Bowl Projections! Week 9

This may or may not be a weekly thing from here on, but why not have a look at the bowl games that each league is affiliated with, and try to guess who’s going where?

BCS Bowls

This year’s selection procedure goes Orange, Fiesta, then Sugar.  Right now, looking at the trends, I think TCU is going to get the automatic spot and Boise State still has a shot to join them, but needs Notre Dame to lose at least one more game- a 10 win Notre Dame team will get picked before Boise, sad though it is- it’s a business proposition.  If not, though, it’s hard to find a full ten teams that should go in before Boise- not that it’s impossible.

Sugar- TCU vs. SEC runner up

Fiesta- Boise State vs. Iowa or Penn State, since I’m not seeing a second Big 12 team making the cut.

I know this is a risk, but I’m basing the following on Wikipedia’s listing of bowl ties.  Probably a bad idea.  All bowls in each conference are listed in the order of selection.  I’m including the ones that hinge on other leagues coming up short, but I don’t follow groups like the ACC or Big 12 close enough to know what the odds really are that they happen.

Conference USA

Liberty- Houston.  Don’t think there’s enough momentum for UH to make the BCS unless both teams above lose.

Hawaii- SMU.  The return of June Jones to Honolulu.

Armed Forces (Ft. Worth, TX)- Southern Mississippi- The West is looking a little short on eligible teams, so I think the Armed Forces takes a fairly nearby East team this year.

New Orleans-Marshall.  Marshall isn’t a perfect fit for any of the bowls this year, and they may only be 6-6, so they could fall to the New Orleans game.

St. Petersburg – UCF.  Just two hours up the road, and UCF travels pretty well overall.

EagleBank (Washington, DC)- (dependent on Army not getting eligible.  Army is currently 3-5.) East Carolina.  I saw an ECU fan say they’re about 5 hours from DC, and it’s a good fit there.

Texas (Houston, TX)- (dependent on the Big 12 running out of teams) Tough to call- maybe Tulsa, maybe UTEP, maybe nobody.  I currently don’t think Tulsa will be bowl eligible, and UTEP has to come back from 3-5 to get there, so this one may slip through C-USA’s fingers and just go out at-large.

Mid-American

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl (Detroit, formerly Motor City Bowl) – Central Michigan.  The bowl folks have to be quietly rooting for the Michigan team, not the Philadelphia team, to win the title, although they’re not even required to take the league champion.

GMAC Bowl (Mobile, AL)- Temple.  Mobile is a strange location for a MAC bowl game, so there’s no obvious travel choice that the GMAC would rather take over the Owls, so I think that’s their pick.  It’ll be good exposure in light of Temple’s turnaround.

International (Toronto)- Bowling Green.  I’m predicting that BGSU wins out, which puts them 2nd or so in the East, and they’ll do it with a top 10 passing offense that looks good on TV.

EagleBank- (dependent on the ACC not getting 9 teams- it’s close right now)- Northern Illinois, who should be #2 in the West and is on TV often enough that they’re a familiar name.  I would imagine that they’d actually prefer to get Temple there, but I don’t know how open the GMAC would be to any backroom dealing.  Incidentally, I think ECU vs. NIU would be a pretty compelling game there, if the ACC does come up short.

Mountain West

As mentioned, I think TCU is Sugar Bowl bound.

Las Vegas- Utah.  Both BYU and Utah travel well, but BYU has played there 4 years in a row.  Plus, it’s looking like Utah could be favored in their game in a couple weeks.

Poinsettia (San Deigo)- BYU.  Travel amazingly well, and I think they’ll be energized by a new destination too.

Armed Forces- Air Force.  An easy selection, although they did play there in 07 and 08, I think they’ll want them again anyway.  It should be noted that this and the NM bowl are 3rd and 4th but in no particular order.

New Mexico (Albuquerque)- Wyoming.  It’s not a terribly far trip from one to the other- just across Colorado.  However, if the Armed Forces does decide to pass on a 3rd straight AFA appearance, it’s perfect for New Mexico.

Humanitarian (Boise, ID)- San Diego State.  SDSU or Wyoming will benefit greatly from TCU clearing out a bowl and adding the extra one for the #6 MWC team.  The Boise Bowl might rather have Wyoming, but I think NM will grab them up.  These two teams really could go to either one.

Sun Belt

New Orleans- Troy.  Troy’s in the driver seat for the conference title, which is currently locked directly to the N.O. Bowl.

The Sun Belt has deals with the St. Pete, Papa Johns, and Independence bowls if any of those three come up short from their first-choice conferences.

St. Petersburg- depends on the Big East coming up short, which may be unlikely since the BE is only going to send one team to the BCS.  I think Middle Tennessee State is probably the pick if the BE empties out too soon.

Papajohns.com (Birmingham, AL) – Big East #6 & SEC #9, so it’s actually a little more probable than St. Pete.  I also think Middle Tennessee is a perfect fit for this one, just 3 hours up the road.

Independence (Shreveport, LA)- Big 12 #7 and SEC #8.  If this spot comes open, it should go to Lousiana Monroe, although Lafayette may be bowl eligible too.

Last year, the Sun Belt was able to fill a few other holes as at-large bids, this could be the case again if these three don’t open up.

Western Athletic

As noted, I am tentatively thinking that Boise is going to get into the Fiesta. But just in case, I’m going to double up my WAC predictions.

Humanitarian- Boise to BCS: Idaho.  The Humanitarian would LOVE to have a nearby team in a year where they don’t get Boise.  Boise not in BCS: Boise State.

New Mexico- I think it’s Nevada either way.  Nevada will probably finish ahead of Idaho in the final standings anyway, and they’re at least a little closer (albeit not very close) to Albuquerque.

Hawaii- Normally takes Hawaii if they’re eligible, but that’s not looking likely.  Boise to BCS: Fresno State.  Boise not in BCS: Idaho.  The H-Bowl has a tendency to like taking teams that haven’t been bowling in a while, and Idaho fits that mold nicely.

Poinsettia- (dependent on the Pac 10 not having 6 teams) Fresno State or nobody.  It’s looking like the WAC is only going to come up with four eligible teams this year.

I do think that Fresno will find a bowl home, even if it’s not in the Poinsettia.  They’re a nationally known mid-major name that almost any bowl would be happy to fill a gap with.

As always, comments are welcome- where are you hoping your team winds up?  What do you think the chances are that Boise does get into the BCS alongside TCU?