Mid-Season Report Card: Air Force

The Mid-Season Report Cards are a subjective look using objective numbers with a look toward the remainder of the season as well.  Teams are being reviewed in random order once they reach 6 games.

Our Mountain West Marathon concludes, at least for this week, with Air Force (ed note- well, it would have, if I had pushed the publish button on the Wyoming entry).  Thanks to a bye week, Air Force and UNLV both have Wyoming as their next game, so this is like two game previews done right here.  Air Force has played extremely well this year, and with a little more luck, could honestly have been 6-0.  They lost to Minnesota while the Gophers were opening a brand new stadium by 7, lost on the road at Navy in overtime, and went toe-to-toe with TCU last weekend, falling by 3 when they couldn’t recover an onside kick that could have led to a chance to win.  But despite the losses, Air Force has plenty of reason to be optimistic going forward.

• Wins: C+. Let a couple chances slip away, particularly with a missed field goal in OT against Navy, but getting the job done against the non-top-3 teams in the MWC.
• Offense: C+. Ah, the enigma that is service academy offensive scheming.  Air Force has the #3 rushing game in America, putting up 281 yards per game on the ground, only 7 yards behind Nevada in the lead.  Meanwhile, their air attack is, perhaps ironically, next-to-last.  77 yards per game in the air.  118th? Navy.  120th? Stay tuned, they’re next, but it won’t surprise you.  But combined, the 359 yards is only good enough for 73rd overall and 6th in the MWC, so they’re going to have to step it up somewhere.
• Defense: A. Nobody has put up more than 20 against Air Force, and the scoring defense is 13th overall as a result.  They’re also holding opponents to just 282 ypg, good for 18th nationally.  Things are even better on the turnover front.
  
• Special Teams:  A. 16th in net punting at just under 39 yards, 33rd in punt returns, and 16th in kickoff returns (see, they’re just good on the ground).
• Turnovers: A+. Air Force leads the country in turnover margin at an incredible +16.  That’s 4 clear of second place.  With those kind of turnovers, I don’t know why AFA isn’t blowing people out.
• Grading Curve:  No Change. The Falcons have played the 98th most difficult schedule, and they’ve won and lost the right games along the way.  We’ll see how they do against the rest of the MWC soon.
• Final Grade: B. The stout defense should keep them in nearly every single game- if they could just find a glimmer of a passing game, Air Force would move from bowl contender to league championship contender.

Remaining Games:

• Wyoming
• at Utah
• at Colorado State
• Army
• UNLV
• at BYU

Best Case Scenario: 5-1. This team, on the right day, could beat Utah or BYU.  Both come on the road, and neither is an easy task, but it’s certainly not unimaginable.

Worst Case Scenario: 2-4. Service Academy games are never gimmies, and they still have some good MWC teams, if things all go wrong they could get beat a handful of times.

Prediction: 3-3. If we accept that BYU and Utah are probably losses, then I think winning 3 of the remaining 4 is about right.  But I really wouldn’t be shocked if they come out with an upset and wind up 4-2 or even better.