The MAC Championship game is just hours away, set to kick off at 8 PM tonight on ESPN2. The conference has been flying under the radar this year for the most part, but suddenly they have a 10 win team and another 9 win team squaring off for the title, in what should be a very watchable matchup. The MAC game is again held at Ford Field, the indoor stadium home to the Detroit Lions. Central Michigan (10-2/8-0) is back in the title game for the third time in four years, after missing out a year ago. CMU won the game in 2006 and 2007. This is the first appearance for Ohio (9-3/7-1) since 2006, their only other title game to date.
Storylines
For Central Michigan, you’ll be hearing a lot about Senior QB Dan LeFevour. He currently sits 2nd on the active career passing yardage list, behind some guy named Colt from Texas, but is also ranked 18th on the active career rushing yardage list too- the highest ranked QB of only two on that list. In total, he is in first place in the individual total offense active list, well ahead of McCoy overall. This is his last conference game, and his biggest spotlight of the season, at least since they beat Michigan State in the early going. If the game does get out of hand and the commentators are forced to talk about other things, they’ll probably discuss his draft chances before moving quickly on to the SEC or Big 12 games.
Ohio’s story will focus on coach Frank Solich, last remembered by the general public as getting fired by Nebraska after an 8-3 season. Since then, he’s worked toward making Ohio a consistent contender in the MAC, and while they did win the East back in ’06, it’s been a bit up and down. Still, the team has bounced back from a 4-8 season last year, and this is the second 9 win season under Solich, something they hadn’t had otherwise since 1968.
Strengths
Central Michigan’s biggest strength is its overall balance. LeFevour is arguably the most potent dual-threat quarterback at both skills in the game, meaning that the Chippewas can beat you whichever way they have to. Their scoring offense led the MAC and ranked 14th nationally, but their defense was just as stout, also leading the conference in scoring defense. A team that scores like crazy and won’t let you score is very tough to beat, as 8 MAC teams have already found out.
Meanwhile, Ohio’s defense is quite good in its own right. Top 5 in the league in every major category, first in pass efficiency defense, and 34th in the country in points allowed. They also lead the conference in turnover margin, which they may need to help out tonight.
Weaknesses
It’s difficult to pin down much of a weakness on the Central Michigan side. It could be argued that their defense isn’t very aggressive, ranked quite low in sacks and tackles for loss, and that their kick return game isn’t very good, but neither has slowed them much this year. Otherwise, they are ranked in the top 50 nationally in every major statistic (and most minor ones).
Ohio is going to have to lean on their defense heavily to win this one, because their offense is just not as good. The good news is that they’ve come alive lately, closing out the year with three games scoring 27 or more against good MAC teams, including 35 to shut Temple out of the title game. And while the attack is balanced and scores points when they need to, they just don’t have the firepower that Central Michigan has.
Prediction
I really think this game has the potential to be a great one. Central Michigan is a great team, and Ohio is really peaking at the right time. I think it will be fairly high scoring but still come down to defensive success in the second half. On paper, Central Michigan has the edge, but I really like the way Ohio is playing right now.
I think this one probably goes down 28-24 for Central Michigan, but I would not be at all surprised to see it go the other way.