We’ve made it through 12 games in 13 weeks and now it’s time to put a bow on the 2009 season in C-USA and the MAC. The MAC preview is coming this afternoon, to get you ready for tonight’s game. The Conference USA Championship Game kicks off at noon Saturday on ESPN2. The Houston Cougars (10-2/6-2) come to Greenville, NC to take on the East Carolina Pirates (8-4/7-1). The Pirates host the game on account of a better record in league play, despite Houston’s better record overall. The teams did not meet in the regular season.
Storylines
Houston’s story has been pretty well documented- wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech vaulted them into the top 25, only to lose to UTEP, perhaps the most inconsistent team in the league. They got back on track by beating Mississippi State and only lost once more, on the road at UCF. They come into the weekend ranked 21st and are hoping to see QB Case Keenum get a trip to New York for the Heisman ceremony.
East Carolina has had a lower profile this year than they usually do. Rarely does a year go by without a signature win for the Pirates over one of their regional rivals, but this year they lost to West Virginia, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech. Their only conference loss was on the road at Southern Methodist, a 28-21 affair. Their coach, Skip Holtz, is a rising start and his name has even come across in at least one rumor tied to Notre Dame. Expect to hear the name in conjunction with several jobs as they start to break open at the more mid-level BCS schools.
Strengths
Houston’s strength is a good one- the top ranked offense in America. The Cougars lead in Passing, Scoring, and Total Offense categories, and have not been held to less than 29 all season. Their scores have been in the 30s only three times, the 40s four times, the 50s three, and they hung 73 on Rice last weekend. Keenum gets the ball to his teammates quickly and generously, with four players on the squad catching between 4 and 8 balls per game. I have seen Houston play in person, and their preferred style is short-to-medium passes and then piling on the yards after the catch, which is often easy to do against C-USA defenses. The long ball is available when they need it, but their cutthroat efficiency at the medium sized plays has gotten the job done most of the year.
Meanwhile, if East Carolina is going to win this game, it’s going to be with their defense. They rank at or near the top of the conference in most of the defensive categories, and their scoring defense is ranked 31st in the country, despite a difficult slate in the early going. Unfortunately, their pass defense is the weaker element of that side of the ball, although they still rank no worse than 4th in the conference.
Weaknesses
The weaknesses are essentially the reverse of the strengths, which is convenient and should make for a competitive game. While Houston’s offense is spectacular, their defense is really bad. The Cougars rank 110th nationally (yet just 8th in the conference) in total defense, which is partly to blame on the offense scoring quickly and leaving the defense on the field all day. And therein lies the keys to beating the Cougars- keeping Case Keenum on the sidelines. By limiting Houston’s time of possession and making the most of opportunities, a team can keep the game close into the closing minutes and see what happens.
On the ECU side, their offense has not been entirely up to par. It has been good enough for most teams in the conference, but we’ve seen that they don’t have the guns to keep up with the BCS teams they’ve seen this year. Now, they’re not as bad as Houston’s defense is, but against their six best opponents, their scores haven’t been enough- 20 against WV, 17 at UNC, 19 when UCF came to town, 21 against SMU, only 3 at home with Virginia Tech, and 25 last week against Southern Mississippi. As we’ve seen, none of those scores would beat Houston on their worst day. The offense is going to have to break through to win this week.
Prediction
East Carolina can win this game, but they’re going to have to play out of their minds to do it. The teams are #1 and #3 in turnover margin (Houston being the conference leader), so that may be what it comes down to. ECU will have to make the most of every opportunity, because Houston has shown time and time again that they will.
In the end, I just don’t think ECU can be counted on to score enough. Houston won’t run wild on them, but I see a 35-25 win for the Cougars.