The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well. Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.
We got a good look at the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks last Tuesday night when they held off Arkansas State in an important Sun Belt showdown. That win put them into the conference lead, which they now share with Troy at 3-0 in the league. These league wins are vital for Monroe’s postseason chances, as non-conference games with 3 strong BCS league teams are bad for bowl eligibility.
- Wins: B. ULM has gotten the job done against the Sun Belt and the 1-AA team on the schedule, but is 0-2 against Texas and Arizona State, understandably.
- Offense: B. The Warhawks have the 21st ranked rushing attack in the country at 194 ypg, and leading the Sun Belt. Passing isn’t as bad as some top rushing teams, but still just 200 ypg. Overall, they have the #46 total offense and the #36 scoring offense- which is enough to get the job done against most of the Sun Belt.
- Defense: C. Allowing 59 points to Texas never helps defensive stats, but neither does allowing FIU to score 35 on you. Total defense is dead average at 60th overall, but scoring defense is lower at 84th, 27.8 points per game. I suspect both of these numbers will improve against teams like WKU and North Texas in the second half.
- Special Teams: C-. Would be worse, but net punting is 19th overall, so they do have some good coverage and good kicking there. But the return game is problematic- 108th in punt returns at 3.71 yards and 86th in kickoff returns. More yardage here means the offense would have the chance to go from good to great, especially in terms of putting even more points on the board.
- Turnovers: B-. +2 overall, which they’ll need to continue to work on, given their problems on special teams. 13 taken and 11 given are pretty average in both column.
- Grading Curve: No Change. Like many good non-BCS teams, ULM has lost the games you would have definitely expected, won the toss-up game, and beaten the teams you expect them to beat. If they keep it up, the first bowl game in ULM history is within reach.
- Final Grade: B. ULM fans have a lot to be excited about- they’re better than a lot of teams on their schedule, they have great momentum, and they’re set to do things they haven’t done in the past.
Remaining Games:
- at Kentucky
- at Troy
- at North Texas
- Western Kentucky
- at Louisiana Lafayette
- Middle Tennessee State
Best Case Scenario: 5-1. A team like Kentucky is a tough task for anybody from the Sun Belt, but if Monroe keeps things going, they have a decent chance to get through the league without another loss.
Worst Case Scenario: 2-4. If things go badly, they do still have some of the best of the league left too, with Troy and later when MTSU comes to town, along with their in-state, in-conference rivals at Lafayette.
Prediction: 4-2. 5-1 would not surprise me, but there are a few pretty good teams left, and 8-4 would qualify as a successful season for the Warhawks. The Sun Belt’s bowl arrangements are complex, depending on other leagues to come up short, but if the slots are available, I think Louisiana Monroe should be filling one this season.