The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well. Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.
The Memphis Tigers are no stranger to slow starts. Starting in 2005, their 6 game records have been 3-3, 1-5, 2-4, and 3-3 last year after a 0-3 start. In every year except the 1-5 start, they’ve wound up in bowl games. Now, they’re sitting at 2-4 but coming off a win against UTEP and hoping that’s the start of some momentum yet again.
- Wins: D. Their only wins are against 1-AA Tennessee Martin and the erratic UTEP team. Losses to UCF and Middle Tennessee, neither of which looking like a stellar team, hurt.
- Offense: D. The total offense isn’t horrendous, sitting 77th overall and 6th in the league with 352, but they’re not turning those yards into enough points- 95th nationally with only 22 ppg.
- Defense: D. Total defense is 105th, but scoring defense is a little bit better, 87th overall holding at 28 points per game.
- Special Teams: C. Punting is outstanding, netting 39 yards per punt (which explains how the scoring D can be better than the total D), but their own punt returns are an abysmal 3.1 yards. Kickoff returns are near the national median.
- Turnovers: D. Memphis is -3, which is about where most 2-4 teams would be.
- Grading Curve: Points off. Sagarin puts Memphis’ schedule at #120, suggesting that 2-4 against a pretty weak group of teams suggests things are not good in Elvis country.
- Final Grade: D. Memphis just isn’t getting the job done against average competition, although the UTEP game gives a glimmer of hope.
Remaining Games:
- at Southern Mississippi
- East Carolina
- at Tennessee
- UAB
- at Houston
- at Tulsa
Best Case Scenario:3-3. There are teams on the schedule that Memphis has caused problems for in the past, and teams that are capable of overlooking the Tigers.
Worst Case Scenario: 0-6. Every team left on the list has had a better start than Memphis, and the Tigers will probably not be favored in any of their remaining games.
Prediction: 1-5. I’m not the first person to declare Memphis DOA, and they’ve come back from the dead too many times for this to be a smart pick, but I just don’t think they have more than one surprise in them this fall. Look for a new coaching regime there in 2010.