I’m not going to try to think through the scheduling challenges THAT would create. In the above mess, if BYU stays in the MWC, UTEP or even Idaho takes Hawaii’s spot in CUSA West and Hawaii is independent.
This will undoubtedly be blown to crap by some unforeseen development in the next few hours, but it was fun. It’s 6AM in Provo right now, buckle up.