The team previews are done, so we’re zooming out a level to look at each conference as a whole, and we’re doing it fast- football is very nearly upon us.
The Mid-American Conference had what might have been a bit of a breakout year in 2009. Both division races went down to the last two weeks, with the East not being decided until the MAC’s now-traditional Thanksgiving Friday season finales. But the football was exciting and competitive all through the season, the league showed up for two of the best bowl games of the year, and Central Michigan ended the year 23 & 24 in the polls.
For 2010, we have two clear favorites and a few question marks right behind them about who will emerge- and someone always does- to push the favorites right to the end of the season. In the West, Northern Illinois is loaded and ready to chase down their first conference championship since 1983. In the East, the resurgent Temple team looks to avenge their final-Friday loss to Ohio and take their place in the title game.
Stalking behind in the East will probably be last year’s top teams again, Ohio and Kent State. Ohio knocked off Temple to win the division last year, and Kent State was in the mix until they faded in the last quarter of the year. Out West, the challengers are not as clear, as Central Michigan is replacing a lot of talented players- and a coach, and it isn’t clear that teams like Western Michigan or Toledo are ready to get through the season on just 1 or 2 losses.
Key MAC Games
Early Season- Non-Conference
Northern Illinois at Iowa State- September 2 – The Huskies have a chance to make an opening night statement. More on this game Thursday.
Arizona at Toledo- September 3- Toledo gets a spot on a much less crowded Friday night to make some noise of their own.
Bowling Green at Troy- September 4- I’m not projecting Bowling Green to be very good this year, but they can start proving me wrong by beating a rebuilding Troy for the second year in a row (although it didn’t seem to help them last year).
Kent State at Boston College- September 11- KSU’s first big test and best chance to make a splash (Penn State follows) against a team with some national buzz.
Northern Illinois at Illinois- September 18- NIU has only played the Illini three times, and not since 2001. They’ve never won. Seems like a year that might change.
Central Michigan at Northwestern- September 25- CMU has claimed a Big 10 scalp in each of the last two years, and this will be their only chance this year. Can the new staff & team come together in time to pull it off?
Early Season- Conference Games
The MAC has to jump right in with conference play starting in week two for six teams, including a big one.
Central Michigan at Temple- September 9- A Thursday night showdown between two of last year’s powers, only a week into the season. Temple has to be the favorite here, but if Central Michigan pulls the upset or comes close, they’ll announce that they haven’t gone anywhere.
Temple at Northern Illinois- October 9- Things settle down a little after the second week, but in Week 6 they get serious again. Temple at NIU is the regular season game of the year, and NIU’s first real test in the MAC after a tough non-conference start. The winner here becomes favorite in the MAC Championship game, which could be a rematch of this showdown.
Akron at Kent State- October 9- Separated by only 12 miles, this rivalry game doomed KSU’s season last year. A vastly inferior Akron team shocked Kent State and the Flashes never recovered, losing their last two and missing out on bowl eligibility. KSU can’t lose this game this year and stay in the division race.
Late Season- Conference Games
As the season wears down, the favorites and the dark horses square off more often:
Central Michigan at Northern Illinois- October 23- Just two weeks after Temple’s visit, NIU has the de facto West Championships in their stadium. By this point, the Chippewas will know what team they have, and so will we, but for now a CMU win would be an upset.
Temple at Buffalo- October 23- I have Buffalo as a dark horse this year- I like their new coach and the talent they have, and they were a lot closer to being a contender last year than the results showed. This is a game Temple can’t overlook- Buffalo will be lucky to be better than 3-3 coming in, but they could be a late season surprise.
Western Michigan at Central Michigan- November 5- Western has been stuck in Central’s shadow for a few years now, and might have a chance to get the edge this year. They’ll have a Friday night stage to do it if they’re going to. It also could have division race and bowl eligibility implications for both sides.
Temple at Kent State- November 6- The East will be decided in the last three weeks of the season, as Temple will play the other two contenders in consecutive weeks, then they’ll face each other.
Ohio at Temple- November 16- Your rematch of the game that sent Ohio on to Detroit a year ago, this one on a Tuesday night instead of lost in the shuffle at the end of the year. This will be Ohio’s biggest test to this point- no NIU, no CMU, and Kent State is later.
Finale Friday
Ball State is the odd team out, and Temple faces Miami on the Tuesday night of this week to conclude their seasons, but the other 10 MAC teams finish it all together the day after Thanksgiving.
Buffalo at Akron- Buffalo should be better here, and if I’m right about them it could be the one that makes them bowl eligible.
Central Michigan at Toledo- Last year, Toledo was dangerous but not consistent enough to finish the season as a contender. This year, with some personnel losses, they’re probably a year away from being back near the top, but they could foul up CMU’s bid for postseason play on their way out.
Kent State at Ohio- Depending on how both teams fare against Temple, this game could decide the division or second place. Of course, if either team team picks up unexpected losses on the way, they may just be trying to play spoiler.
Predictions
I will now attempt to predict the final conference records across the league. I did try to guess at each league game to get here, so the numbers better add up. You probably won’t like them, but don’t worry- they’re almost certainly wrong. We’ll check back on them at the end of the year. Maybe.
MAC East
Temple 7-1
Ohio 7-1
Kent State 6-2
Buffalo 5-3
Miami 2-6
Akron 1-7
Bowling Green 1-7
MAC West
Northern Illinois 8-0
Central Michigan 6-2
Western Michigan 5-3
Toledo 3-5
Ball State 1-7
Eastern Michigan 0-8
So if you’re extrapolating at home, this means I’m predicting that NIU will beat Temple at home in week 6, and that Temple will beat Ohio to win the division by that tiebreaker in week 11 on that Tuesday night game. Ohio & Kent State play for second on the last day. This also means a Temple-NIU rematch in the championship game, which I’m going to predict that Temple will win, on account of a more challenging run up to the championship game than NIU will have (bye week, Ball State, Eastern Michigan). But that’s just a guess, obviously.