Mid-Season Report Card: Army

The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well.  Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.

The Army Black Knights have muddled through one of the worst schedules in Division 1.  Their first two wins came over two teams who are presently a combined 0-11, while losing to the likes of Duke and Tulane.  Then in week 6, they surprised a struggling Vanderbilt team (only 1-A win: Rice) with a 16-13 OT win.

• Wins: C-. Combined record of teams Army has beaten is 2-15.  Teams that have beaten Army are also only 8-10.
• Offense:  D-. Army has the #8 rushing unit in the country at 229.5 per game.  But remember when I mentioned that Navy & Air Force are 118 and 119 in passing?  Yeah, Army is 120: Dead Last.  And way behind, too- 64 yards per game.  This brings their total out to only 294, 111th in the country.  Without having seen much of them playing, I suspect that teams are onto the rush attack and willing to make Army beat them in the air- and that’s not happening.
• Defense:  B. Army’s total defense is a nice 28th nationally, with scoring defense just below at 41st.  I don’t know for sure if this is a function of the soft teams they’ve played against, or if their D is really that stout- we’ll know more in a few weeks.
• Special Teams:  C-. Army is 56th in net punting, but down at 91st in punt returns and 79th at kick returns.  The poor return game is not helping matters when the offense is struggling.
• Turnovers: B. Army is in that big tie for 32nd at +4, which is undoubtedly keeping them in some of these games.
• Grading Curve:  Points off. I’ve beaten the weak schedule to death.  Sagarin has it at 132nd in all of D-1.
• Final Grade: C-. They can’t really control their schedule, and they’ve beaten half the teams they’ve played, but a good team probably could have found another win or two.

Remaining Games:

• at Temple
• Rutgers
• at Air Force
• VMI
• at North Texas
• at Navy

Best Case Scenario: 3-3. I think they play a couple schools with too much offense to expect a win, but there are wins possible there.  If they can pull off 3-3 or better, they’re locked into the Eagle Bank Bowl in December.

Worst Case Scenario: 1-5. Most of the teams Army has left have better offenses for sure, and some of them have defense as good or better.  If things go badly, Army could stumble in at 4-8.

Prediction: 2-4. I just don’t think Army has the team to beat most of the squads left on their schedule- it’s going to be much tougher than the first half was.