We’re now closing in on 90 minutes from what may be the biggest non-conference, non-BCS game of the year. Boise State is leaving the comfort of the Blue Field for the third time this season, taking on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. Both teams rank highly in whatever stat column you look at so we should be in for a great game.
Boise comes in with the #5 scoring offense in America, averaging over 40 points per game. They stand at 20th in total offense, 7th at kickoff returns, and 5th in passing efficiency. Across the ball, Tulsa is 21st in scoring defense despite a blowout to Oklahoma, still only allowing 16 points per game. Total defense is right there, allowing less than 300 yards per in five outings so far.
When Tulsa has the ball, the battle should be just as good. Tulsa’s scoring offense is strong as well, putting up over 32 points per game, better than all but 25 teams. Total offense is well over 400 yards, and 35th in the country. Boise’s defense will be their toughest test at least since the OU game, standing in the top 25 in every major category- pass defense (5th), rush defense (22), total defense (14th- 274 ypg), and scoring defense (13th, 14.4 per game).
Boise’s turnover margin is +5, Tulsa’s is +4, and turnovers could be the ultimate key to this one. In Tulsa’s only loss, they had a legitimate chance to be in the game, or even leading early on, but consecutive first quarter red zone turnovers led straight to Oklahoma touchdowns, and the rout was on.
Tulsa’s big challenge will be to withstand an early crush from Boise State without losing focus, because that’s when Oklahoma demonstrated that they can be vulnerable. A capacity crowd is expected at Chapman Stadium tonight, and advantage Tulsa certainly lacked on the road at OU, and could help level the playing field.
Boise State holds the slight statistical advantage, but this one is almost too close to call. The Vegas prognosticators like Boise State by more than a touchdown, but I suspect it will be closer than that. My guess is that Tulsa will keep close all night long, but Boise should probably win this one with both teams scoring in the 20s.