The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well. Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.
Colorado State stormed to a 3-0 start, dispatching Colorado and Nevada along the way. They looked like one of the best non-BCS teams in the country, and might have even challenged for a top 3 slot in the Mountain West. Since then, they’ve fallen away badly, dropping 3 in a row against BYU, Idaho, and Utah. These losses are understandable, as all 3 are excellent teams. Together, they have a combined record of 14-3. Nonetheless, the Rams had hoped to be among those schools at the top, but it appears they are still about one level below.
- Wins: B-. If not for the schedule, it’d be a C, since I like to see 4 wins to start handing out Bs. But beating the Buffalos and Nevada, who is suddenly unstoppable, is worth a slight upgrade.
- Offense:B. Their passing offense is third in the MWC, at 249 a game, good for 34th overall, part of a total offense ranked 60th nationally and 5th in the league. Scoring offense is a little behind that trend, 25.17 ppg and 77th in the country, still a respectable slot.
- Defense:C+. The total defense is ranked 69th, allowing 370 yards per game, which isn’t bad except it’s only enough for 6th in the league. Pass defense has been a particular problem, although BYU is bad for anyone’s pass numbers. Scoring defense ranks even lower with 26.17 ppg.
- Special Teams: B. Poor punting numbers are helped by good return numbers. 3rd in the league in Kickoff Returns helps with the scoring offense, but better punting would help the defense a bit.
- Turnovers: A. Currently at +6 on the season, and CSU has not given up a fumble all year.
- Grading Curve: Bonus Points, but not a lot of them. CSU’s schedule is painfully front-loaded, with their first 3 MWC games coming against the league’s 3 powerhouses. Add in a resurgent Idaho team and they’ve had a heck of a schedule so far. Sagarin ranks their schedule as the 35th toughest in D-1 this year.
- Final Grade: B-. The Rams had potential to grab maybe one more win there, with the Idaho game slipping away, but Idaho is a stout team themselves and enjoying their best season in a long time. The key for CSU is to pick it up after the TCU game and beat the lesser teams in the MWC and make a run at a bowl berth.
Remaining Games:
- at TCU
- San Diego State
- Air Force
- at UNLV
- at New Mexico
- Wyoming
Best Case Scenario: CSU gets back up, proves that they’re at the best team behind the big 3, and finishes out 5-1 for an 8-4 season, and earns a bowl invitation.
Worst Case Scenario: The Rams wind up demoralized after TCU makes it four straight losses, and they wind up dropping 4 of their last 6.
Prediction:3-3 or 4-2. I think Air Force and Wyoming are too good this year to predict that CSU beats them both, especially with the rivalry factor in both games. If UNLV ever rebounds, they could be a tough out too. A 7-5 record may be enough to get through to a bowl game, but it could be tight since there aren’t a ton of bids to go around.