Conference Previews: The WAC

For all we know, this could be the last Western Athletic Conference preview ever.  Probably not, but they’re on very shaky ground right now.  As it stands, they plan to keep Fresno State and Nevada around through the 2011 season, meaning that next year they should operate as an 8 team conference with Boise’s departure to the Mountain West happening next summer.

Once Fresno & Nevada are gone, the WAC is down to six.  Louisiana Tech is supposedly investigating/evaluating/begging a spot in C-USA or the Sun Belt, which would put them a lot closer to their competition, Utah State apparently wants into the MWC, and Hawaii has rumbled about going independent.  The transition time from FCS up to FBS is at least two years, so even if they protect the six they have and add two or three from below, 2012 could be a limbo year.  The NCAA may grant a waiver and allow them to compete with just six during this process, but there’s a lot still up in the air.

BYU’s decision on their independence is due tomorrow, which could have a lot to do with the WAC’s future stability.

But enough about all that, we have 2010 to think about.  Obviously storyline 1A is Boise State.  #5 in the Coaches Poll (the one that matters for the BCS), one of the dominant national preseason stories has been whether they can, or should, get a spot in the title game if they run the table.  While the question of ‘should’ can be endlessly debated, our coverage at the site will mostly focus on the ‘can,’ assuming they beat Virginia Tech.  But not now, this is a conference preview.

If we acknowledge that Boise State should be favored to win the WAC comfortably, the real race is for second in the league.  Nevada lines up as the favorite for that role, as well as the WAC team with the best chance to disrupt Boise’s unbeaten streak.  Fresno State and Idaho should figure into the race for second as well.

Key WAC Games

Non-Conference

Cincinnati at Fresno State- September 4- Cincinnati comes in with a new coach and a little bit of rebuilding to do, but of course the Bulldogs are busy trying to replace Ryan Matthews, so their task is no easy one.  If Fresno steals this one, their stature going into WAC play gets a lot bigger.

Boise State at Virginia Tech- September 6- Obviously.  Va Tech is ranked 6th right now and the trip to muggy Washington DC in late summer is going to be unlike any other game they’ll play this year.  Boise State has the talent to win, but there are more than the usual obstacles to overcome.

Hawaii at Army- September 11- This is going to be an interesting day, the first time the date has landed on a Saturday since 2004.  Any of the games involving the military academies should be fascinating to watch.

Oregon State at Boise State- September 25- Boise needs Oregon State to be good, then of course they need to beat them.  But if Boise loses to Virginia Tech, this game is merely a blip on the national radar.

Nevada at BYU- September 25- BYU’s independence soap opera nearly wrecked the MWC and might still wreck the WAC, but this game is a good one by itself- can a very strong Nevada team march into Provo and knock off a rebuilding BYU?  The Wolf Pack has three games against MWC competition, but this one is the jewel they want to claim before joining the conference.

Illinois at Fresno State- December 3- Way down at the end of the year, Fresno gets their return game after beating Illinois on their turf last December.  This game may not have a big impact on the bowl picture, but Fresno has three chances to nab a BCS league win this year, and Illinois could be their best shot again.

Conference Games

More so than the MAC we previewed before, the WAC schedule is heavily back-loaded.  The top three should all be 5-0 in the league before any of them face each other, which definitely sets up for a dramatic finish.

Nevada at Idaho- November 6- Idaho has an offense that might be able to keep pace with the Wolf Pack for a while and make a game out of this one.  Neither side has much of a defense, as evidenced by last year’s 70-45 track meet.  This one will kick off the late-season round robin of WAC powers.

Boise State at Idaho- November 12- Idaho fans don’t care much for Boise State, even before they Broncos bolted for the MWC, setting things in motion that, directly or not, have left Idaho in bad shape, conference-wise.  Add in Boise State’s presidents comments about Idaho fans- “nasty and inebriated,” were his words, and the Kibbie Dome is going to be a madhouse that Friday night.  I don’t know how many points pure hatred is worth, but we’ll find out.

Nevada at Fresno State- November 13- Unlike Idaho the week prior, Fresno State will have something of a defense to make things difficult for Nevada, but the question will be whether the Bulldogs can put up enough points either way.

Boise State at Nevada- November 26- In all likelihood, this is the WAC championship game for the second year in a row.  If Boise State made it through September unbeaten, then Nevada is the last team that has a reasonable chance to derail a possible run at national glory.  It’s in Reno, too.  Could be a classic (which BCS hacks will then use against Boise State).

Predictions

I will now attempt to predict the final conference records across the league.  I did try to guess at each league game to get here, so the numbers better add up.  You probably won’t like them, but don’t worry- they’re almost certainly wrong.  We’ll check back on them at the end of the year.  Maybe.

Boise State 8-0
Nevada 7-1
Fresno State 6-2
Idaho 5-3
Utah State 4-4
Louisiana Tech 3-5
Hawaii 2-6
New Mexico State 1-7
San Jose State 0-8

Obviously, these are going to be way wrong, because it’s incredibly rare for the games to play out in such a neat manner (although it did happen in the MWC last year). There will be upsets, somebody from the bottom will be better than I think and someone in that top half will underperform. But it probably won’t be Boise State, who should claim their final WAC championship.