The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well. Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.
For our 10th report card, we look just a couple hours up the road from the last one, to the Bowling Green Falcons. This works especially well since the two schools play each other this weekend. Unlike Ball State, and most of the MAC, Bowling Green kicked off the season with a pretty big non-conference win, beating defending Sun Belt champion Troy. The MAC was winless against the Belt last year, so this looked a lot like the start of something good for the Falcons. Unfortunately, they went from there into a 4 game losing skid against a set of pretty good teams- Missouri, Marshall, Boise State, and Ohio. Last week’s last minute win over Kent State may have put them back on the right track.
- Wins: D. The schedule hasn’t been easy, with 2 defending conference champs and the defending Big 12 North winner too, but 2 wins is still a disappointing start.
- Offense: B-. We find an example here of how statistics don’t always equal wins, but they may portend good things for the rest of the fall. BGSU has the nation’s #4 passing attack (!), but the Falcons are dead last in rushing. Together, they’re #43 (3rd in the MAC) in overall yardage, but down at #80 in scoring offense. I haven’t seen enough footage to say for sure, but I suspect the inability to run the ball is costing them points in the red zone. If they can keep the passing game healthy but find a better balance, it’s not too late to contend in the MAC, especially the East.
- Defense: D. Logically, if you’re 2-4 with good offensive numbers, the defense must be suspect. The defense is allowing 382 ypg, but worse yet, 31 points per game, 102nd overall and 10th in the conference. The Falcons have given up over 35 points (not all on defense) in each of the last three games- they have to stop the bleeding fast before the season gets away from them.
- Special Teams: C-. A little above the national average in punt returns, a bit below it in Punting, and pretty bad in Kickoff returns, averaging only 18.87 yards.
- Turnovers: C+. Even, with 7 given and 7 taken, which is the lowest number of the dozen or so teams that are currently even on turnover margin. The offense is doing a good job of protecting the ball, but the defense hasn’t rewarded them for it yet.
- Grading Curve: Bonus Points. Like I mentioned, Bowling Green’s schedule is one of the toughest outside the BCS- Sagarin puts it at 29th. They knocked off Troy, held their own against Missouri, and didn’t schedule a 1-AA cupcake this year either.
- Final Grade: C. I think the record is hiding a pretty good team that may be loaded for a lot of success against a soft division from here on.
Remaining Games:
- at Ball State
- Central Michigan
- at Buffalo
- at Miami OH
- Akron
- Toledo
Best Case Scenario: 5-1. If the defense comes to life, they could stop Toledo, but I suspect CMU is too tall an order at this stage. Whether that would be enough to win the East remains to be seen, and since they do not play Temple this year, the tiebreaker is impossible to predict at this stage.
Worst Case Scenario: 3-3. I will be shocked if the Falcons lose more than one more game in the East with the draw they have.
Prediction: 4-2. I just don’t trust the defense enough to think they can beat one of the teams from the West and not get tripped up inside the division one way or another. A 6-6 season is probably not enough to secure a bowl bid, unless the MAC is able to find a couple at-large bids in bowl without enough eligible teams.