The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well. Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.
The Toledo Rockets have had an erratic, confusing start to their season. They started out by challenging Purdue before fading late, then stomping Colorado when that was all the rage. Then, for all the firepower they had shown in the first two weeks, they got shut out by Ohio State in week 3. Two mid-major wins later, they get surprised by Western Michigan, who had just lost 38-3 to Northern Illinois.
- Wins: C. After upsetting Colorado, I would have expected Toledo to be 4-2 at this point, and the loss to WMU could haunt them at the end of the season.
- Offense: A. Toledo claims the 9th rated total offense in the country, racking up an average of 470 yards per game. The scoring offense lags a little, 36th nationally, but still putting in31.5 points per game even with the shutout to OSU.
- Defense: F. And herein lies the problem- that blazing offense is saddled with a total defense ranked 113th and the next-to-last scoring defense in America. Just a few stops and Toledo could be 5-1 instead of 3-3.
- Special Teams: F. Compounding the problem with the defense is the poor special teams numbers. Next-to-last in punting, 106th in punt returns at less than 5 yards per crack, and 103rd in kickoff returns.
- Turnovers: C+. Toledo is +1 on margin, gaining 13 but losing 12.
- Grading Curve: No Change. Yes, they had Ohio State, but they also had FIU and Ball State, a combined 1-10 this year.
- Final Grade: C+. The offense is so good, but the defense is so bad. Just a little consistency and Toledo could still win the MAC, but now they might need to win out to pull it off.
Remaining Games:
- Northern Illinois
- Temple
- at Miami
- at Central Michigan
- Eastern Michigan
- at Bowling Green
Best Case Scenario: 6-0 is still a plausible best case, if the defense just gets marginally better. There is nobody on the list that Toledo can’t outgun if they slow the other team down just a little bit.
Worst Case Scenario:2-4, if the offense runs out of steam and the defense collapses (stays collapsed?).
Prediction:4-2. I just don’t see the consistency to call for them to run the table or beat the best teams in the West. I think the style of play will help them muddle through what could be a big group of 6-6 and 7-5 teams to earn a bowl bid.