Bowl Projections, Week 12

I haven’t made this weekly, since things haven’t changed that fast in the conference landscapes, but now I think we’re ready to have another look.  Bowls are listed in the approximate order of selection again, but in some conferences this is not a specific pick.  I’m also making guesses as to the reps from the big leagues, but those are harder since I don’t know as much about the politics involved in each of the big 6.

BCS Bowls

The BCS picture still isn’t great for Boise State.  With TCU and the SEC runner up basically locked in, they’re still competing for one of two remaining spots.  It’s looking like the leading candidates for those spots are either Iowa or Penn State, the Broncos, and now Oklahoma State, if they overcome Oklahoma in Norman this weekend.  Two spots for three teams is better than what BSU was looking at before, but if it all comes down to a business decision, they could the third team on the list of two.

Sugar- TCU vs. SEC runner up

Fiesta- Boise State vs. Iowa or Penn State.  Boise fans have to be hoping/praying/begging for the Sooners to step up this weekend.

Conference USA

C-USA, as I understand it, operates a little differently from some of the other leagues- after the Liberty Bowl makes its pick, the league office actually assigns teams to the other bowls in cooperation with bowl leadership, so the order of selection from Hawaii to St. Pete is a little less clear.  The bowls below there, however, get lesser picks since they’re conditional.

Liberty- Houston vs. Arkansas in an old Southwest Conference reunion.

Hawaii- SMU vs. Fresno or Idaho (read on).

Armed Forces (Ft. Worth, TX)- Southern Mississippi vs. Air Force.  Only two bowl-eligible teams coming out of CUSA West this year, and USM is the westernmost team in the East division.

New Orleans- East Carolina vs. Troy – word is that the N.O. Bowl would rather have a team from farther away this year, since the Southern Miss crowd just comes for the day, and they’d like to grab a team that will stick around and spend some money in the city.  Eaglebank would probably like to have ECU, but they may not have the option.

St. Petersburg – UCF vs. Connecticut.  There’s some buzz for a UCF vs. USF matchup, but I think USF will get picked higher in the Big East shuffle- the St. Pete bowl is 6th in line, and they also had USF there last year.

EagleBank (Washington, DC)- Marshall vs. Bowling Green.  At least one of the EagleBank bids is going to have to be conditional, or just delayed, because it could go to Army if they upset Navy in a strangely scheduled December 12 game.  The MAC does not have any official tie to the bowl this year, and since the ACC can’t fill it’s spot, that position will go to CUSA, so some team will get invited quickly but probably not know who the other side is going to be for another week.

Texas (Houston, TX)- The Big 12 will fill its spot here, and CUSA is out of teams unless UAB beats UCF this weekend, so it’s a bit moot.  Look for Texas A&M vs. Navy.

Mid-American

The MAC also seems to have some control over which team goes where, although I can’t say I completely understand their system.

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl (Detroit, formerly Motor City Bowl) – Central Michigan vs Minnesota.  This would be a great matchup for the bowl, with both teams within at least a long days drive of Detroit.

GMAC Bowl (Mobile, AL)- Northern Illinois vs. Middle Tennessee State – I now think Temple will get sent to a bowl closer to home, and NIU will have to make the trek south.  The ACC won’t be filling this bowl, so it will go out at large.

International (Toronto)- Temple vs. Rutgers- this would be a pretty good game for Toronto, with two 8+ win teams and an old Big East rivalry of sorts.

EagleBank- Bowling Green vs. Marshall- I think this game will go to a 7 win MAC school, either BGSU or NIU, but they’re going to be left hanging for a week waiting to see if Army loses against Navy as expected.  As far as I can tell, there are no BCS leagues with extra bowl eligible teams, so all the at-large spots should go to non-BCS squads.

Mountain West

As mentioned, I think TCU is Sugar Bowl bound.

Las Vegas- Utah vs. Arizona.  No change from my last estimation, and I don’t think the outcome of this weekends game will even affect this bowl.

Poinsettia (San Deigo)- BYU vs. California.  Again, not changing here, I think this would be a good fit for Team, Fans, and Bowl.

Armed Forces- Air Force vs. Southern Mississippi.  It will be AFA’s third consecutive Armed Forces bowl, but they’re a good fit there and the only other option is Wyoming.

New Mexico (Albuquerque)- Wyoming vs. Nevada.  It’s a tough spot to have to send a mid-pack MWC team, since the top bunch in the WAC is really good, but this game might draw a pretty good crowd.

Humanitarian (Boise, ID)- Unless the arrangement I suggest below plays out somehow, this game will go to an at-large team, probably all the way from the Sun Belt or MAC.  Right now, I’m thinking Ohio since Bowling Green played Boise State earlier this year.

Alternate MWC/WAC bowl possibility: The MWC has five bowls but only four teams for them after TCU heads to the BCS.  The WAC has just three bowls but four teams for them, if Boise doesn’t go to the BCS.  One of the MWC bowls will therefore go at large, but the last two already have WAC ties, so perhaps the Armed Forces bowl will actually go to Fresno State instead of Air Force.  It would make sense to me, but maybe not for the bowl.  This would send Air Force up to the Humanitarian bowl, which would be as good of an at-large matchup as Boise State is going to find at this point.

Sun Belt

New Orleans- Troy vs. East Carolina.  Troy has locked up the bid.

The Sun Belt has deals with the St. Pete, Papa Johns, and Independence bowls if any of those three come up short from their first-choice conferences.  Unfortunately, none of them are going to.

I am projecting Middle Tennessee State to the GMAC bowl, which will have an extra slot available from the ACC and no contractual fill-in.  However, if they lose this weekend to Louisiana Monroe, the Warhawks could take that bid instead since they’ll be at 7 wins and they’re a bit closer.

Western Athletic

As noted, I am tentatively thinking that Boise is going to get into the Fiesta. But just in case, I’m going to double up my WAC predictions.

Humanitarian- Boise to BCS: Idaho vs. Ohio.  The Humanitarian would probably like to have Idaho in since they can’t get Boise, but I’m a lot less sure now that Idaho has slid down to 4th in the conference- it could be looked upon poorly for jumping past two teams that beat the Vandals.  Boise not in BCS: Boise State.  But it’s going to be tough to find a worthy opponent for the Broncos, since there aren’t going to be many big-time teams looking for a bowl home.  Beating up another MAC squad would be a big disappointment for Boise given the season they’ve had.

Of course, if Nevada pulls off the upset this weekend, they they probably will get the spot.

New Mexico- Nevada vs. Wyoming.

Hawaii- Assuming Hawaii doesn’t beat Navy and Wisconsin, I’m still seeing Fresno State vs. SMU if Boise goes to the BCS, or Idaho if they don’t.

Poinsettia- won’t be available to the WAC.

If Boise gets shut out of the big games, I still think it’ll be Fresno out hunting for a bowl, and I think they’ll get one.  The GMAC is a possibility, as is the EagleBank, but I’m not seeing a west coast game that makes a great fit.  Beating Illinois in the final week would be a good way to wave hello to the midwest crowds.

As always, comments are welcome- where are you hoping your team winds up?  Would the BCS stare down the wrath of public sentiment and take the cash grab anyway, leaving Boise State out?  We know they’ve done it before, but maybe they’d rather not go back before congress and explain how a 13-0 team gets left out for a 10-2 school.

Oh, and just because I’m discussing the matter doesn’t mean it’s a good system.  That argument doesn’t fly around here.