Mid-Season Report Card: Idaho

The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well.  Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.

I won’t lie, I did not see Idaho coming.  I predicted the usual WAC season- Boise runs away with it, Fresno, Hawaii, and maybe Louisiana Tech fight for second and third.  And while Idaho hasn’t played any of those four yet, their 5-1 start is impressive nonetheless.  Idaho is now just one game short of bowl eligibility and picked up top 25 votes- the first time that’s ever happened in midseason.

• Wins: A. 5 wins, and a not-quite-blown-out loss to Washington is as good a start as Idaho has had in half of forever.  They haven’t even won 5 games total since 2000.  Several of the wins have been close, but at the end of the day, nobody puts the margin in the win column.
• Offense:  A-. The 31st ranked total offense in the country, with 421 ypg, on the back of the #22 passing attack.  In a league full of powerful offenses, Idaho appears to be ready to compete.  Scoring Offense is trailing a bit, at 28.67 ppg, only good for 54th.
• Defense: B-. Idaho clocks in with the #56 total defense nationally, allowing 350 ypg, but their pass defense is down at 99th.  This was clearly visible in the San Jose State game last week- SJSU was passing on them almost at will during parts of the game.
• Special Teams: C. #16 overall with a 15 yard punt return average, meaning that 15 extra percent of the field is behind the offense when the set to work- a nice stat to have working for you.  Punting has been a problem though- only averaging 30.6 yards per punt, one of the worst averages going.  Kick returns are right around average.
• Turnovers:B. +3 on the season.
• Grading Curve: No Change. In hindsight, Idaho has beaten teams that were inferior to them 5/5, and got beat by a better Washington team.  Sagarin gives them #62 in strength of schedule, which feels about right.  Tougher games do lie ahead for the Vandals.
• Final Grade: A. Idaho has done everything asked of them so far, and is on the way to a special season, even if things don’t go perfectly down the stretch.

Remaining Games:

• Hawaii
• at Nevada
• Louisiana Tech
• Fresno State
• at Boise State
• Utah State

Best Case Scenario: 5-1 is a legitimate possibility.  Having La Tech and Fresno at home could be a difference maker, although I do think the pass defense is a little to sketchy to suggest that a win over Boise State is very likely, although that is 6 weeks away.

Worst Case Scenario: 2-4. Only if the wheels come off a bit and the defense doesn’t step up in places.  But even a 2-4 second half has them 7-5 and gives them a shot at a bowl, especially if Boise frees up a spot by going to a BCS game.

Prediction:4-2. The schedule is pretty stacked with the best of the WAC still ahead, but there’s no reason to think they can’t hang with most of them.  At 9-3 and 2nd or 3rd in the WAC, any one of several western bowls will be happy to extend the invitation.