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Finally we come to the end of a stacked list of weekend previews. Whether intentionally or because of crappy tv deals, 8 of the 9 MWC teams play on Saturday (Utah was last night, obviously). We have a mix of games where MWC teams should dominate, competitive games, and at least one that probably will not go well.
2:00 PM, the Mtn- Colorado “at” Colorado State (Denver): CSU did beat Colorado on their turf last year, but that turned out to be a) a fluke and b) against a CU team that was awful for the first half of the year. Of course, history suggests that Colorado probably won’t get any better until Dan Hawkins exits the building, so who knows how this one will go. Line: Colorado by 12. That’s way too many, even if CSU did collapse down the stretch last year. Colorado probably does win, on the order of 24-17, but don’t be surprised if CSU pulls the upset again.
2:00 PM- Northwestern State at Air Force: Northwestern State went 0-11 last year. Air Force should be able to name the score. It will probably be a lot. No line.
3:30 PM- New Mexico at #11 Oregon: New Mexico is a bad football team. Oregon should be a good football team. What more analysis do you want? Line: Oregon by 34. Hard to say for sure what Oregon will do against an overmatched opponent- last year their only non-BCS opponents were Boise State & Utah. They did beat Cal by 39 and Washington State by 46, but that was a little later on in the season too. Still, I think they should roll through this one, 52-3.
7:00 PM, CBS College- Washington at BYU: This is a quality game for BYU, even though it’s not getting as much national attention as a couple other games are. Jake Locker comes to Provo looking to start a Heisman campaign, while on the other side the Cougars are looking to establish a new starting quarterback and address some other openings. Line: BYU by 2.5. This line surprises me, but I gather that Washington doesn’t have the oddsmakers convinced yet. Neither team has me convinced, but I hesitatingly like the mild upset, Washington 31-20.
7:45 PM, ESPN- #22 Oregon State at #7 TCU (Cowboy Stadium): This is the big one for Saturday, the second of the three BCS vs. non-BCS games where both teams are in one or both polls. TCU comes back loaded and will be right in the thick of the championship chase, while Oregon State heads into the season with a sophomore QB making his first start. Line: TCU by 13. That seems like a lot to me, although TCU’s offense could break the game wide open. I’ll cautiously say TCU wins 34-24.
8:00 PM- Nicholls State at San Diego State: Last year Nicholls State lost to Air Force 72-0 on week one and went 3-8 overall. SDSU may not hang 72, but they should still win comfortably. No line.
9:00 PM- Southern Utah at Wyoming: Southern Utah went 5-6 a year ago, losing to Utah State and SDSU along the way. Wyoming should handle the Thunderbirds easily. No line.
11:00 PM, Versus- #12 Wisconsin at UNLV: UNLV has been improving in recent years, but are replacing a coach this season and look like they’re probably outmatched by the Badgers. Line: Wisconsin by 20.5. This is the first of four games before they get to Big 10 play, so I’m just not sure that they’ll leave the starters in long enough to ring up that many points. I think they’ll be happy to leave a long road trip with a win in the neighborhood of 35-21.
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We interrupt our weekend previews to take a look at tonight’s games. We’ll have more in-depth looks at these weeknight games as the season unfolds, especially when they’re conference games that actually mean something. Anyway..
5:00 PM- Villanova (FCS) at Temple: Villanova won the FCS championship (you know, in a playoff) last year, a season that included beating Temple in the first week. Temple really should still be better, considering they’re among the favorites in the MAC, but Villanova is no Southeastern Louisiana. No line.
8:00 PM- Arizona at Toledo: Arizona is quietly getting some buzz as a contender in the Pac-10, but Toledo is working to get a new QB up and running in an offense that could run with anybody last year. Meanwhile Arizona has most of their pieces coming back from a pretty good 8-5 team last year. Line: Arizona by 16. This is a line where you go “hmm, that sounds about right” and no obvious choice seems to pop out. But since I’m not sure Toledo’s offense can pick up where it left off last year, I think Arizona wins this one 34-14.
That’s it, just two games. We’ll be previewing the weekend out west this afternoon.
The weekend is light for the WAC, with three teams playing last night, one off, and the last playing on Monday. Pity our friends in New Mexico who have to sit this week out.
7:00 PM- Utah State at #8 Oklahoma: Fitting, perhaps, that we move from Sun Belt blowouts on to this game. I think Utah State should be an improved team this year, but kicking it off at Oklahoma is not a great way to get the ball rolling. Line: Oklahoma by 33. Last year Oklahoma posted wins of 64, 45, and 55 points when the opportunities presented themselves, so 33 is certainly within range. Let’s say 48-7.
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The Sun Belt got an upset last night, although not the one they might have preferred. They’ll have a lot more opportunities this weekend, but I don’t have a good feeling about any of them. Also, I said I’d put Navy & Army here when they don’t play Fringe schools, but Navy plays on Monday so I’ll get them then.
12:21 PM, SEC Network- Louisiana at #21 Georgia: The Rajin’ Cajuns could make a game of this one for a while, but these games against the SEC always come down to depth, and most non-BCS teams just don’t have enough. Line: Georgia by 28. Seems high to me, Georgia should win comfortably but not by that much. Probably something like 38-17.
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We continue working our way across the country looking at games lined up for Saturday & Sunday. CUSA got off to a bad start Thursday night and will be looking to get things stabilized over the weekend. There are a bunch of FCS games lined up, but also a couple more games that could get ugly. All games are on Saturday except the last two, all times eastern, you get the picture by now.
3:30 PM, ESPN- #4 Texas at Rice (Reliant Stadium): Look out, this could get ugly. Rice should be better than last year’s 2-10 team, but this won’t be the time or place to figure out if they are or not. Line: Texas by 30.5. The question with lines like this one is not ‘can’ Texas win by that much, but ‘will they?’ Looking to last year, they won their first two games by 39 and 31, then won their other two C-USA games by 32 and 57. So yes, I’d say Texas will probably cover that line, let’s say 49-10. And that’s way more than I planned to write on this game.
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It was not a pretty night for non-BCS teams across the country last night, particularly those going up against BCS conference schools. It could have been worse- nobody lost to a FCS school, although some tried. A quick rundown of last night’s action follows.
Lots of good stuff lined up for today- Friday night football preview and weekend previews for four conferences, at the very least. Happy College Colors Day. Flags up!
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Weekend previews will appear in this space on Thursdays and Fridays, to look at the games happening on Saturday and some Sundays. Of course, weeknight games will get special attention, with posts of their own.
Last year, the Mid American Conference had an abysmal opening week. This one should be better, with a ton of FCS games and even some upset potential in the bigger games. We hit the Ball State, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Kent State and Northern Illinois games from tonight in our earlier posts, and we’ll give Toledo & Temple a once-over tomorrow. For now, let’s see what the weekend holds for the rest of the MAC. All games are Saturday, all times Eastern, all rankings USA Today, and lines are from Vegas.com and subject to change before kickoff.
*When Army & Navy play a non-BCS team, we’ll just lump them in with their opponents. When they play against the BCS, I’ll probably include them with the Sun Belt, since they have only 9 teams and are generally in the East.
12:00 PM, ESPN- Miami at #3 Florida: Obviously, this is not a game that many people have the RedHawks penciled in to win. Keeping it close to halftime will be an accomplishment, but after that it’s tough to compete against the depth of an elite program, especially in the 2 PM Florida heat. Line: Gators by 36.5. That’s a lot of points for a team that’s going to probably lead early and get some young players on the field. I’d take Miami plus more than five touchdowns.
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We’re halfway through looking at just one night worth of football, and we have 14 weeks of this goodness. Ahh, feels nice, right? Ok, back to your previews. Once again, all times eastern, lines from Vegas.com, and rankings are from the coaches poll.
8:00 PM- Florida Atlantic at UAB: This is the only game of the night featuring two non-BCS opponents going at it. Both teams have question marks, with UAB trying to replace QB Joe Webb, and FAU replacing just about everything but the quarterback. UAB should have a substantial edge here, but these types of games are hard to read in week 1. Line: UAB by 14. That seems generous- for FAU. UAB won the same game last year by 27, and I think they might do it again.
8:00 PM, Regional TV- Northern Illinois at Iowa State: NIU is hoping that this game is the coming out party for a big 2010 season. They’re stacked and the favorite to win the MAC, but ISU won’t be a pushover game just because they aren’t a national power. That said, if the Cyclones are looking ahead to Iowa, they could find themselves in trouble. Line: Iowa State by 4.5. I like NIU’s chances of winning this game a lot. I like their chances of keeping within four even more, I’d take NIU plus the points.
8:00 PM- Southeastern Louisiana (FCS) at Tulane: The SE Louisiana Lions went 6-5 in 2009. Tulane better win this one, because they’re not going to get much of a chance against Ole Miss, Houston, or Rutgers. Or many other teams after that. No line.
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There are so many games going on tonight that it’s going to take at least two posts. It’s a beautiful thing. Happy College Football Day, everyone. We’ll go vaguely from east to west on this thing. My plan for this year is to offer a little more opinion on potential outcomes, for better or for worse. All times Eastern, lines courtesy of Vegas.com. Let’s go.
7:00 PM – Southeast Missouri State (FCS) at Ball State: The SE Missouri Redhawks went 2-9 last year. That is the extent of my knowledge of Ball State’s opponents. The Ball State Cardinals might be a decent team this year and should win easily. No line.
7:00 PM – Rhode Island (FCS) at Buffalo: The Rhode Island Rams went 1-10 last year, and that is all I know about Buffalo’s guests. Once again, they should be no match for Buffalo, new coach and all. No line.
7:00 PM – Hampton (FCS) at Central Michigan: As you have probably figured out, there won’t be much time spent researching these 1-AA opponents. The Hampton Pirates were 5-6 last year, and again should not stand in the Chippewas way. As usual for FCS games, no line. If you find one offshore, just stay away, Vegas dodges them for a reason.
7:00 PM – Murray State (FCS) at Kent State: The Murray State Racers went 3-8 last year. I could have just copy/pasted these first four, huh? Kent State better not lose. No line.
Now, on to the good stuff.
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Today is the day. All the talk of recruiting, GPA, realignment, coaching changes, Senate hearings, lawsuits, transfers, arrests and everything else goes out the window. At least until Tuesday because there’s no games Tuesday. Football is finally ready to kick off.
Here on the Fringe, we attempt to preview any given weeknight game as best we can, and we will have our Weeknight Football preview a little later today. But for now, the first of our weekly features including the BCS Buster Watch and my non-BCS Top 25. So here we go.
BCS Buster Watch
Currently on the watch: Everybody. All 54 teams are presently undefeated. So instead, here are 10 teams besides Boise State, TCU, and Utah that could make a run at the dream season, or at least stay undefeated long enough to garner a little attention. These teams are picked because they could (not will) make it to about 4-0 and do it with a worthwhile resume. In no particular order, except for alphabetical by the order their conference pages are sitting on my desk:
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