Mid-Season Report Cards: UCF, SMU, and Tulane
We swing into Conference USA for our next batch of mid year evaluations. Full disclosure- UCF happens to be my alma mater, so my view is undoubtedly clouded by being too close to things there. Take that for what you will.
| UCF |
| Wins: C |
UCF is a pretty average team in a lot of ways- they’ve beaten average teams (at best), and lost to anybody that might be better than them. |
|
Rushing |
Rank |
Passing |
Rank |
Total |
Rank |
Scoring |
Rank |
| Offense: F |
116 |
98 |
189 |
89 |
305 |
106 |
20.5 |
104 |
| Defense: B- |
90 |
10 |
254 |
102 |
344 |
52 |
21.17 |
41 |
|
Punting |
Rank |
Punt Ret |
Rank |
Kick Ret |
Rank |
|
| Special Teams: B |
35 |
76 |
11 |
37 |
26 |
10 |
|
Gained |
Lost |
Margin |
|
| Turnovers: D+ |
10 |
13 |
-3 |
| Final Grade: C |
If the offense could get anything going, then UCF could be pretty decent at the non-BCS level. But they’re not moving the ball and they’re not scoring, leaving the D on the field all day. |
|
|
| Remaining Games: |
at Rice |
|
|
Marshall |
|
at Texas |
|
Houston |
|
Tulane |
|
at UAB |
|
|
| Best Case Scenario: |
4-2. UTEP did set a blueprint for beating Houston, but UCF doesn’t have the offense to pull that off. |
|
|
| Worst Case Scenario: |
2-4. Any team that can put 21+ on the board has at least a chance to beat UCF. |
|
|
| Prediction: |
3-3. I suspect a split between the Marshall & UAB games. 6-6 is looking like it could be enough for a bowl, since C-USA has a pretty good alignment this year. |
| Southern Methodist |
| Wins: C+ |
Two of SMU’s 3 losses have come by 3 in overtime, meaning that only their loss to TCU was by more than that. Mustang fans can be pleased with wins over ECU and UAB as well. |
|
Rushing |
Rank |
Passing |
Rank |
Total |
Rank |
Scoring |
Rank |
| Offense: C |
84 |
112 |
281 |
16 |
365 |
71 |
28.33 |
54 |
| Defense: D- |
177 |
96 |
216 |
64 |
393 |
92 |
30.67 |
102 |
|
Punting |
Rank |
Punt Ret |
Rank |
Kick Ret |
Rank |
|
| Special Teams: C+ |
33 |
104 |
20.11 |
4 |
22.48 |
52 |
|
Gained |
Lost |
Margin |
|
| Turnovers: A |
20 |
15 |
5 |
| Final Grade: C |
SMU is having a great season by recent standards, but other than their passing game, isn’t lighting up the statistical columns anywhere. That should keep them in most games down the stretch, but without a better defensive performance, they’ll struggle to get above .500 |
|
|
| Remaining Games: |
at Houston |
|
|
at Tulsa |
|
Rice |
|
UTEP |
|
at Marshall |
|
Tulane |
|
|
| Best Case Scenario: |
5-1. SMU has the firepower to beat almost anybody in the league, although it’ll be tough to beat Houston in a shootout. |
|
|
| Worst Case Scenario: |
2-4. If the defense keeps getting exploited, the losses could mount. |
|
|
| Prediction: |
4-2. I just don’t see the consistency they need to get past 5 of the 6, but I think SMU is heading to the Hawaii Bowl for a June Junes reunion show. |
| Tulane |
| Wins: D |
Tulane’s only 1-A win is over Army, which may prove very helpful to the league, since C-USA has a contingency bowl bid if Army isn’t eligible. Unfortunately, Tulane isn’t going to benefit if they can’t beat anybody in the league. |
|
Rushing |
Rank |
Passing |
Rank |
Total |
Rank |
Scoring |
Rank |
| Offense: D |
130 |
81 |
217 |
63 |
346 |
82 |
16.83 |
111 |
| Defense: D- |
186 |
104 |
226 |
71 |
412 |
103 |
35.67 |
114 |
|
Punting |
Rank |
Punt Ret |
Rank |
Kick Ret |
Rank |
|
| Special Teams: F |
25.55 |
120 |
4 |
106 |
19.59 |
95 |
|
Gained |
Lost |
Margin |
|
| Turnovers: F |
6 |
14 |
-8 |
| Final Grade: D- |
Could be an F. Tulane is mediocre in its best categories, and horrible in others. The key stat is that while their offense is 82nd, they’re not putting up any points, and the D is letting other teams score at will. |
|
|
| Remaining Games: |
at Southern Miss |
|
|
at LSU |
|
UTEP |
|
at Rice |
|
at UCF |
|
at SMU |
|
|
| Best Case Scenario: |
1-5. Rice is the only team left on the slate that has looked worse than Tulane so far. |
|
|
| Worst Case Scenario: |
0-6. Rice could be 0-9 and getting desparate. Tulane could lose that one too. |
|
|
| Prediction: |
1-5. Even if it’s not Rice, Tulane could still surprise someone on any given Saturday. Could be the end for head coach Bob Toledo. |