Conference USA has been featured in dozens of realignment rumors this summer, yet nothing has come to fruition. First was a rumor that Memphis and/or UCF and/or East Carolina were off to the Big East and it was a done deal. Nothing there. Then, with the MWC/WAC fallout was the rumor that Houston was gone to the Mountain West- nothing so far. There’s word that Louisiana Tech wants to join the league, but no indication that the league has any need for them. So, as of now, Conference USA looks exactly like it has since 2005.
Last year’s conference champs, East Carolina, have a new coach and lost a lot of their team over the offseason and look to be a dark horse at best in 2010. Meanwhile Houston, West division champs a year ago, is fully loaded and looks like they could make a splash nationally, and they assume the mantle of conference favorites. There will be no shortage of teams looking to take the Cougars down a notch, with UCF, Southern Miss, and SMU looking like the prime candidates to take their shot.
As a disclosure reminder, UCF is my alma mater and I am an unapologetic fan. I try to keep things objective here but I’m also sure that it doesn’t always work. I have no doubt that a USM alum might have my rankings reversed down there at the bottom.
Key C-USA Games
Non-Conference
Southern Miss at South Carolina- September 2- This game is, for all practical purposes, your national college football kickoff game. The Golden Eagles have some holes to fill and questions to answer, and they’ll have to get started against Steve Spurrier and a SC team with a lot of buzz behind them.
NC State at UCF- September 11- UCF is expecting big things this year, and a home game against a decent ACC team could be a big jumping off point. UCF won their last meeting in 2007, and UCF built off that momentum and won the conference title.
Houston at UCLA- September 18- Houston arguably has a more difficult non-conference schedule than Boise State or TCU, and winning a game out in Los Angeles would vault Houston into the polls and onto the edge of the national consciousness. That is, if anyone knows about it. Kickoff is at 10:30 Eastern.
Tulsa at Notre Dame- October 30- Tulsa has a break in the middle of conference play for a trip to South Bend. They won’t be favored, and they probably would have rather seen the Irish a year or two ago, but Tulsa heads up there after a bye week, and you never know what can happen with some rest and some luck.
Houston at Texas Tech- November 27- By this point, Houston should know where they stand nationally and in the conference. This game may fall between the last CUSA game and the conference title game, and if Tech is well regarded, could have huge national implications for the Cougars. There’s a long way to go, but Houston has a stronger finishing run than Boise State or TCU, and what you do in November has a lot to do with where you land in December or January.
Conference Games
Tulsa at East Carolina- September 5- East Carolina is into a building process and Tulsa is trying to bounce back from a disappointing 2009, so launching the season on ESPN Sunday afternoon is a bit of a tough spot for both teams. The winner does get to claim the conference lead for at least five days.
East Carolina at Southern Miss- October 9- Normally a late-season matchup, and often a division championship game, this will be Southern Miss’ chance to jump over their conference rival.
Houston at SMU- October 20- At the moment, SMU looks like the next-best team in the west, and a Wednesday night home game should have SMU as fired up as they’re gonna be. The winner here is obviously in the driver seat for the division title.
UCF at Houston- November 5- UCF fouled up a then one-loss Houston’s season last year with a stout defensive effort (as stout as allowing 32 points can be), but this year the game is in Texas and Houston will have revenge on their mind.
Southern Miss at UCF- November 13- Can you tell which teams I think are the ones to beat in CUSA this year? UCF has the good draw in the East this year, getting ECU and USM both at home. Southern Miss gets Houston the week after, so if Houston is better than both teams then this game is probably going to decide the East.
Predictions
I will now attempt to predict the final conference records across the league. I did try to guess at each league game to get here, so the numbers better add up. You probably won’t like them, but don’t worry- they’re almost certainly wrong. We’ll check back on them at the end of the year. Maybe.
C-USA East
UCF 7-1
Southern Miss 6-2
East Carolina 4-4
Marshall 4-4
UAB 1-7
Memphis 0-8
C-USA West
Houston 8-0
SMU 7-1
UTEP 5-3
Tulsa 4-4
Rice 2-6
Tulane 0-8
Am I wrong? Most certainly. May be overly harsh toward the teams at the bottom- both UAB and Rice could definitely win more, and for that matter so could Memphis or Tulane. And nobody has ever gone through C-USA unbeaten in the current arrangement, so Houston’s run is far from a lock.