Mid-Season Report Card: Boise State

The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well.  Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.

Hey, look, this Boise State bunch is pretty good.  Debuting at 4th in the first BCS Poll, the Broncos are the first non-BCS team that meets all the requirements for a realistic shot at a National Championship Game bid- ranked high at the beginning of the season, a couple quality opponents, and winning.  Now, I know the college football illuminati are getting nervous about actually putting them in the game, and they’re going to need a lot of help, since I suspect they’ll be the last choice behind the SEC guys, Texas, Iowa, and Cincinnati.  They also have to get through a slate of decent-to-good WAC teams without slipping, which could be just as hard.

• Wins: A. Oregon is tearing it up in the Pac-10 and is now a Rose Bowl candidate, Fresno State is back on their feet, and Tulsa still sits at 4-2 and should be a 9 or 10 win team this year.  Yes, they’ve got some dud teams on the schedule too, but not too many.
• Offense: A. Boise State’s scoring offense is 7th in the country, and the total offense is a solid 24th with 429.5 ypg.  Nobody has held Boise to less than 28 since Oregon (19) on opening night.
• Defense: A. The Broncos are sitting at 14th overall in total defense, allowing just 277 ypg and 15.5 points per game, good for 18th there.  They’ve only let in more than 21 once, 34 to Fresno State.
• Special Teams:  B. Only the punt returning is keeping them from an A here too- buried in the middle, 61st overall.  Meanwhile, they have the #7 punting unit in the country and are 12th in kick returns.
• Turnovers:  B. Boise is only +3, which isn’t bad, but there’s room to get better too.  Only 8 given away, and 11 taken back.
• Grading Curve: No Change. Boise is meeting expectations, but they’re probably going to have to do more if they want to sneak into that title game.  If you’re reading this, you know that Tulsa and Idaho and Nevada are good teams- but the pollsters in New York and Atlanta and Dallas don’t know this, and if Boise isn’t winning those games by 20, they think something is wrong.
• Final Grade: A. Hard to find fault with the best overall numbers of any team outside the BCS, and just about any team inside it too.

Remaining Games:

Like Navy and a couple other teams, Boise has 13 games this year, thanks to the NCAA’s allowing of an extra games for teams that travel to Hawaii.

• at Hawaii
• San Jose State
• at Louisiana Tech
• Idaho
• at Utah State
• Nevada
• New Mexico State

Best Case Scenario: 7-0, with other teams in the top 5 getting taken out by conference foes, and on into the championship game.

Worst Case Scenario: There are two, which could be equally disappointing: They drop a conference game or two to the likes of Nevada or Idaho and get bounced out of the national picture, or they go 7-0…but get jumped by a TCU team that’s gaining steam and may have a better strength of schedule when it’s all over.  They got edged out by Utah last year, and it could possibly happen again.

Prediction: 7-0 and in a BCS bowl, but too much has to happen to get them into the big one.